HEADLINES: • CEZ: government may try to include support for coal plants in draft gas bill NEUTRAL • Wizz Air: extends compensation agreement with PW until YE26 NEUTRAL • mBank: sees PLN 907m of FX mortgage saga costs in 4Q24E NEUTRAL • Mo-BRUK: update on increased fees in Wałbrzych for 2018 NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: agrees to acquire Invia Group for c.EUR 240m POSITIVE • Huuuge Games: December bookings estimate jumps by 18% mom, to USD 13m POSITIVE • Ten Square Games: December bookings estimat...
We put our coverage of the following stocks UNDER REVIEW, with immediate effect: Fondul Proprietatea Globalworth Ignitis Group Philip Morris Piraeus Port Authority We caution against using the forecasts, ratings and price target guidance issued previously on these stocks.
EME Equity Market – September 2021 Market performance – Turkish equities performed the worst, followed by Greek stocks. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 4.5% in EUR terms and 2.4% in USD terms in September. Turkey’s ISE30 Index declined by 9.7% in EUR terms and lost 5.2% in TRY terms, while the Greek ASE Index declined 6.3% in EUR terms. In Poland, the WIG20 Index declined by 4.3% in EUR terms and 2.4% in local currency. The Hungarian BUX Index fell by 1.3% in EUR terms, but advanced 1.7% in lo...
HEADLINES: • Wizz Air: slip into the autumn shade (downgraded to HOLD) • GEK Terna: 1H21 results review - no major surprises • Terna Energy: 1H21 numbers as expected, US fully divested • Philip Morris CR: 1H21 results review - volumes down, but continuing positive performance • PKO BP: pushes forward with settlement offer for its FX mortgagors POSITIVE • Turk Telekom: Turkish Wealth Fund in talks with banks POSITIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: evolving, not stalling • Czech Republic macro: CNB g...
EME Equity Market – May 2021 Market performance – Polish equities continued to outperform in May. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 6.9% in EUR terms and 8.7% in USD terms; while the WIG20 continued with its strong performance from April, advancing 11.4% in EUR terms and 9.6% in PLN terms. The BUX Index, the Hungarian benchmark and the worst performer in April, gained 11.4% in EUR terms and 7.4% in HUF terms in May. Prague’s PX index grew 7.5% in EUR terms and 5.7% in CZK terms; followed by the Ru...
EME Equity Market – April 2021 Market performance – Greek and Polish equities the best performers in April. The MSCI EM Europe lost 0.7% in EUR terms, but advanced 1.7% in USD terms in April. The best-performing index was the WIG20 Index, +6.9% in EUR terms and 5.1% in PLN terms. The Greek ASE Index advanced by 5.2% in EUR terms; followed by the Czech benchmark, the PX Index (+1.8% in EUR terms and +0.9% in CZK). Romania’s BET Index added 1.2% in EUR terms and 1.4% in RON. On the other hand, Tur...
HEADLINES: • Philip Morris CR: stable dividends outweigh the risks (upgraded to HOLD) • Public Power Corporation: 4Q20 EBITDA in line, guiding for c.EUR 900m for 2021E NEUTRAL • Motor Oil Hellas: 4Q20 results • PZU: PFSA sees potential impact of FX mortgages in the insurance sector as well • PGNiG: 1Q21 operational estimates • Rostelecom: key takeaways from the 2021-25 strategy announcement POSITIVE • Romania macro: government looking to adopt formal strategy for the development of capital m...
We have upgraded Philip Morris CR (PMCR) to HOLD (from Sell), with a new price target (PT) of CZK 16,288/share (12% upside). The improved outlook for the core cigarette business, on higher cross-border sales as the market reopens fully, coupled with a lower cannibalisation rate from its risk-reduced products (RRPs, a c.9% share in FY20), are the key themes behind our upgrade. While we still see PMCR’s business model as unsustainable in the mid-to-long term, the near-term dividend outlook still o...
EME Equity Market – March 2021 Market performance – Greek, Romanian and Russian equities performed the best in March. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 4.5% in EUR terms and 1.6% in USD terms. The best-performing index was the Greek ASE (+9.2%), followed by the Romanian BET, which gained 8.7% in EUR terms and 9.7% in RON. The MOEX followed, advancing 7.6% in EUR terms and 5.8% in RUB. The PX Index, the Czech benchmark, gained 3.4% in EUR terms and 3.1% in CZK; while the Hungarian BUX Index gained ...
HEADLINES: • Public Power Corporation: fully valued on a normalised macro (stays HOLD) • Alpha Bank: trading at an extreme discount (stays BUY) • Bank Pekao: targeting 2024E ROE of 10%, dividend payout ratio guided at 50-75% • Alior Bank: 2022E strategic targets, minimum upside for our forecasts • Wirtualna Polska: strong 4Q20 results, adjusted EBITDA up 16% yoy, 8% above our estimate POSITIVE • Famur: 4Q20 EBITDA 18% below the consensus NEGATIVE • Philip Morris CR: 2H20 results - better tha...
HEADLINES: • Yandex: the true value of the ecosystem (stays BUY) • Romgaz: more spend, less dividend (upgraded to HOLD) • PZU: facing significant relaxation in dividend recommendation from the regulator POSITIVE • Polish banks: extension of unconditional dividend ban until end-1H21 NEGATIVE • CEE banks: ECB issues restrictive guidance on dividend capacity for the banks • Arcelik: more details on the Hitachi deal, but market reaction remains muted • Kety: strategy 2021-25 - very ambitious fin...
HEADLINES: • Zagreb Stock Exchange: a pricey bet on the Balkan markets consolidation (SELL - initiation of coverage) • Czech Republic macro: reintroduces lockdown - implications • Kety: 3Q20 results - all-time record figures create chance for 2020E forecasts hike POSITIVE • PGNiG: gains a new supplier of gas, but loses a CEO • Aeroflot: Russian carriers ask government for RUB 50bn in additional aid POSITIVE • Turkcell: AGM approves L1-TWF deal NEUTRAL • Mytilineos: completion of 300MW solar p...
The Czech government has decided to reintroduce a full lockdown, as the fast-rising number of COVID-19 cases threatens to overwhelm the healthcare system. The re-introduction of the lockdown in the country has been seen as increasingly likely lately. Having contained the initial outbreak exceptionally well, the number of cases in the Czech Republic has been rising rapidly since the middle of the summer. We note that the number of new cases is rising steeply across the region, and we believe that...
EME Equity Market – September 2020 Market performance – most indices in the red in EUR terms, while ISE30 Index advanced 2.9%. In September, the MSCI EM Europe Index lost 5.8% in EUR terms and 7.5% in local currency terms. The ISE30 Index was the best performer, adding 2.9% in EUR terms and 6.0% in local currency terms. The Romanian BET Index lost 0.6% in USD terms, but remained largely flat (+0.1%) in RON term; while the Greek ASE Index lost 1.5% in EUR terms. The Russian MOEX Index declined 4....
HEADLINES: • CCC: 2Q20 below preliminary numbers, recovery in 3Q driving 4% yoy sales expansion POSITIVE • Philip Morris CR: 1H20 results - business model transition continuing • Russian oil & gas: State companies may be required to use adjusted earnings for 50% dividend distributions • GTC: management sees fair value around PLN 9-11/share, initial price for Lone Star stake revealed • PGE: CEO comments on upcoming strategy update • Arcelik: sells non-core asset in China for USD 17m NEUTRAL •...
This morning (30 September), Philip Morri s CR (PMCR) announced its 1H20 results. The revenues were driven by growing sales of HEETS, while the inferior margins related to the distribution of HEETS has taken a toll on profitability, as the gross and EBITDA margins were down by 300-650bps yoy. EBITDA of CZK 2.5bn was down by 15% yoy and below our expectations, on a 350bps expansion in the opex/sales ratio (most likely related to the higher distribution and marketing costs of HEETS). The EPS of CZ...
HEADLINES: • CEE banks: there are no winners, just survivors (coverage universe update) • CEE consumers: #stayathome (coverage universe update) • Warsaw Stock Exchange: 4Q19 EBIT misses consensus by 8% on higher-than-expected opex NEGATIVE • Norilsk Nickel: declares final dividend in line with expectations, and nominates new Board NEUTRAL • MOL: update on business conditions, dividend suspended • OMV: 1Q20 trading update • OMV Petrom: 1Q20 trading update • LPP: CEO expects s...
The development of the COVID-19 pandemic has changed the landscape for consumer names materially. While #stayathome is slowing down the contagion, it has infected the foundations of discretionary retailers severely. At the same time, the staples players have seen a sales boost, especially in the e-commerce space. Facing such a storm among the especially vulnerable players hurt by store lockdowns and carrying high leverage, we identify: AmRest, CCC, Kofola and Fourlis. On the other hand, FMCG dis...
EME Equity Market – March 2020 Market performance – all stock indices in the region were down in March, with the BET the best performer in EUR terms (-16.7%). The MSCI Emerging Markets Europe Index lost 25.8% in EUR terms, while the Czech PX Index was down 24.8%. Other regional stock markets were not far behind, with the BUX Index losing 22.8% in EUR terms, followed by the ASE Index (-22.5% mom), the Russian MOEX (-22.4% mom), the Polish WIG20 (-18.5% mom) and the Turkish ISE30 (-19.8% mom)....
HEADLINES: • EME Strategy: seeking alpha in pyjamas • EME Macro/Strategy: we have a framework • Komercni Banka: cancels 2019 dividend NEGATIVE • Rosneft: starts buyback POSITIVE • Transgaz: dividend proposal largely in line NEUTRAL • Ten Square Games: 4Q19 beat, mainly on lower marketing POSITIVE • Echo Investment: 4Q19 - beats vs. both our and consensus estimates, but 2020E may prove challenging • Philip Morris CR: 2H19 results - weaker than expected, dividend not yet announ...
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