EME Equity Market – February 2024 Market performance – a positive February, with the Polish WIG20 outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 3.7% mom in USD in February. The Polish WIG20 saw the strongest performance, adding 6.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Greek ASE (+4.2% mom), the Turkish ISE30 (+4.0% mom) and the Romanian BET (+2.6% mom) (all in EUR terms). There was a relatively muted performance in Hungary (+0.6% mom in EUR terms) and a decline in the Cze...
HEADLINES: • Graphisoft Park: 4Q23 – another year of growing earnings, FFO approaching EUR 15m in 2023 POSITIVE • NEPI Rockcastle: 2H23 – NOI grows by 13% yoy in 2023, on strong tenant sales POSITIVE • Bank of Cyprus: 4Q23 highlights and 2024E guidance POSITIVE • Coca-Cola Icecek: completes acquisition of Coca-Cola Bangladesh Beverages Ltd NEUTRAL • DIGI Communications: 4Q23E preview – 13% yoy EBITDA growth expected (due 28 February) • Sipchem: 4Q23E results preview (due on 28 February) NEUTRAL ...
HEADLINES: • GTC: 3Q23 - decides not to pursue Ultima deal POSITIVE • Dom Development: 3Q23 in line, management concerns about the sustainability of subsidised mortgages NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: 3Q23 results broadly in line with expectations NEUTRAL • NEPI Rockcastle: 9M23 trading update sees continued growth in footfall and average spend per visit POSITIVE • ONE United Properties: 3Q23 - staying the course, covering ground • Romgaz: 3Q23 conference call takeaways • Patria Bank: 3Q23 results - we...
EME Equity Market – October 2023 Market performance – election results prompt stellar market reaction in Poland; sell-off in Turkey. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 1.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.0% mom in USD in October. Poland staged a massive rebound, post the elections, with the WIG20 advancing 16.4% mom in EUR terms. Apart from Turkey, where October was a sell-off, with the ISE30 declining 13.7% mom in EUR terms, there were relatively muted performances everywhere else (BUX +2.1% / PX +0.4% / B...
HEADLINES: • Turkish food retailers: onwards and upwards (BIM and Migros and Sok Marketler stay BUY) • Asseco Poland: profitability rebound ahead (stays BUY) • Romania macro: NBR on hold, as expected • CD Projekt: 3m Phantom Liberty copies sold in first week, but budget exceeds our assumptions POSITIVE • Huuuge Games: 3Q23 bookings up 5% qoq POSITIVE • Ten Square Games: 3Q23 bookings recover 9% qoq POSITIVE • NEPI Rockcastle: Fortress (24% owner of NRP) may distribute NRP's shares to its shar...
HEADLINES: • Turkey macro: inflation outpaces CBT's expectations, yet again • Text: key takeaways from the 2Q23-24 preliminary earnings call NEUTRAL • Romanian oil and gas: government would like to adjust royalties with inflation NEGATIVE • Romania macro: draft law, with fiscal changes, contested at the Constitutional Court NEUTRAL • NEPI Rockcastle: scrip DPS take up remains high, at 74% POSITIVE • OMV: subsidiary Borealis starts up new Polyethylene Unit in the US • CD Projekt: Phantom Libert...
EME Equity Market – August 2023 Market performance – Turkey the top performer in August, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in August. Turkey, yet again, outperformed its peers, with the ISE30 gaining 9.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX index saw a solid performance in August, adding 6.1% mom in EUR terms, while the Romanian BET had a lacklustre month, barely making any gains (0.1% mom in EUR terms). Elsewhere, the index performances were neg...
HEADLINES: • NEPI Rockcastle: 1H23 - as if COVID-19 never happened POSITIVE • CD Projekt: presents new gameplay trailer of Phantom Liberty at Gamescom 2023 NEUTRAL • PCF Group: Bulletstorm VR (previously Thunder) to be released on 14 December 2023 • Purcari Wineries: 2Q23E results preview (due out tomorrow) • Polish utilities: 2Q23E - strong results, despite weak volumes and windfall tax (due in September)
HEADLINES: • CE4 macro: weak 2Q GDP, as expected • Benefit Systems: positive surprise in 2Q23 gross margin, strong FY23E guidance POSITIVE • Mo-BRUK: 2Q23 EBITDA 6% below our forecast on weaker top line NEGATIVE • Cyfrowy Polsat: 2Q23 results review - soft numbers, in line with expectations NEGATIVE • Transgaz: lower-than-expected net loss in 2Q23 NEUTRAL • Sok Marketler Ticaret: 2Q23 results - in line NEUTRAL • Halyk Savings Bank: 2Q23 results on track POSITIVE • Inter Cars: 2Q23 preliminary ...
EME Equity Market – May 2023 Market performance – in its election month and with talks of a return to investment grade starting to materialise, Greece outperformed, posting a stellar performance. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 2.3% mom in EUR terms, but lost 1.4% mom in USD in May. The Greek ASE Index saw the biggest gains (+12.3% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+6.2% mom in EUR terms) and the Turkish ISE 30 Index (+3.4% mom in EUR terms). The remaining geographies finis...
HEADLINES: • Benefit Systems: 1Q23 beats expectations materially, strong net cash position, sound trading update POSITIVE • Eurobank: 1Q23 results solid - upside risk to our FY23E forecasts POSITIVE • PKO BP: posts solid but neutral 1Q23 results, FX mortgage charges high, ROE at 15%+ NEUTRAL • STS Group: 1Q23 EBITDA up 12% yoy, in line with expectations NEUTRAL • DataWalk: actual reported 1Q23 numbers fully in line with the preliminary figures NEUTRAL • Asseco Poland: to buy back its own shares...
EME Equity Market – February 2023 Market performance – Greece and Czechia continue with good momentum; Turkey resumes rally. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 4.9% mom in EUR terms and 2.4% mom in USD in February. The Greek ASE and the Czech PX were, again, the best performers, adding 10.4% mom and 7.6% mom in EUR terms, respectively; while the rally resumed in Turkey, with the ISE 30 index gaining 7.3% mom in EUR terms. There was a somewhat muted performance in Hungary and Romania, with the BUX a...
HEADLINES: • Verbund: no reason for premium vs. peers (HOLD - initiation of coverage) • Graphisoft Park: 4Q22 - 0.5x P/NAV, 15% FFO yield, 6% dividend yield, stays BUY (PT changed to EUR 10.5) POSITIVE • NEPI Rockcastle: 2H22 - tenants' sales up mid-teens vs. 1H19, small revaluation gain on portfolio POSITIVE • Georgia Capital: takeaways from the 4Q earnings call NEUTRAL • Romgaz: statements from the CEO • HELLENIQ Energy: 4Q22E preview (due on 24 February) • Purcari Wineries: 4Q22E results -...
HEADLINES: • PZU: strong 3Q22 results - boding well for future earnings outlook POSITIVE • STS Group: 3Q22 results above expectations; strong start to 4Q POSITIVE • Motor Oil Hellas: 3Q results - refining outperformance • CA Immo: 3Q22 - capital rotation remains key focus, FFO guidance of EUR >125m reiterated • Immofinanz: 3Q22 - recurring results broadly in line, may take over controlling stake in S Immo • Grupa Pracuj: 3Q22 - adjusted EBITDA +14% yoy, 10% above our expectations POSITIVE • A...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: how Russia's fallout is reshaping CIS-plus • 11 bit studios: uninspiring 3Q22 EBITDA, slightly above our expectations, but below consensus NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: 3Q22 EBITDA rises by a solid 26% yoy, 8% ahead of consensus POSITIVE • Krka: margins rebound qoq on Russian stockpiling, books FX revaluation losses NEUTRAL • NEPI Rockcastle: 3Q22 - tenants' sales 17% above pre-pandemic levels in the summer POSITIVE • Electrica: takeaways from the 3Q22 earnings call POS...
NEPI Rockcastle’s (NRP) 3Q22 trading update confirmed that the tenants‘ sales performance during the summer was robust. The growth of turnovers accelerated in 3Q22, to +17% lfl vs. 3Q19. This is encouraging, as it should help NRP to pass the indexation in rents onto the tenants. That said, the extent of the passthrough of the utility costs will remain dictated by the sales dynamics during 2023E, and by the energy price level. Historically, service charges used to account for around one-third of ...
EME Equity Market – August 2022 Market performance – Turkey the biggest winner, in a predominantly bad month. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined 1.2% mom in EUR and 2.8% mom in USD terms. Turkey’s ISE index outperformed all other indices, adding 24.9% mom in EUR terms and 25.1% in local currency terms. Hungary’s benchmark, the BUX Index, added 1.1% mom and 0.2% mom in EUR and HUF terms, respectively. Greece’s ASE Index had a muted performance and added only 0.6% mom. All the other indices across ...
HEADLINES: • PZU: solid results, despite miss vs. market's expectations NEUTRAL • PGE: 2Q22 results - strong EBITDA beat, driven by positive non-cash one-offs POSITIVE • GTC: 2Q22 in line, to raise EUR 150-250m of equity to fund pivot to tech parks, renewables and PRS • Immofinanz: 2Q22 - top-line in line, one-offs weighing on FFO • NEPI Rockcastle: 1H22 - FFO in line, tenants' sales up 8% vs. 1H19, and 16% vs. 2Q19 • Kruk: books another solid quarter - 2Q22E profit estimate of PLN 245m POSIT...
NEPI Rockcastle has published its results for 1H22. At EUR 139m, the EPRA earnings came in almost exactly in line with our estimate, at EUR 0.23/share (our full-year estimate expects FFO of EUR 0.46/share for 2022E). The EPRA net reinstatement value (EPRA NRV) stood at EUR 6.64/share, translating into a P/NRV of 0.84x on yesterday’s close (23 August). If annualised, the FFO implies slightly over an 8% yield on the current share price. At 31.3%, the LTV remains among the lowest in the CEE listed ...
HEADLINES: • Ignitis Group: 2Q22 results review - solid results, EBITDA guidance hiked again • NEPI Rockcastle: 1H22 - FFO in line, tenants' sales up 8% vs. 1H19 NEUTRAL • GTC: 2Q22 results - recurring lines broadly in line, books small, positive revaluation gain NEUTRAL • Turkey macro: inflation scenarios and transition to hyperinflation accounting • Romanian energy: discussions on energy price regulations NEUTRAL • Cognor Holding: key takeaways from the 2Q22 earnings call NEUTRAL • Wirtualna...
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