Slight miss on adj. EBIT

Tryg AS: 2 directors

Two Directors at Tryg AS sold 65,000 shares at between 149.720DKK and 149.964DKK. The significance rating of the trade was 81/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last t...

Positive Easter effect

Tryg (Buy, TP: DKK185.00) - Earnings momentum still solid

Through both favourable weather and narrowing credit spreads, Q1 PTP was 48% higher YOY. Recent repricing efforts continue to take effect, as seen in a 0.3%-points improved underlying claims ratio YOY, although portfolio rebalancing weighed somewhat on growth. Supported by an outlook for abating motor claims pressure, we continue to find the investment case favourable. Having made limited EPS revisions for 2026–2027e, we reiterate our BUY and DKK185 target price.

A safer place to be

PTP beat from financials, UW inline

PTP beat from better financials, UW inline or a tad better. Reiterate '27 guidance and '25 premium growth from private/SMEs. Stock to outperform 1-3%; cons.est.rev. minor; strong read-x to GJF

Heads-up for Q1-report, 11 April

Nordic non-life Q1e: Should manage the turmoil

Efficient and with lower risk

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK15.00) - March traffic statistics

We consider this a slightly soft report for Norwegian Air Shuttle, with a slightly weaker load and yield for Norwegian Air only partly offset by strong performance from Widerøe. We expect consensus 2025e adj. EBITDA to come down by c1% on the back of the report and believe a neutral to slightly negative share price reaction is warranted.

March revenues 2.5% below

Group sales NOK 2.3bn, -2.5% vs us/cons on lower yield/load in NAS. Negative Easter effects, but April likely better - MTM EPS 25% above cons on lower fuel/weaker USD

Solid growth momentum into 2025e

Helped by benign weather with few storms, we expect solid underwriting across the Nordic P&C sector for Q1, with underlying performance further supported by earned repricing momentum and abating claims inflation. The sector is trading at an attractive average 2026e P/E of c15.2x and we see solid capital distribution prospects. We reiterate our recommendations on all our covered sector names and highlight Tryg as our top pick.

Non-life: Competition authority consider to look at the competition

The DCCA is out with report describing inefficient comp. Could be a drag for Tryg and ALMB despite the industry objections. ALMB drop looks attractive, but it could drag on for two more years.

More than just a dollar play

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK15.00) - Tailwinds ahead

We expect Norwegian Air Shuttle to report a weak Q1, hit by high capacity growth and Easter timing effects. However, we find the outlook for the summer season increasingly encouraging, with healthy demand, low supply growth and a positive cost impact from a weaker USD. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK15 (13) on positive revisions.

GN Store Nord: 1 director

A director at GN Store Nord bought 3,270 shares at 118.980DKK and the significance rating of the trade was 55/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly...

Ambea (Buy, TP: SEK130.00) - Acquiring Validia Oy

Ambea’s acquisition of Validia Oy, entering the Finnish social care market, makes good sense to us. A post-integration valuation of c7.5x EV/EBITA and tacit ROIC of c13% suggest a solid deal, and consolidating Validia Oy implies 4–5% increases to our 2025–2027e adj. EPS. We see a strong case, with robust demand, solid FCF and financials giving room for share buybacks/dividends and further possible acquisitions. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK130 (123).