HEADLINES: • Romanian Banks: fishing in Romania’s murky waters (Banca Transilvania stays BUY, BRD-GSG stays HOLD) • Komercni Banka: closing the rerating bet (downgraded to HOLD) • MONETA Money Bank: priced for perfection, but needs to deliver (stays HOLD) • Pepco Group: 3Q25 revenues of New Pepco up 8% yoy, in line with expectations; FY25E guidance maintained; EUR 50m buyback NEUTRAL • Jumbo: 1H25 sales up by a solid 8% yoy, as largely expected NEUTRAL • Polish utilities: Ministry of State Asset...
EME Equity Market – May 2025 EME indices mostly in the green in May, apart from Türkiye. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 3.6% mom in EUR and USD terms. The Greek ASE index (+7.8% mom) was the best performer, followed by the Czech PX (+6.6% mom) and Romanian BET indices (+5.0% mom), the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom) and the Polish WIG20 (+2.0% mom; all in EUR terms). The Turkish ISE30 Index was, again, the worst performer, with a more modest decline (-1.4% mom in EUR terms) this time.
HEADLINES: • Gentoo Media: one step back, two steps forward (stays BUY) • Colt CZ Group SE: 1Q25 results – strong beat, no change in guidance POSITIVE • Mo-BRUK: 1Q25 earnings call – management optimistic on 2H25E, but we see challenges NEGATIVE • Cyfrowy Polsat: key takeaways from the 1Q25 earnings call NEUTRAL • Tauron: 1Q25 conference call highlights NEUTRAL • Elbit Systems: raises USD 512m on the Nasdaq POSITIVE • Athens Exchange Group: 1Q25E preview (due on 26 May) • Motor Oil Hellas: 1Q25E...
HEADLINES: • Mo-BRUK: 1Q25 EBITDA 7% below our forecast, but a substantial 24% miss vs. the consensus NEGATIVE • Doosan Skoda Power: weak 1Q25 – EBITDA down 70% yoy NEGATIVE • Cyfrowy Polsat: 1Q25 results review – adjusted EBITDA up 5% yoy, in line with the consensus NEUTRAL • Cyfrowy Polsat: Liechtenstein court dismisses Zygmunt Solorz's lawsuit against his children POSITIVE • Pepco Group: 1H25 slightly below expectations on worsening Poundland; lfl improvement at Pepco; another EUR 234m impair...
HEADLINES: • Elbit Systems: 1Q25 results – top-down driven beat POSITIVE • Public Power Corporation: uninspiring 1Q25 results, as expected POSITIVE • Trade Estates: 1Q25 – strong turnovers driving rents higher POSITIVE • Enea: full 1Q25 results in line with the preliminaries NEUTRAL • cyber_Folks: 1Q25 results review – EBITDA +46% yoy, 4% above the consensus POSITIVE • Vercom: 1Q25 results review – 24% yoy EBITDA growth, in line with the consensus NEUTRAL • Shoper: 1Q25 above expectations, but F...
HEADLINES: • Optima Bank: a touch of Midas, none of Icarus (BUY - initiation of coverage) • PKO BP: solid 1Q25 results, in line with expectations NEUTRAL • Sok Marketler Ticaret: 1Q25 results – significant miss NEGATIVE • Richter: 1Q25 results in line NEUTRAL • Arabian Drilling: 1Q25 results NEUTRAL • Tauron: 1Q25 preliminary EBITDA 16% above our expectations POSITIVE • Kaspi.kz: 1Q25 highlights; 2025E guidance revised down NEGATIVE • Bank of Cyprus: 1Q25 results highlights • Zabka (NOT RATED): ...
HEADLINES: • Raiffeisen Bank International: 1Q25 results largely in line NEUTRAL • ADNOC Distribution: 1Q25 results NEUTRAL • Enea: preliminary 1Q25 EBITDA 13% above our expectations, driven by strong Supply; only 8% of 2025E capex plan realisation POSITIVE • Titan America: soft 1Q25 results, guidance unchanged NEUTRAL • Romania macro: reflections on the resignation of PM Ciolacu • Brisa: takeaways from the 1Q25 earnings call NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: earnings call takeaways - targeting 2025E revenu...
EME Equity Market – April 2025 EME indices mostly in the red in April, Hungarian BUX and Greek ASE the exceptions. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 2.0% mom in EUR terms, but was up 2.9% mom in USD terms in April. The Hungarian BUX was the best performer, followed by the Greek ASE index (+3.5% and 0.8% mom in EUR terms, respectively). There was a slight decline in the Polish WIG20, and more pronounced deteriorations in the Romanian BET and Czech PX indices (-0.6%, -2.0% and -4.2% mom in EUR ...
HEADLINES: • Bank Pekao: very solid 1Q25, supporting our 2025E 20%+ ROE, trading at 1.3x BV and a 9%+ yield very attractive • Komercni Banka: beat on 1Q25 bottom line driven by LLPs releases, pre-provision profit falls short of expectations NEUTRAL • Erste Bank: 1Q25 results in line; 2025E ROTE guidance sustained, but market focus on potential big M&A effort • mBank: 1Q25 solid, but valuation reflects recovery already; 2025E revenue guidance a little disappointing • Santander Bank Polska: solid ...
HEADLINES: • Halyk Bank: efficient frontier (stays BUY) • Diagnostyka: 4Q24 prelims and DPS proposal ahead of expectations POSITIVE • Kety: 1Q25 results in line with the preliminaries, PLN 48.78 DPS proposed NEUTRAL • Kety: new strategy assumes PLN 1.35bn in EBITDA in 2029E, close to our forecast NEUTRAL • CEZ: said to be nearing sale of nuclear SPV to the State POSITIVE • Poland macro: mixed results in March • Greece macro: 2024 budget surplus triggers one-off fiscal easing this year • Kazatomp...
HEADLINES: • Theon International: Noctis in Dies* (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Huuuge Games: 4Q24 adjusted EBITDA 5% above our forecast, share buybacks not a priority NEUTRAL • PGE: key takeaways from the 4Q24 results call NEUTRAL • Tauron: key takeaways from the 4Q24 results call NEUTRAL • Auto Partner: earnings call takeaways – challenging 1Q25E, but rather optimistic on FY25E outlook NEUTRAL • InPost: acquisition of Yodel for GBP 106m debt swap NEUTRAL • Diagnostyka: 4Q24E preview – 35% y...
HEADLINES: • Titan Cement: cementing its leadership (BUY - transfer of coverage) • 11 bit studios: 4Q24 adjusted EBITDA above our expectations, headlines hit by substantial write-offs POSITIVE • PGE: full 4Q24 results in line with the preliminaries NEUTRAL • Tauron: full 4Q24 results in line with the preliminaries NEUTRAL • VIGO Photonics: 1Q25 sales up 39% yoy, to PLN 22.1m POSITIVE • OPAP: Greek gaming market up by a strong 15% yoy in 2M25 POSITIVE • Kazatomprom: signs supply agreement with CE...
HEADLINES: • Wirtualna Polska: shifting up a gear for e-commerce growth (stays BUY) • OMV: making chemical bonds (stays BUY) • Budimex: final 4Q24 results confirm prelims fully NEUTRAL • Budimex: recommends PLN 25.43 DPS from the 2024 earnings, 4.5% dividend yield NEUTRAL • Cyfrowy Polsat: key takeaways from the 4Q24 earnings call NEUTRAL • Enea: key takeaways from the 4Q24 conference NEUTRAL • 11 bit studios: release date of The Alters set as 13 June NEUTRAL
HEADLINES: • Enea: full 4Q24 results in line with preliminaries; PLN 7.9bn capex planned in 2025E NEGATIVE • Cyfrowy Polsat: 4Q24 results review – adjusted EBITDA up 15% yoy, in line with the consensus NEUTRAL • Kruk: issues 1Q25 trading statement NEUTRAL • Aegean Airlines: 1Q25 traffic – a strong start to the year POSITIVE • Turkish Airlines: 1Q25 traffic – 4% ASK growth yoy NEUTRAL • Auto Partner: March sales growth recovers to 13% yoy, but still well below our FY expectations NEUTRAL • Bank M...
EME Equity Market – March 2025 Türkiye hammered, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 0.5% in EUR terms and 4.5% mom in USD terms in March. The Czech PX Index was the best performer (+7.0% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Greek ASE (+4.8% mom), Polish WIG (+3.7% mom) and Hungarian BUX(+1.3% mom) indices (all in EUR terms). There was a muted performance from the Romanian BET Index (-0.1% mom in EUR terms). The Turkish ISE30 finished in the red again, declining 9.5% mom in EUR terms.
HEADLINES: • Orange Polska: strategy focused on growth (stays BUY) • Ignitis Group: making headway (BUY - transfer of coverage) • PZU: 4Q24 well ahead of expectations, holding structure to be created within PZU group POSITIVE • Grupa Pracuj: 4Q24 results – EBITDA up 9% yoy, 9% above our forecast and 1% above the consensus POSITIVE • Colt CZ Group SE: FY24 results review NEUTRAL • Public Power Corporation: 4Q24 earnings, and preview of a potential mega data centre NEUTRAL • Lamda Development: 4Q2...
HEADLINES: • Benefit Systems: pumping iron (stays BUY) • Jeronimo Martins: small beat in 4Q24, Biedronka margin erosion slows down; tough market environment continues in 2025 POSITIVE • OPAP: the beat goes on, in 4Q24 POSITIVE • Tauron: preliminary 4Q24 EBITDA 45% above our estimate, on strong Generation and Distribution, and lower loss in Supply POSITIVE • Türkiye macro: assessment of recent political events • Allegro vs. InPost: our take on the companies' two calls • cyber_Folks / Shoper: key ...
HEADLINES: • Benefit Systems: conditional USD 420m agreement to buy leading MAC Group fitness chain in Türkiye POSITIVE • Inter Cars: February sales growth decelerates to 3% yoy NEGATIVE • CTP: issues EUR 1bn of green bonds in two tranches, 6Y and 10Y POSITIVE • Ford Otosan: signs agreement with Iveco to develop heavy truck cabin models NEUTRAL • Polish utilities: comments on electricity price freeze for 4Q25 NEUTRAL • Baltic Classifieds Group: acquires Lithuanian real estate valuation platform ...
HEADLINES: • GEK Terna: it’s a new dawn, it’s a new day, it’s a new GEK (BUY – transfer of coverage) • Alior Bank: solid 4Q24; dividend guidance implies 10% yield; market awaiting strategic update, due on 25 March POSITIVE • Coca-Cola Icecek: significant miss in the 4Q24 results NEGATIVE • Pegasus Airlines: 4Q24 – better RASK, higher CASKX, decent guidance • OMV: agrees on Borealis, Borouge and Nova Chemicals deal with ADNOC POSITIVE • Alpha Services and Holdings: Paulson entity offers 57m share...
HEADLINES: • MedLife: and let the operational gearing begin (upgraded to BUY) • Enea: preliminary 4Q24 results broadly in line with expectations NEUTRAL • Elm: 4Q24 conference call takeaways • 4iG: 4Q24 earnings call takeaways NEUTRAL • Türkiye macro: February inflation performs better than the CBT’s projections • OMV: agrees on Borealis, Borouge and Nova chemicals deal with ADNOC POSITIVE • InPost: extension of available financing to PLN 4.2bn, from PLN 2.8bn POSITIVE • Wizz Air: February capac...
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