reports
- Felix Fischer
European High Yield Investment Outlook 2025 - Lucror Analytics
In this publication, we review the past year and discuss our outlook for the next 12 months. We begin our discussion with the macro factors at play, including GDP forecasts, the geopolitical landscape and our expectations for cost inflation. We also trace the development of primary markets in the European HY space, and give our view on defaults in general as well as for our coverage universe. We then discuss sector trends and expectations, along with earnings development for companies under our ...
PFD PREMIER FOODS PLC
AMS AMS AG
RR. ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS PLC
CO CASINO GUICHARD-PERRACHON SA
VK VALLOUREC SA
TLW TULLOW OIL PLC
EO FAURECIA SA
105I SAPPI LIMITED
TEVA.N TEVA PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES LIMITED SPONSORED ADR
LBTYA LIBERTY GLOBAL PLC CLASS A
CSTM CONSTELLIUM SE CLASS A
CCK CROWN HOLDINGS INC.
RXL REXEL SA
DBG DERICHEBOURG SA
725180 STADA ARZNEIMITTEL AG
NOKIA NOKIA OYJ
TNET TELENET GROUP HOLDING NV
TUI1 TUI AG
NEX NEXANS SA
VED VEDANTA RESOURCES PLC
VCP VICTORIA PLC
AF AIR FRANCE-KLM SA
BBD.B BOMBARDIER INC. CLASS B
SYNT SYNTHOMER PLC
INTRUM INTRUM AB
888 888 HOLDINGS PLC
IPF INTERNATIONAL PERSONAL FINANCE PLC
ENQ ENQUEST PLC
EDR EDREAMS ODIGEO SA
TC1 TELE COLUMBUS AG
9984 SOFTBANK GROUP CORP.
103M SASOL LIMITED
TIT TELECOM ITALIA S.P.A.
REC RECORDATI INDUSTRIA CHIMICA E FARMACEUTICA S.P.A.
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
TALK TALKTALK TELECOM GROUP PLC
TATAMOTORS TATA MOTORS LIMITED
PL8 PLAYTECH PLC
ARW ARROW GLOBAL GROUP PLC
NEMAKA NEMAK S.A.B. DE C.V.
SPIE SPIE SA
CEXA CEMEX SAB DE CV (ADR)
ARD ARDAGH GROUP S.A. CLASS A
PFL PFLEIDERER GROUP SA
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
CDR CODERE S.A.
GAME GAMENET GROUP SPA
AML ASTON MARTIN LAGONDA GLOBAL HOLDINGS PLC
TIFS TI FLUID SYSTEMS
NEXI NEXI S.P.A.
AXA AXACTOR SE
BORR SECURITAS DIRECT AB CL B
BORR DRILLING LTD
- Felix Fischer
- Haidje Rustau
- Ian Wong
- Tanvi Arora
- Trung Nguyen
- Felix Fischer
PFD PREMIER FOODS PLC
AMS AMS AG
RR. ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS PLC
CO CASINO GUICHARD-PERRACHON SA
VK VALLOUREC SA
TLW TULLOW OIL PLC
EO FAURECIA SA
105I SAPPI LIMITED
TEVA.N TEVA PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES LIMITED SPONSORED ADR
LBTYA LIBERTY GLOBAL PLC CLASS A
CSTM CONSTELLIUM SE CLASS A
CCK CROWN HOLDINGS INC.
RXL REXEL SA
DBG DERICHEBOURG SA
725180 STADA ARZNEIMITTEL AG
NOKIA NOKIA OYJ
TNET TELENET GROUP HOLDING NV
TUI1 TUI AG
NEX NEXANS SA
VED VEDANTA RESOURCES PLC
VCP VICTORIA PLC
AF AIR FRANCE-KLM SA
BBD.B BOMBARDIER INC. CLASS B
SYNT SYNTHOMER PLC
INTRUM INTRUM AB
888 888 HOLDINGS PLC
IPF INTERNATIONAL PERSONAL FINANCE PLC
ENQ ENQUEST PLC
EDR EDREAMS ODIGEO SA
TC1 TELE COLUMBUS AG
9984 SOFTBANK GROUP CORP.
103M SASOL LIMITED
TIT TELECOM ITALIA S.P.A.
REC RECORDATI INDUSTRIA CHIMICA E FARMACEUTICA S.P.A.
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
TALK TALKTALK TELECOM GROUP PLC
TATAMOTORS TATA MOTORS LIMITED
PL8 PLAYTECH PLC
ARW ARROW GLOBAL GROUP PLC
NEMAKA NEMAK S.A.B. DE C.V.
SPIE SPIE SA
CEXA CEMEX SAB DE CV (ADR)
ARD ARDAGH GROUP S.A. CLASS A
PFL PFLEIDERER GROUP SA
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
CDR CODERE S.A.
GAME GAMENET GROUP SPA
AML ASTON MARTIN LAGONDA GLOBAL HOLDINGS PLC
TIFS TI FLUID SYSTEMS
NEXI NEXI S.P.A.
AXA AXACTOR SE
BORR SECURITAS DIRECT AB CL B
BORR DRILLING LTD
- Felix Fischer
- Haidje Rustau
- Ian Wong
- Peter Low
- Si Yong Ng
- Tanvi Arora
Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe
In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: CeramTec, Guala Closures, Kiloutou, TeamSystem, TI Fluid Systems, Fedrigoni, Odido, House of HR, TalkTalk, Klockner Pentaplast, Profine, PureGym, Picard, Adler Pelzer, Bertrand Franchise, Standard Profil, Recordati, Kantar, Pasubio, Loewen Play, Pfleiderer, Hurtigruten, Motel One, Mahle
- Gabor Bukta
Guidance maintained after a strong Q3 despite Polish Link weighing on ...
Key message: Waberer’s reported Q3 consolidated EBIT of EUR 10.1mn, which translates into a 26% increase compared to the same period last year. The company maintained fullyear EBIT guidance of EUR 40mn+ while clarified its revenue guidance at EUR 770-780 mn. ITS became unprofitable again on EBIT level (EUR -1.9mn) due to the unfavourable tax policy changes affecting the segment’s polish subsidiary (LINK). As a result, the company decided to implement a strategic change in LINK’s operations, ...
PKP Cargo S.A.: 2 directors
Two Directors at PKP Cargo S.A. bought 10,000 shares at between 18.557PLN and 18.620PLN. The significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the...
- Gabor Bukta
EBIT guidance maintained as ITS EBIT turns into black
Key message: Waberer’s achieved its highest consolidated EBIT result in the last 4 quarters after all 3 business units recorded positive EBIT for Q2. ITS returned to profitable EBIT level as a result of (1) the successful spring tender season, (2) the first positive impacts of market consolidation on price levels and (3) the positive operational performance of the recently acquired rail logistics subsidiary. For 2024, the management maintained its EBIT guidance of EUR 40mn+, while the Group...
- Gabor Bukta
Record quarterly revenues, but weak EBIT in Q1
Key message: Waberer’s reached revenues of EUR 196.7mn in Q1/24, a quarterly recordat consolidated level. The Group achieved an EBIT of EUR 8.5mn, supported by furtherimprovement in the Contract Logistics and Insurance segments. Despite the drop in thequaterly EBIT, we expect that earnings will improve in the coming quarters. Themanagement reaffirmed its FY2024 EBIT guidance of over EUR 40mn as they continue tosee growing operating results after a temporary slowdown. RCL and the insurancesegment...
- Gabor Bukta
One-offs distorted FY results, outlook shows resilience
Waberer’s reported its Q4/23 results on Thursday AMC, where the Company achieved aquarterly EBIT of EUR 9.3mn, corresponding to a decrease of 23% YoY. Net incomecame in at EUR 3.7mn, down 66% YoY driven by (1) the lower industrial output inEurope; (2) a massive increase in tax liabilities booked in Q4 and (3) the high baseperiod after the restatement of last year’s results. For the full year, Waberer’s reported a net income of EUR 29.7mn, an increase of EUR10.4mn or +54% YoY and EBIT of EUR 42....
- Gabor Bukta
Not a quality report, but we see the positives
Waberer’s reported its Q3/23 results today, where the Company achieved a quarterly EBIT of EUR 8.0mn. Net income came in at EUR 0.5mn, down 87% YoY on unfavourable FX movements. RCL and the insurance segments continued to perform well, but the ITS segment experienced a slowdown on the spot market. All in all, this is not a quality report, but we focus on the positives and mid-term targets. The Company will publish its Group-wide strategy later this year and introduce an employee shareholder pr...
- Gabor Bukta
Driving on a sustainable growth path
We remain Buy-rated on Waberer’s and we massively increase our 2023 e-o-y TP to 4,800 HUF/sh from 3,990 HUF/sh, implying an 87% upside potential. Structural improvements, sustainable profitability and conscious growth together underpin our view that Waberer’s is dirt cheap and one of the most undervalued growth stocks in the CEE region. Waberer’s trades at a FY24 P/E of 3.6x and EV/EBITDA of 3.2x, on our estimates. Waberer’s achieved a record semi-annual profit in the first half of 2023 as all...
- Gabor Bukta
Waberer’s raised EBIT guidance after record Q2 earnings
Waberer’s reported its Q2/23 results yesterday, where the Company achieved recordquarterly EBIT of EUR 14.3mn. Net income came in at EUR 15.1 mn (6x of Q2/22). All threebusiness segments continued to increase their profitability on both a quarterly and halfyearly basis. At EBIT level, results were positively distorted by the impact of the out-ofcourt settlement, which was announced earlier this year, while net level was also favourablyaffected by a non-realized FX gain of EUR 4.7mn. As a resul...
- Gabor Bukta
Record quarterly earnings, raised profit guidance
Record quarterly earnings, raised profit guidance Waberer's Group achieved its highest quarterly EBIT and highest net income of the recentperiod in the first quarter of 2023. EBIT totaled EUR 11.2 mn (+146% YoY), while netincome came in at EUR 10.4 mn (+508% YoY), significantly ahead of the same period oflast year, which was also affected by a non-realized FX gain of EUR 2.2mn. In light of thisyear’s solid start, the management raised its profit guidance for 2023. EBITDA contribution by segmen...
- Gabor Bukta
Waberer’s - Dividend Proposal On Table, Mgmt. Sees higher EBIT in ‘22
Share price close as of 07/11/2022 HUF 2,280 Bloomberg WABERERS HB Number of diluted shares [million] 17.7 Reuters WABE.HU Market capitalization [HUF bn/EUR mn] 40.3/100.9 Free float 28% Daily turnover 12M [HUF million] 18 52 week range HUF 1,750 – 2,470 Dividend proposal on table, mgmt. sees higher EBIT in ‘22 Waberer's posted a strong set of results for Q3/22 on Monday, AM...
- Gabor Bukta
Waberer’s - Record Quarterly EBIT On Structural Improvements
Waberer's posted a record quarterly EBIT of EUR 10.6mn (+33% YoY) at Group level for Q2/22, fuelled by improving ITS and Other segments. However, net income totalled EUR 2.5mn in Q2/22 vs. 6.1mn a year earlier, dragged down by non-cash FX revaluation of balance sheet items and also a non-cash deferred tax (both totalled EUR 4.1mn). Importantly, the management stated that “neither the war in Ukraine, nor the increasing inflation generated significant industrial production or retail trade decrea...
- Gabor Bukta
Waberer’s - Strategy Started To Be Executed
We remain Buy-rated on Waberer’s, however, we lift our TP to 3,990 HUF/sh from 3,400 HUF/sh, leaving an 84% upside potential to the previous closing. The Management has started to execute strategy, thus we see signs of gradual operational improvement. Given that the management guided ambitious mid-term goals, we upgraded our forecasts, but we modelled lower earnings than the guidance due to deteriorating macro outlook. Long-term story: Waberer’s is well on track to gain efficiency and to reac...
- Gabor Bukta
Waberer's - Tiny EBIT gain cements our bullish view
Waberer's posted a net income of EUR 1.7mn at Group level for Q1/22 vs. EUR 2.7mn a year ago due to a non-realized FX loss. However, EBIT came in at EUR 4.6mn in Q1 compared to EUR 4.5mn in the same period of last year, which translated into a tiny 1% gain. As was expected, all 3 segments reached same level of EBIT due to the seasonal effects, but EBIT margin shrunk by 30bps YoY to 2.9% on cost inflation. The management remained confident that they could perform well over the next quarters as ...
- Gabor Bukta
Waberer's - Waberer’s could gain on Indotek’s Croatian expansion
The read across from Indotek's Croatian expansion to Waberer's is very positive as theHungarian fund buys Sberbank's 43% stake in Fortenova. Fortenova grupa was formed on April 1, 2019, with the successful implementation ofthe creditors’ settlement in Agrokor. The Group has over 50,000 employees throughcore businesses, including agriculture, retail and food, as well as non-core operations.By means of vertical integration, via agricultural and food production as well as its ownretail network, Fo...
- Gabor Bukta
Waberer's - Huge surprise, earnings at around pre-IPO levels
Waberer's reported a net income for Q4 of 5.9mn, resulting in a net income of EUR 18.1mnin 2021. Overall, earnings surprised to the upside as we expected a net income of EUR15mn for 2021. This report just cement our view that the Company has a compellingrisk/reward profile as shares in Waberer’s trade at a 41% discount to our TP of HUF 3,400as of writing. Considering the stable operations and a successful restructuring,undervaluation of the stock is fully unreasonable.
- Gabor Bukta
Waberers - Bold growth plans from the management
Waberer’s hosted a Capital Market Day on the 2nd of December where the managementcame up with an ambitious growth plan for the period between 2022 and 2025. Based onthe guidance, the management foresees revenues of EUR 807mn and EBIT of EUR 49mnby 2025, however they didn’t give an accurate projection for 2022, 2023 and 2024. Theyalso suggested that Group EBIT will likely come in at around EUR 20mn this year, which isbelow our estimate. We leave our recommendation on BUY with a TP of 3,400 HUF/sh...
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