Nordic non-life insurance – Q3 reporting wrap

Ambea AB: 7 directors

Seven Directors at Ambea AB sold/sold after exercising options 131,142 shares at between 97.000SEK and 99.500SEK. The significance rating of the trade was 55/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the com...

Oncopeptides (Buy, TP: SEK2.50) - Germany leads Q3 sales miss

Q3 sales were roughly half the level we expected – admittedly from a small base, but still a concern for us, since the miss was led by Germany, with much slower growth than recently. However, operating expenses were also less than we forecast, leaving an operating loss of SEK61m, a fraction better than our cSEK-63m. End-Q3 cash was SEK250m, which the company said would see it to positive cash flow in 2026e. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK2.5 (4.5) on increased uncertain...

Margin strength outshines weak Enterprise

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 11/07/2024

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ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 07/11/2024

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GN Group (Buy, TP: DKK230.00) - Looking for an upturn in Enterprise

Q3 sales missed, owing to Enterprise and Gaming & Consumer performing below expectations, while EBITA was strong at DKK553m (c5.1% above consensus). The 2024 guidance was cut for organic growth to 1–2%, maintained for a 12–13% EBITA margin, and raised for FCF to DKK1.1bn+. With flat growth in headsets for two consecutive quarters, offset by a speakerphone decline, we now forecast -3% organic growth in 2024 (-2% in Q4). We reiterate our BUY and DKK230 target price.

Q3 report: weak Germany weighs on sales

GN Store Nord : Q3 2023 review – Lower end of guidance range for Enter...

>Q3 review - Miss on top line, EBITA as expected, beat on EPS level - GN Store Nord achieved Q3 2024 revenues of DKK 4,164m (-6.3% y-o-y, -6%/-5% vs ODDO BHF/consensus). Q3 EBITA reached DKK 553m (+18.7% y-o-y, margin 13.3%), which was in line with our and the consensus’ expectations. EPS reached DKK 1.86, well ahead of our DKK 1.44 and consensus’ DKK 1.34.GN Hearing continues its strong market outperformance - GN Hearing’s Q3 revenues of DKK 1,725m (...

Relief warranted as margins hold up

Ambea (Buy, TP: SEK120.00) - Margin approaching 9.5% already

Q3 showed continued solid revenue, earnings and FCF generation, with Ambea close to reaching its medium-term >9.5% EBITA margin target (Q3 LTM 9.4%). We see a strong case, given: 1) the robust demand outlook combined with an asset-light, cash-generating model; 2) renewed execution on bolt-on acquisitions and dividends/share buybacks; and 3) an attractive valuation at 2024–2026e FCF yields of 9–11%. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK120 (110).

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK14.00) - October traffic statistics

We consider this a positive report for Norwegian Air Shuttle, including a yield above our expectation for Norwegian Air, higher revenues for Widerøe and positive outlook comments. We expect 5% positive revisions to consensus 2024e EBIT and believe a positive share price reaction is warranted.

Nov: 4% better sales on higher yield/load

Group sales 4% better driven by NAS on higher load and yield. Strong booking momentum for Winter and Christmas. Estm unchanged, stock up ~2%

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK14.00) - October traffic statistics...

Norwegian Air Shuttle is set to report October traffic statistics at 08:00 CET on 6 November. We are positive ahead of the report, forecasting a modest increase in yields and 9% ASK growth. We reiterate our BUY and NOK14 target price as we continue to believe the future is brighter than is discounted in the share price, with the stock trading at a 2024–2025e P/E of c7x.

GN Group (Buy, TP: DKK230.00) - Adding company consensus

GN Group recently released company consensus. We forecast Q3 organic revenue growth of 0.4% YOY (consensus -0.2%) and an EBITA margin of 12.5% (consensus 12.0%). We expect still-strong traction of Nexia, but Enterprise to decline organically YOY. We expect unchanged 2024 guidance for 2–6% organic revenue growth and a 12–13% EBITA margin. We reiterate our BUY and DKK230 target price.

Capacity crunch may spark pricing surge

Tryg (Buy, TP: DKK185.00) - Building on a solid foundation

We expect focus at the CMD set for 4 December to be on how best to utilise the scale achieved after the RSA transaction. Building on newfound scale in Sweden, together with profitability measures in Norway, we see continued underwriting improvements. In sum, we expect Tryg to update its key financial targets for 2027, with a combined ratio of ≤80% and an insurance service result of DKK8.2bn–8.6bn. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK185 (180), having increased our 2025–20...

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK14.00) - Weak Q3, bookings satisfac...

Norwegian Air Shuttle’s Q3 report disappointed on weak results and a narrowed guidance below our expectations and consensus. Nevertheless, with the stock trading at a 2024e P/E of 6.5x on our revised estimates, and bookings up 20% YOY, we believe the future is brighter than is discounted in the stock price. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK14 (15) on lower forecasts.