HEADLINES: • CEZ: government may try to include support for coal plants in draft gas bill NEUTRAL • Wizz Air: extends compensation agreement with PW until YE26 NEUTRAL • mBank: sees PLN 907m of FX mortgage saga costs in 4Q24E NEUTRAL • Mo-BRUK: update on increased fees in Wałbrzych for 2018 NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: agrees to acquire Invia Group for c.EUR 240m POSITIVE • Huuuge Games: December bookings estimate jumps by 18% mom, to USD 13m POSITIVE • Ten Square Games: December bookings estimat...
We put our coverage of the following stocks UNDER REVIEW, with immediate effect: Fondul Proprietatea Globalworth Ignitis Group Philip Morris Piraeus Port Authority We caution against using the forecasts, ratings and price target guidance issued previously on these stocks.
EME Equity Market – March 2024 Market performance – mixed performances in March, with the Romanian BET outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 0.4% mom in USD in March. The Romanian BET reported the strongest performance, adding 7.1% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Czech PX and the Polish WIG20 (+4.1% and 1.0% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). Greece saw a relatively muted performance (-0.2% mom in EUR terms), while Hungary (-1.1% mom in EUR terms) and Tür...
HEADLINES: • Tofas: fortune favours the bold (stays BUY) • LPP: 4Q23 in line with prelims; FY24E guidance maintained; stellar rollout plans NEUTRAL • Aselsan: strong pre-IAS29 4Q23 results, bullish FY24E guidance POSITIVE • Hungary macro: MNB turns cautious, with a slower pace of rate cuts • Logo Yazilim: weak 4Q23 results, but the details matter NEGATIVE • Eurowag: takeaways from the 2H23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: key takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call POSITIVE • Ten Square G...
HEADLINES: • Ten Square Games: 4Q23 adjusted EBITDA 8% above our forecast, but trading update disappoints NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: 4Q23 results review – adjusted EBITDA up 3% yoy, in line with the consensus POSITIVE • Colt CZ Group SE: weak 4Q23 results, but bullish FY24E guidance NEGATIVE • Fondul Proprietatea: proposes RON 0.06 DPS (11.8% dividend yield) POSITIVE • PKO BP: new acting CEO and two new board members appointed; more to come; but CRO Mazur stays • CEZ: starts divestment of Polis...
HEADLINES: • OTP Bank: 4Q23 profits largely in line; 2024E guidance assumes continuation of profits, but ROE is likely start to normalise • Alpha Bank: 4Q23 highlights • Eurobank: 4Q23 highlights • Fondul Proprietatea: Court of Appeal admits Fund’s request to annul share capital increase decision at Bucharest Airports POSITIVE • Arcelik: CMA approves Arcelik-Whirlpool Deal POSITIVE • DataWalk: key takeaways from the preliminary 4Q23 earnings call POSITIVE • KazMunayGas: 4Q23E results preview ...
EME Equity Market – February 2024 Market performance – a positive February, with the Polish WIG20 outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 3.7% mom in USD in February. The Polish WIG20 saw the strongest performance, adding 6.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Greek ASE (+4.2% mom), the Turkish ISE30 (+4.0% mom) and the Romanian BET (+2.6% mom) (all in EUR terms). There was a relatively muted performance in Hungary (+0.6% mom in EUR terms) and a decline in the Cze...
HEADLINES: • Patria Bank: strong bottom-line beat, but lacking quality • Turkey macro: 4Q GDP expands by 4% • 4iG: 4Q23 results review – solid results, with 19% yoy pro-forma EBITDA growth NEUTRAL • AUGA Group: 4Q23 – positive gross profit in all segments, but liquidity risk on the horizon • HELLENiQ Energy: 4Q23 results – dividend proposal NEUTRAL • Sphera Group: 4Q23 above our expectations POSITIVE • AmRest: key takeaways from the 4Q23 call POSITIVE • Richter: takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings ...
HEADLINES: • Budimex: 4Q23 preliminary results in line with the January guidance, strong gross margin of 14.4% NEUTRAL • VIGO Photonics: HyperPIC selected for PLN 453.6m co-financing under the European Funds for a Modern Economy 2021-2027 POSITIVE • Polish banks: PLN 1,563m of sector contributions to resolution fund in 2024E, guarantee fund contributions still suspended • PZU: most of the Management Board dismissed, but CFO stays • OMV Petrom: signs financing agreement through recovery plan for ...
• Bank Handlowy: 2023 results imply a generous dividend yield, but reveal a weak growth profile • Isbank: 4Q23 highlights and guidance • Tofas: strong beat in the 4Q23 results • Romania macro: MPC on hold, with easing cycle in sight • Fondul Proprietatea: shareholders approve the buy-back and sale of the stake in Engie • TeraPlast: takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call • Verbund: proposes a special DPS of EUR 0.75 on top of the regular DPS of EUR 3.4 • Solutions by STC: 4Q23E results preview (du...
HEADLINES: • EMEA airlines: 2023 traffic; what's next, after a stellar year? • CCC: 4Q prelims short of guidance, due to major sell-down at Modivo; margins back to pre COVID-19 in core business NEGATIVE • Turkey macro: inflation report presents a solid, relatively hawkish, framework for disinflation • Czech Republic macro: CNB steps up the easing cycle • Fondul Proprietatea: Ministry of Finance might oppose sale of stake in Engie and the buyback programme NEGATIVE • Verbund: releases warning...
EME Equity Market – January 2024 Market performance – Turkey off to the races in January. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in the first month of the year. There was a V-shape recovery in the Turkish ISE30, with the index adding 12.6% mom in EUR terms. The Greek ASE and Hungarian BUX indices also reported strong performances, adding 5.7% and 5.3% mom, respectively, in EUR terms. The Czech PX Index advanced by 2.2% mom, while the Romanian BET 0.9% mom in EUR...
HEADLINES: • European oil & gas: parting from the Red Sea • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (8-14 January) • Kazatomprom: expects 2024E production to miss guidance targets NEUTRAL • Fondul Proprietatea: end-December 2023 NAV per share up 4% mom NEUTRAL • Grupa Pracuj: new job ads on Pracuj.pl reach 390,000 in 2H23, down 14% vs. 1H23 NEGATIVE • Bank Millennium: 4Q23E preview (due on 30 January) • Santander Bank Polska: 4Q23E preview (due on 31 January) • ING BSK: 4Q23E preview (due on 1 ...
• Mo-BRUK: PLN 19m claim against MBR related to Wałbrzych dumping site (2017 case) remains in force • Fondul Proprietatea: calls EGMS to approve new buyback programme, Engie sale NEUTRAL • OMV Petrom: acquires 50% of the largest wind power portfolio of projects in Romania POSITIVE • Tauron: agrees to sell Tameh Holding for PLN 598m NEUTRAL • MOL: produces first gas from the Rozhkovskoye field in Kazakhstan POSITIVE • Kazatomprom: fuel assembly manufacturing facility certified for new product NE...
EME Equity Market – December 2023 Market performance – Poland outperforms in December. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 1.9% mom in USD in December. The WIG20 Index continues to perform well in the post-elections environment and reported the strongest performance in our core region, adding 5.9% mom in EUR terms. There was also a strong performance from the Romanian BET and Hungarian BUX indices, adding 4.4% and 4.1% mom, respectively, in EUR terms; while there was a relat...
HEADLINES: • Polish banks: can pay out a maximum 75% of their 2023E stand-alone net profits NEUTRAL • Text: 2Q23-24 (calendar 3Q23) results - EBITDA up 20% yoy, in line with preliminary results NEUTRAL • Fondul Proprietatea: end-November NAV per share at RON 0.6342, 2% lower mom NEUTRAL • Orange Polska: signs Social Agreement for 2024-25 with trade unions NEUTRAL • Grupa Pracuj: new online job ads down 22% yoy in November 2023 NEGATIVE • Short News (ALR)
HEADLINES: • Pepco Group: preliminary FY23 results in line with guidance; cautious optimism, going forward NEUTRAL • Duna House: 3Q23 - doubling down on Italy with the Professione Casa acquisition NEUTRAL • AUGA Group: weak 3Q23, 2024E EBITDA guidance in line with our estimate • AmRest: EUR 800 refinancing agreement POSITIVE • PKO BP: can pay c.PLN 1.3/share 2022 net profit dividend POSITIVE • Poland macro: Donald Tusk nominated as Prime Minister • Fondul Proprietatea: receives binding offer ...
HEADLINES: • Poland macro: NBP extends wait-and-see stance • Greece macro: GDP underperforms in 3Q • WOOD's Winter Wonderland EME Conference 2023: postcards from Prague • Georgia Capital: postcard from Prague • Mytilineos: postcard from Prague • Sarantis: postcard from Prague • Richter: postcard from Prague • 11 bit studios: postcard from Prague • Asseco Poland: postcard from Prague • Benefit Systems: postcard from Prague • Orange Polska: postcard from Prague • Shoper: postcard from Pr...
Fondul released its Q3 results. Summary: Fondul reported its Q3 figures, but most importantly the fund’s NAV for October which arrived at 0.6457 RON/share (flat mom) implying a 16% P/NAVPS discount which is relatively low compared to the historical avg. of 26%. This relatively low discount is attributable to the upcoming tender offer where Fondul is expected to buy back ca 30% of the outstanding shares at a price of 0.6319 RON/share. Cash jumped to 35% from 16.6% in September because of the i...
EME Equity Market – November 2023 Market performance – Greeks in the lead, in a month with only green across the region. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 5.6% mom in EUR terms and 8.7% mom in USD in November. The Greek ASE Index was the top performer in our region (+6.9% mom), followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.5% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom). The Czech PX Index saw the most muted performance, advancing 2.8% mom.
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