A director at Inari Amertron Bhd sold 2,050,000 shares at 0.000MYR and the significance rating of the trade was 69/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years cl...
Alpha Picks: Expanding The Variety Of Events Bets Our Alpha Picks regained momentum and resoundingly outperformed the FBMKLCI in Mar 24 (+9.9% vs -1.0%), led by our concentrated bets on property and construction picks. However, these sectors’ outperformances should moderate, and we strategise our Alpha Picks to capitalise on a wider variety of anticipated events/themes. Apr 24 picks: GENM, Inari, Mah Sing, MrDIY, MYEG, RGB, Suncon and VSI. New additions are MYEG and VSI, replacing EcoWorld and M...
Alpha Picks: Focusing On Earnings Momentum Our Alpha Picks underperformed the KLCI in Feb 24 (-0.9% vs 2.5%), partially reversing three consecutive months of strong outperformances, as the handful of quarterly results winners could not offset Ekovest’s fall. For Mar 24, we continue to focus largely on companies with good earnings momentum, driven by factors such as improving inbound tourist arrivals, and an expected surge in domestic consumption. Mar 24 picks: EcoWorld, GENM, Inari, MAHB, Mah Si...
4Q23 Results Wrap-up While the 4Q23 results season continued to feature a wide breadth of disappointments, we marginally raise our 2024 earnings forecast for the FBMKLCI. We retain our bullish market view, underpinned by expectations of an easing US interest rate cycle and the accompanying prospectively stronger ringgit, the country’s progressive business policies, and significant corporate earnings recovery. We raise our year-end target for the FBMKLCI to 1,680 to mainly reflect the inclusion o...
1HFY24: Marginally Below Expectations; Gearing Up For Next Growth Engine Inari’s results missed expectations, dragged by a combination of one-off events which affected its margins. Cut FY24-25 earnings by 6-8%. Nonetheless, the group is back to growth trajectory again in 2024, driven by its RF segment (on new flagship programme) after a gestation year in 2023. At 26.2x ex-cash 2024 PE (-0.5SD below its five-year mean) with negative de-ratings being priced in, we see a balanced risk-reward ratio ...
GREATER CHINA Sector IT Hardware: Updates on MWC 2024 and read-through on FII from NVIDIA’s results. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Results Li Auto (2015 HK/SELL/HK$139.90/Target: HK$100.00): 4Q23: Earnings beat estimates on changes of accounting assumptions. Maintain SELL. Target price: HK$100.00. INDONESIA Results Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ/SELL/Rp25,800/Target: Rp21,000): 4Q23: NPAT edges down 4.4% qoq following lower ASP, below expectations. MALAYSIA Results AMMB Holdings (AMM MK/HOLD/RM4.31/...
Our Alpha Picks’ performance again trounced the KLCI in Jan 24 (+9.6% vs +4.0%), led by Iskandar 2.0 beneficiaries Sunway Bhd and Ekovest, followed by RGB International. Feb 24 picks: Bursa Malaysia (Bursa), Eco World Development Group (EcoWorld), Ekovest, IOI Corp, Genting Malaysia (GENM), Inari Amertron (Inari), Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB) and RGB International (RGB). EcoWorld replaces Sunway Bhd which has delivered blistering returns. Meanwhile, some expected winners in the upcoming res...
Breaking Away From The January Jinx Malaysian equities are off to a good start for the year, breaking from recent years’ January jinx to offer moderate prospective gains in 1H24. Catalysing the market’s upward trajectory are domestic investment events such as Iskandar 2.0 and NETR. 2024 should favour deep value laggards, including high yielders and small-mid caps. Top picks: CIMB Group, Gamuda, Inari Amertron, IOI Corporation, Malaysia Airports Holdings, My EG Services, NationGate Holdings and S...
Alpha Picks: Domestic Event Winners Our Alpha Picks outperformed the FBMKLCI again in Dec 23 (+2.2% vs. +0.1%) as multiple names provided solid returns. Despite the shaky start of the year for global equities, Malaysian equities should benefit from many domestic-oriented events. Jan 24 picks: Bursa Malaysia (Bursa), Ekovest, IOI Corp, Genting Malaysia (GENM), Inari Amerton (Inari), Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB), RGB International (RGB) and Sunway Bhd. We reintroduce MAHB in lieu of KPJ Healt...
On The Brink Of A New Dawn; In A Constellation Headed For A Spurt The sector is in a constellation headed for a spurt again after multiple rounds of Davis’ Double Killing effects especially after a disappointing 3Q report card which sent valuation rifts back to mean reversion. Most importantly, signs of recovery are more apparent backed by an imminent growth recovery towards 2024 on improved visibility guided by local bellwethers. We like companies that have strong orderbook backlogs and are fro...
Gaining Tempo We advocate a risk-on strategy in 1H24 as Malaysian equities offer moderate prospective gains in 1H24, as expectations of a globally falling interest cycle override the possibility of the US economy slipping into recession. Capitalise on key market rerating events such as expectations of easing US Fed funds, cyclical recovery of global semiconductor demand (4Q23), and China’s economic recovery. Our end-24 FBMKLCI target of 1,605 implies 14.9x 2024 earnings, or -1.0SD to the histori...
Executive Summary Malaysian equities gaining tempo in 1H24. Malaysian equities offer moderate prospective gains in 1H24, as expectations of a globally falling interest cycle override the possibility of the US economy slipping into recession. Specifically, the equity market will anticipate a dovish US interest rate policy that is accompanied by a steady (and moderate) recovery of the ringgit vs the US dollar and improving foreign equity inflows. Meanwhile, positive domestic factors to note are ea...
3Q23 Results Wrap-up 3Q23 results continued to disappoint, prompting another round of forecast cuts. Nevertheless, the global investment sentiment has clearly improved, and we retain our view for the market to end the year higher, although we trim our end-23 FBMKLCI target to 1,507. The FBMKLCI will be looking forward to further easing of US interest rates, a stronger prospective ringgit, and a significant corporate earnings recovery. Top picks: CIMB Group, Hume, Inari Amertron, IOI Corp, MAHB, ...
Alpha Picks: Still Focusing On Domestic Winners Our Alpha Picks trounced the FBMKLCI in Nov 23 (+5.9% vs. +0.7%) mostly thanks to Hume Cement’s (Hume) run-up. Nov 23’s performance validated our focus on winners of selective domestic demand, a strategy which remains valid. Dec 23 picks: Bursa Malaysia (Bursa), Ekovest, IOI Corp, Genting Malaysia (GENM), Inari Amerton (Inari), KPJ Healthcare (KPJ), RGB International (RGB) and Sunway Bhd. We add RGB and drop Hume (which has more than doubled ytd).
1QFY24: Marginally Below Expectations; Gearing Up For Next Growth Engine Results missed expectations, dragged by the following one-offs: a) electricity disruption (RM5m loss), b) startup cost (RM1m), and c) yield loss of new products. Cut FY24 earnings by 6%. 2QFY24 could see a stronger comeback on higher ramp-up, which could partially make up for the shortfall. Inari is poised for a strong recovery in FY24 after a gestation year premised on its new flagship programme, inventory replenishment an...
GREATER CHINA Results Kingsoft Corp (3888 HK/BUY/HK$30.50/Target: HK$36.00): 3Q23: Earnings miss; positive on game pipeline and WPS AI. Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK/BUY/HK$15.14/Target: HK$21.00): 3Q23: Earnings beat; 2024 outlook remains intact despite normalising industry growth. Update Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group Company (3692 HK/BUY/HK$14.54/Target:HK$17.50): 3Q23: Expects innovative drugs to support significant revenue growth recovery in 2024. INDONESIA Results Merdeka Copper Gold (MD...
Alpha Picks: Focusing On Domestic Winners Our alpha picks underperformed the FBMKLCI in October (-2.2% vs. +1.2%). While the FBMKLCI is sidelined by external headwinds, selected domestic themes should outperform, eg Iskandar 2.0 and 3Q23 results winners. November picks: Bursa Malaysia, Ekovest, IOI Corporation, Genting Malaysia (GENM), Hume Cement Industries, Inari Amertron, KPJ Healthcare and Sunway Bhd. We add Ekovest, Inari Amertron, KPJ Healthcare, and Sunway Bhd and drop Hap Seng Plantation...
A Longer Wait For Year-End Recovery While we still expect the FBMKLCI to end the year higher, the current consolidation will persist until inflation expectations ease. Global equities have been prominently spooked by the UST10 yield’s run-up towards 5%, followed by the Gaza war and the US’ widened export ban on Nvdia’s AI chips to China. While it is best to stay tactically defensive until the UST10-US fed funds rate gap narrows or when there is clear evidence pointing to easing US inflation, the...
Malaysia Budget 2024: Fiscally Reforms Unfolding Budget 2024 embraced fiscal consolidation by raising the SST rate, introducing a slew of new taxes and a targeted fuel subsidy reduction. The effectively slight expansionary budget is market-neutral. Meanwhile, the loosening of the MM2H criteria, along with upcoming events in October (including Malaysia-Singapore joint leader’s retreat), would support the Iskandar 2.0 theme. Despite various external headwinds, we maintain our view for FBMKLCI to c...
Glass Half Empty Or Half Full? Does Not Matter As Long As It Is Refillable! Risk-reward calculus is tilting towards the favourable side after a Davis’ Double Killing both on the industry’s earnings and valuations. Coupled with an imminent cyclical recovery, peakish interest rate cycle and gushing waterfall effect from trade diversion and supply chain entrenchment, we believe the conditions for turning more bullish on the sector are ripe again. We like companies that have strong orderbook backlog...
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