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Martin Marandon-Carlhian ... (+3)
  • Martin Marandon-Carlhian
  • Stephane Houri
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 11/13/2024

We maintain our Outperform rating on CaixaBank, one of our Top Picks in the sector, with a higher target of € 7.2 vs € 6.7 and ahead of the CMD on 19 November. We are lifting our net income estimates by 7% for 2025-2026, to 7% above the consensus. The strategic update is set to highlight the wisdom of the business model diversification (long-term savings) to address the current transition phase on rates. Despite a solid market performance, the profile does not look to be fully reflec...

Martin Marandon-Carlhian ... (+3)
  • Martin Marandon-Carlhian
  • Stephane Houri
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 13/11/2024

Nous réitérons notre opinion Surperformance sur CaixaBank, l’un de nos top picks du secteur, avec un OC porté à 7.2 € vs 6.7 € et en amont du CMD du 19/11. Nous relevons nos anticipations de RN de 7% sur 2025/2026 qui ressortent 7% supérieures au consensus. L’update stratégique devrait mettre en avant la pertinence de la diversification du business model (épargne LT) face à la transition actuelle sur les taux. Malgré un solide parcours boursier, cela n’est pas pleinement reflété dans ...

Florent Laroche-Joubert ... (+3)
  • Florent Laroche-Joubert
  • Roy Külter
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO : Spain: the PSOE and SUMAR looking to abolish the SOCIMI regime

>PSOE and Sumar spring a surprise in seeking to suddenly abolish the SOCIMI regime - On Monday 11 November, the PSOE reached a tax agreement with its Spanish government ally, “Sumar”, whereby the two parties want to abolish the SOCIMI REIT regime or at least part of its tax advantages. This sudden stance, which surprised Spanish property professionals, is thus different from the position that was presented just last week, namely to “encourage the construction of affor...

Florent Laroche-Joubert ... (+3)
  • Florent Laroche-Joubert
  • Roy Külter
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO : Espagne : le PSOE et SUMAR souhaiteraient abolir le régime SOCI...

>PSOE et Sumar créent la surprise en voulant supprimer soudainement le régime SOCIMI - Ce lundi 11 novembre, le PSOE sont parvenus à un accord fiscal avec son allié au gouvernement espagnol, « Sumar », par lequel les deux partis veulent supprimer le régime SOCIMI ou au moins une partie de ses avantages fiscaux. Cette prise de position soudaine qui a crée la surprise auprès des professionnels de l’immobilier espagnol, diffère ainsi de la position qui était encore mise ...

Ignacio Romero
  • Ignacio Romero

METROVACESA: 9M’24 RESULTS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

3Q'24 vs. 3Q'23 Results Sales: € 43.9 M (-68.0% vs. -22.6% BS(e)); EBITDA: € -20.0 M (€ 19.3 M in 9M'23); 9M'24 vs. 9M'23 Results Sales: € 278.9 M (-7.7% vs. +12.9% BS(e)); EBITDA: € 11.3 M (-61.0%);

Ignacio Romero
  • Ignacio Romero
Jean-François Granjon ... (+2)
  • Jean-François Granjon
  • Thomas Zlowodzki

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 10/30/2024

The outcome of the US presidential election hangs in the balance, but the momentum seems to be with Donald Trump since the beginning of October: the candidate is now in the lead in six of the seven swing states, has just overtaken Kamala Harris in the national vote while 63% of punters are tipping him to win. We recap in the present note on the European stocks to play or avoid in the event of Donald Trump's victory and have also listed European stocks with a production base in the US,...

Jean-François Granjon ... (+2)
  • Jean-François Granjon
  • Thomas Zlowodzki

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 30/10/2024

Le scrutin présidentiel US reste incertain, mais le momentum semble être du côté de Donald Trump depuis début octobre : le candidat est désormais en tête dans 6 des 7 swing states, vient de dépasser Kamala Harris dans le vote national et est donné gagnant à 63% chez les parieurs. Nous rappelons les valeurs européennes à privilégier ou à éviter en cas de victoire de Donald Trump, et avons également listé les valeurs européennes ayant une base de production aux US, par nature moins expo...

Florent Laroche-Joubert ... (+4)
  • Florent Laroche-Joubert
  • Manuel Martin
  • CEFA
  • CREA

Metrovacesa : 9M 2024: exceptional dividend of € 0.33 / sh to be distr...

>Net presales at +14.9% in value at € 511m on 9M 2024 with gross margin at 23.6% vs 24.2% in H1 2024 - This morning, Metrovacesa reports a solid 9M trading update supported by a healthy Spanish housing market:Pre-sales levels are still up at +14.9% in value. The number of units sold reached 1,518 (+8.3% y-o-y) at a higher average price of € 336k (+6% y-o-y). As a result, pre-sales coverage ratios remain healthy at 97% for deliveries in 2024, 81% of deliveries of ...

Florent Laroche-Joubert ... (+4)
  • Florent Laroche-Joubert
  • Manuel Martin
  • CEFA
  • CREA

Metrovacesa : 9M 2024: exceptional dividend of € 0.33 / sh to be distr...

>Net presales at +14.9% in value at € 511m on 9M 2024 with gross margin at 23.6% vs 24.2% in H1 2024 - This morning, Metrovacesa reports a solid 9M trading update supported by a healthy Spanish housing market:Pre-sales levels are still up at +14.9% in value. The number of units sold reached 1,518 (+8.3% y-o-y) at a higher average price of € 336k (+6% y-o-y). As a result, pre-sales coverage ratios remain healthy at 97% for deliveries in 2024, 81% of deliveries of ...

Ignacio Romero
  • Ignacio Romero

METROVACESA: RDOS. 9MESES’24 (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

Rdos. 3T'24 vs 3T'23: Ventas: 43,9 M euros (-68,0% vs -22,6% BS(e)); EBITDA: -20,0 M euros (19,3 M euros en 9meses'23). Rdos. 9meses'24 vs 9meses'23: Ventas: 278,9 M euros (-7,7% vs +12,9% BS(e)); EBITDA: 11,3 M euros (-61,0%).

Research Department
  • Research Department

IBERIAN DAILY 30 OCTOBER + 3Q’24 RESULTS. PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SAB...

NEWS SUMMARY: AENA, ENCE, ENDESA, FERROVIAL, GREENING, INDRA, METROVACESA, PUIG BRANDS, REDEIA, UNICAJA. At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 3Q’24 results to be released over the coming days in Spain. Market moved by earnings releases European stock markets closed with slight drops, highly conditioned by the business results calendar and penalised by the new rise in...

Research Department
  • Research Department

INFORME DIARIO 30 0CTUBRE + RDOS. ESPAÑA Y EUROPA 3T’24. PREVIEWS (ANÁ...

COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: AENA, ENCE, ENDESA, FERROVIAL, GREENING, INDRA, METROVACESA, PUIG BRANDS, REDEIA, UNICAJA. EUROPA: BASF, KERING, SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC, VOLKSWAGEN. Incluido en el informe diario de hoy, y durante toda la campaña de resultados, incorporamos al final una presentación con los resultados destacados en positivo y negativo y previews de Rdos. 3T’24 que se publicarán en España y Europa en los próximos días. El mercado al son de los beneficios empresariales ...

Christophe Chaput ... (+3)
  • Christophe Chaput
  • Florent Laroche-Joubert
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO : The recovery is only beginning and the best is yet to come

The rate cut carried out and yet to come (ECB: -125bp to -150bp to come by end-2025e) is a real driver for listed real estate and creates the conditions enabling it to outperform. In this context, we are lifting 23 target prices for the 42 stocks covered. Covivio, CTP, Merlin Properties, URW, Vonovia and Xior Student Housing are now our Top Picks. Aedifica (Outperform vs Neutral) should also benefit. Lastly, we are lowering Care Property to Neutral and SFL to Underperform. - >...

Christophe Chaput ... (+3)
  • Christophe Chaput
  • Florent Laroche-Joubert
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO : La reprise ne fait que commencer et le meilleur est à venir

La baisse de taux actée et à venir (BCE : -125 à 150 pb à venir d’ici fin 2025e) agit comme un véritable catalyseur pour l’immobilier côté et crée les conditions lui permettant de surperformer. Dans ce cadre, nous relevons 23 objectifs de cours sur 42 valeurs suivies. Covivio, CTP, Merlin Properties, URW, Vonovia et Xior Student Housing constituent désormais nos top picks. Aedifica (Surperformance vs Neutre) devrait également en bénéficier. Enfin, nous abaissons Care Property à N...

Ignacio Romero
  • Ignacio Romero

METROVACESA: 1H’24 RESULTS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

2Q'24 vs. 2Q'23 Results Sales: € 95.0 M (+11.0% vs. +44.2% BS(e)); EBITDA: € 13.4 M (+152.8% vs. +96.1% BS(e)); 1H'24 vs. 1H'23 Results Sales: € 235.0 M (+42.3% vs. +59.5% BS(e)); EBITDA: € 31.3 M (+222.7% vs. +191.7% BS(e)); Net Profit: € 3.8 M (€ -35.0 M in 1H'23);

Fehmi Ben Naamane
  • Fehmi Ben Naamane

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 24/07/2024

The Platform Group (TPG) is a software company that is active across 20 industries through its digital platform solutions. Via its four segments (consumer goods, freight goods, industrial goods, service and retail goods), it serves both B2B and B2C customers. Given the growing revenues (2023-2026e CAGR +14.7%) and adjusted EBITDA margins (+270bp to 7.8% in 2026e vs 2023), as well as a solid financial profile (equity ratio >30%, average positive FCF of c.€ 8m for 2024e to 2026e) and un...

Fehmi Ben Naamane
  • Fehmi Ben Naamane

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 07/24/2024

The Platform Group (TPG) is a software company that is active across 20 industries through its digital platform solutions. Via its four segments (consumer goods, freight goods, industrial goods, service and retail goods), it serves both B2B and B2C customers. Given the growing revenues (2023-2026e CAGR +14.7%) and adjusted EBITDA margins (+270bp to 7.8% in 2026e vs 2023), as well as a solid financial profile (equity ratio >30%, average positive FCF of c.€ 8m for 2024e to 2026e) and un...

Florent Laroche-Joubert ... (+4)
  • Florent Laroche-Joubert
  • Manuel Martin
  • CEFA
  • CREA

Metrovacesa : Healthy operating KPI for H1

>Improvement in level of deliveries and pre-sales in H1 2024 - Metrovacesa reported healthy advanced KPI on its pre-sales and delivery activity amid sustained fundamentals in the Spanish housing market, with GDP growth in Q1 24 (+2.5%) leading to further upgrades in forecasts for the year (+70bp in 6 months). Looking at today’s figures, we highlight the following:Deliveries stood at 675 units (+18% y-o-y), with 364 units delivered in Q1 2024, to generate € 235m ...

Florent Laroche-Joubert ... (+4)
  • Florent Laroche-Joubert
  • Manuel Martin
  • CEFA
  • CREA

Metrovacesa : Healthy operating KPI for H1

>Improvement in level of deliveries and pre-sales in H1 2024 - Metrovacesa reported healthy advanced KPI on its pre-sales and delivery activity amid sustained fundamentals in the Spanish housing market, with GDP growth in Q1 24 (+2.5%) leading to further upgrades in forecasts for the year (+70bp in 6 months). Looking at today’s figures, we highlight the following:Deliveries stood at 675 units (+18% y-o-y), with 364 units delivered in Q1 2024, to generate € 235m ...

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