EME Equity Market – September 2025 Romanian BET led in September, while Türkiye and Hungary lagged. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 1.1% in USD terms. The Romanian BET was the top performer, adding 3.6% in EUR terms; followed by the Czech PX (+3.2% mom) and the Polish WIG20 (+1.1% mom) (all in EUR terms); while there was a muted performance from the Greek ASE (+0.6% mom in EUR terms). The Turkish ISE30 and the Hungarian BUX were the worst performing indices in September(...
HEADLINES: • Allegro: 1Q25 results spot on our expectations; lower bound of FY25E guidance increased POSITIVE • Colt CZ Group: 2Q25 results – slightly below the consensus; no changes in FY25E guidance • Mavi: 2Q25 results miss expectations; 2025E guidance lowered NEGATIVE • Echo Investment: 2Q25 – sales could unlock net cash equivalent to one-third of market cap • Auto Partner: 2Q25 EBITDA broadly in line with our and the market's expectations NEUTRAL • Lamda Development: 2Q25 – yield compressio...
HEADLINES: • Noval Property: 1H25 – FFO en route to exceed our FY estimate POSITIVE • Aegean Airlines: 2Q25 in line; cash flow contracting; guidance encouraging NEUTRAL • Tauron: 2Q25 results fully in line with the preliminaries NEUTRAL • OMV Petrom: special dividend proposal POSITIVE • Shoper: acquires remaining 40% stake in Sempire for PLN 15m, as expected NEUTRAL • Solutions by STC: signs framework agreement with Saudi Aramco POSITIVE
HEADLINES: • Inter Cars: 2Q25 EBITDA misses our and the market's expectations by 4-5% NEGATIVE • Eurozone macro: so far, so good • Colt CZ Group SE: multiple military contracts POSITIVE • CEZ: Babis will not buy CEZ "at any price" NEUTRAL • Polish utilities: PGE, Enea and Tauron contract 5.9 GW of new capacity obligations for 2026 NEUTRAL • Romania macro: inflation soars in August • Türkiye macro: interest rates drop, but monetary stance remains tight • LPP: 2Q25E results preview – 13% yoy EBITD...
HEADLINES: • Sarantis: 1H25 in line with expectations; profit guidance unchanged NEUTRAL • GEK Terna: 1H25 earnings beat on one-offs; broadly in line on an underlying basis POSITIVE • Footshop: 2Q25 broadly in line with our estimates; 2025E guidance unchanged NEUTRAL • PGE: 2Q25 results fully in line with preliminaries NEUTRAL • Enea: 2Q25 conference call highlights NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: August sales growth decelerates to 5% yoy NEGATIVE • Georgia Capital: announces early redemption of USD 100m ...
HEADLINES: • Metlen Energy & Metals: 1H25 EBITDA -6% yoy, hit by one-offs NEUTRAL • Enea: full 2Q25 results in line with preliminaries NEUTRAL • CCC: CEO finds back-to-school sales strong, maintains FY25E guidance, considering buyback POSITIVE • Tofas: details of new LCV model (K9) announced POSITIVE • Sarantis: 1H25E preview – 14% yoy EBITDA growth expected (due out today, after the close) NEUTRAL • GEK Terna: 1H25E results preview (due out tomorrow) • VIGO Photonics: 2Q25E results preview – 76...
EME Equity Market – August 2025 Corrections in Poland and the broader MSCI EM Europe. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 2.3% mom in EUR terms and was flat (0.0%) in USD terms in August. The Hungarian BUX was the top performer, adding 2.2% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET (+1.9% mom), the Czech PX (+1.7% mom) and the Greek ASE (+1.4% mom) (all in EUR terms); while there was a muted performance from the Turkish ISE 30 (+0.4% mom in EUR terms). The biggest loser was the Polish WIG ...
HEADLINES: • PZU: 2Q25 results – beat on the bottom line, but insurance operations show some weakness and delivered below expectations NEUTRAL • Dom Development: 2Q25 results – beat driven by stellar 37% gross profit margin POSITIVE • Bank Handlowy: neutral 2Q25 results – beat on underlying bottom line driven by bond sales gains; negative NII trend NEUTRAL • Eurocash: 2Q25 – slightly above low expectations; new strategy publication in November POSITIVE • DataWalk: 2Q25 actual numbers fully in li...
HEADLINES: • Tupras: enjoying life in the margins (stays BUY) • Kruk: 2Q25 beat, on a positive tax balance, lower financial costs and a drop in the cost to collect ratio POSITIVE • Wirtualna Polska: 2Q25 results review – adjusted EBITDA up 24% yoy, 6% above the consensus; weak 2H25E outlook NEGATIVE • Enea: preliminary 2Q25 EBITDA 15% above our expectations, supported by strong Supply and better Generation; PLN 2.8bn capex, including wind farm acquisitions POSITIVE • Gentoo Media: 2Q25 financial...
HEADLINES: • Alior Bank: solid 2Q25, with a beat vs. the market's expectations on stronger other income and lower LLPs POSITIVE • Richter: 2Q25 results broadly in line NEUTRAL • Aselsan: 2Q25 results – strong beat, driven by operating performance POSITIVE • Turkish Airlines: 2Q25 – EBIT above the consensus on better costs POSITIVE • Isbank: 2Q25 highlights – a mixed bag, but management sounds confident in sharp margin recovery in 2H25E • Cimsa: 2Q25 financial results review – strong revenue grow...
HEADLINES: • Romanian Banks: fishing in Romania’s murky waters (Banca Transilvania stays BUY, BRD-GSG stays HOLD) • Komercni Banka: closing the rerating bet (downgraded to HOLD) • MONETA Money Bank: priced for perfection, but needs to deliver (stays HOLD) • Pepco Group: 3Q25 revenues of New Pepco up 8% yoy, in line with expectations; FY25E guidance maintained; EUR 50m buyback NEUTRAL • Jumbo: 1H25 sales up by a solid 8% yoy, as largely expected NEUTRAL • Polish utilities: Ministry of State Asset...
EME Equity Market – May 2025 EME indices mostly in the green in May, apart from Türkiye. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 3.6% mom in EUR and USD terms. The Greek ASE index (+7.8% mom) was the best performer, followed by the Czech PX (+6.6% mom) and Romanian BET indices (+5.0% mom), the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom) and the Polish WIG20 (+2.0% mom; all in EUR terms). The Turkish ISE30 Index was, again, the worst performer, with a more modest decline (-1.4% mom in EUR terms) this time.
HEADLINES: • Gentoo Media: one step back, two steps forward (stays BUY) • Colt CZ Group SE: 1Q25 results – strong beat, no change in guidance POSITIVE • Mo-BRUK: 1Q25 earnings call – management optimistic on 2H25E, but we see challenges NEGATIVE • Cyfrowy Polsat: key takeaways from the 1Q25 earnings call NEUTRAL • Tauron: 1Q25 conference call highlights NEUTRAL • Elbit Systems: raises USD 512m on the Nasdaq POSITIVE • Athens Exchange Group: 1Q25E preview (due on 26 May) • Motor Oil Hellas: 1Q25E...
HEADLINES: • Mo-BRUK: 1Q25 EBITDA 7% below our forecast, but a substantial 24% miss vs. the consensus NEGATIVE • Doosan Skoda Power: weak 1Q25 – EBITDA down 70% yoy NEGATIVE • Cyfrowy Polsat: 1Q25 results review – adjusted EBITDA up 5% yoy, in line with the consensus NEUTRAL • Cyfrowy Polsat: Liechtenstein court dismisses Zygmunt Solorz's lawsuit against his children POSITIVE • Pepco Group: 1H25 slightly below expectations on worsening Poundland; lfl improvement at Pepco; another EUR 234m impair...
HEADLINES: • Elbit Systems: 1Q25 results – top-down driven beat POSITIVE • Public Power Corporation: uninspiring 1Q25 results, as expected POSITIVE • Trade Estates: 1Q25 – strong turnovers driving rents higher POSITIVE • Enea: full 1Q25 results in line with the preliminaries NEUTRAL • cyber_Folks: 1Q25 results review – EBITDA +46% yoy, 4% above the consensus POSITIVE • Vercom: 1Q25 results review – 24% yoy EBITDA growth, in line with the consensus NEUTRAL • Shoper: 1Q25 above expectations, but F...
HEADLINES: • Optima Bank: a touch of Midas, none of Icarus (BUY - initiation of coverage) • PKO BP: solid 1Q25 results, in line with expectations NEUTRAL • Sok Marketler Ticaret: 1Q25 results – significant miss NEGATIVE • Richter: 1Q25 results in line NEUTRAL • Arabian Drilling: 1Q25 results NEUTRAL • Tauron: 1Q25 preliminary EBITDA 16% above our expectations POSITIVE • Kaspi.kz: 1Q25 highlights; 2025E guidance revised down NEGATIVE • Bank of Cyprus: 1Q25 results highlights • Zabka (NOT RATED): ...
HEADLINES: • Raiffeisen Bank International: 1Q25 results largely in line NEUTRAL • ADNOC Distribution: 1Q25 results NEUTRAL • Enea: preliminary 1Q25 EBITDA 13% above our expectations, driven by strong Supply; only 8% of 2025E capex plan realisation POSITIVE • Titan America: soft 1Q25 results, guidance unchanged NEUTRAL • Romania macro: reflections on the resignation of PM Ciolacu • Brisa: takeaways from the 1Q25 earnings call NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: earnings call takeaways - targeting 2025E revenu...
EME Equity Market – April 2025 EME indices mostly in the red in April, Hungarian BUX and Greek ASE the exceptions. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 2.0% mom in EUR terms, but was up 2.9% mom in USD terms in April. The Hungarian BUX was the best performer, followed by the Greek ASE index (+3.5% and 0.8% mom in EUR terms, respectively). There was a slight decline in the Polish WIG20, and more pronounced deteriorations in the Romanian BET and Czech PX indices (-0.6%, -2.0% and -4.2% mom in EUR ...
HEADLINES: • Bank Pekao: very solid 1Q25, supporting our 2025E 20%+ ROE, trading at 1.3x BV and a 9%+ yield very attractive • Komercni Banka: beat on 1Q25 bottom line driven by LLPs releases, pre-provision profit falls short of expectations NEUTRAL • Erste Bank: 1Q25 results in line; 2025E ROTE guidance sustained, but market focus on potential big M&A effort • mBank: 1Q25 solid, but valuation reflects recovery already; 2025E revenue guidance a little disappointing • Santander Bank Polska: solid ...
HEADLINES: • Halyk Bank: efficient frontier (stays BUY) • Diagnostyka: 4Q24 prelims and DPS proposal ahead of expectations POSITIVE • Kety: 1Q25 results in line with the preliminaries, PLN 48.78 DPS proposed NEUTRAL • Kety: new strategy assumes PLN 1.35bn in EBITDA in 2029E, close to our forecast NEUTRAL • CEZ: said to be nearing sale of nuclear SPV to the State POSITIVE • Poland macro: mixed results in March • Greece macro: 2024 budget surplus triggers one-off fiscal easing this year • Kazatomp...
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