HEADLINES: • Jumbo: 1H20 results - strong vs. other Greek retailers • Kofola: 2Q20 results - weak, but solid dividend and raised 2020 EBITDA guidance are sweeteners POSITIVE • PGE: 2Q20 results in line with prelims NEUTRAL • Mavi: 2Q20 review and takeaways from the call POSITIVE • Poland macro: NBP holds rates unchanged • CCC: PLN 250m credit line with BGK guarantee POSITIVE • Polish banks: Supreme Court issues a ruling on a specific case - not much impact NEGATIVE • CEZ: launches tender for P...
EME Equity Market – July 2020 Market performance – majority of indices in the red, with the ISE30 Index down 12.6%. Following its mediocre decline in June, the MSCI EM Europe Index declined 4.4% in EUR terms, but gained 0.4% in local currency terms in July. Following the rather large decline in the Turkish equities, the MOEX Index was also down, 3.5%, in July; while the Athens’ benchmark declined 3.3% and the Romanian BET Index fell 3.2%. Following its gain last month, the PX Index decline...
EME Equity Market – May 2020 Market performance – the rebound that started in April continued across the board, with the Romanian BET Index gaining the most in EUR terms (+8.9% mom). The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 6% in EUR terms and 7.5% in local currency; while the Romania BET Index grew 8.9% in EUR terms and 9.1% in RON terms, the best performer for the month. The MOEX Index added 7.5%, while the Polish WIG20 Index was up 6.6%. The Turkish benchmark, the ISE30 Index, added 4.5%, and the ...
HEADLINES: • AmRest: 1Q20 poor, as expected, covenants breach, followed by very short waiver NEGATIVE • Dino: 1Q20 beat on 20% lfl POSITIVE • Rosneft: 1Q20 - strong FCF and net debt reduction POSITIVE • Moscow Exchange: 5% beat on adjusted EBITDA, mainly on lower opex POSITIVE • CE4 macro: relative calm before the storm • Vakifbank: TWF to acquire 36% of the bank for TRY 4.98/share • Bogdanka: suspends 2019 dividend • Polish utilities: more comments on mining and power consol...
HEADLINES: • BIM: major 1Q20 beat on sales, e-commerce on the horizon POSITIVE • 11 bit studios: 1Q20 results - strong beat from top to bottom POSITIVE • MedLife: 1Q20 earnings beat on margin expansion POSITIVE • Romgaz: posts strong 1Q results POSITIVE • Transelectrica: 1Q20 results above expectations POSITIVE • Warsaw Stock Exchange: 1Q20 EBITDA up 30% yoy and 10% above market's expectations POSITIVE • O2 Czech Republic: strong 1Q20 results, with EBITDA up 7% yoy, in line with ex...
HEADLINES: • CEE banks: there are no winners, just survivors (coverage universe update) • CEE consumers: #stayathome (coverage universe update) • Warsaw Stock Exchange: 4Q19 EBIT misses consensus by 8% on higher-than-expected opex NEGATIVE • Norilsk Nickel: declares final dividend in line with expectations, and nominates new Board NEUTRAL • MOL: update on business conditions, dividend suspended • OMV: 1Q20 trading update • OMV Petrom: 1Q20 trading update • LPP: CEO expects s...
The development of the COVID-19 pandemic has changed the landscape for consumer names materially. While #stayathome is slowing down the contagion, it has infected the foundations of discretionary retailers severely. At the same time, the staples players have seen a sales boost, especially in the e-commerce space. Facing such a storm among the especially vulnerable players hurt by store lockdowns and carrying high leverage, we identify: AmRest, CCC, Kofola and Fourlis. On the other hand, FMCG dis...
EME Equity Market – March 2020 Market performance – all stock indices in the region were down in March, with the BET the best performer in EUR terms (-16.7%). The MSCI Emerging Markets Europe Index lost 25.8% in EUR terms, while the Czech PX Index was down 24.8%. Other regional stock markets were not far behind, with the BUX Index losing 22.8% in EUR terms, followed by the ASE Index (-22.5% mom), the Russian MOEX (-22.4% mom), the Polish WIG20 (-18.5% mom) and the Turkish ISE30 (-19.8% mom)....
HEADLINES: • EME macro: policy measures so far • Czech Republic macro: MPC cuts to 1.00% and signals further easing • NLMK: cuts capex guidance and reiterates strong liquidity position POSITIVE • Coca-Cola HBC: withdraws 2020E guidance, still plans to propose a dividend NEUTRAL • Transelectrica: proposes lower than expected dividend NEGATIVE • Kety: 4Q19 results in line with the company's forecasts • Polish retail real estate: government has no plans to support landlords NEGATIV...
HEADLINES: • Polish banks: head of the PFSA advises banks and insurers to retain 2019 net profit NEGATIVE • Polish banks: auditors start to comment on how Polish banks should approach credit risk • Banca Transilvania: lower dividend payout from 2019 earnings • NLB Group: conference call takeaways • CA Immo: 4Q19 - strong quarter, low LTV, plentiful liquidity - well-positioned for the future POSITIVE • 11 bit studios: 4Q19 beat on lower royalties POSITIVE • Kofola: 4Q19 results ...
EME Equity Market – January 2020 Market performance – Hungarian BUX the weakest performer in January, by far. While the MSCI Emerging Markets Europe Index lost 0.6% in EUR terms and 2.3% in LCU terms in January, the Hungarian BUX was down 8.3% in EUR terms and 6.5% in HUF terms. The Polish WIG20 also fell quite substantially, -4.9% in EUR terms and -3.9% in PLN terms; followed by Prague’s PX Index, which dropped 3.1% in EUR terms and -3.9% in CZK terms. While the MOEX Index lost 0.8% in EU...
EME Equity Market – December 2019 Market performance – all markets in the black, with the BUX recording the highest increase. The MSCI EME rose by 4.0% in December, while the BUX index reported a very solid performance, up 6.6% mom, followed by the MOEX (+5.8% mom), Prague’s PX index (+3.8% mom), the Greek ASE (+1.7% mom), the Polish WIG20 (+1.0% mom), Romania’s BET (+0.8% mom), and the Turkish ISE30 (+0.2% mom) (all in EUR terms).
HEADLINES: • Cyfrowy Polsat: bids to purchase a 21.95% stake in Asseco Poland for PLN 65/share NEUTRAL • QIWI: feedback from the conference call NEUTRAL • Kety: 4Q19 preliminary EBITDA 4% above our expectations POSITIVE • Kofola: sells its 50% stake in its Russian associate POSITIVE • Jeronimo Martins: up to PLN 500 wage hikes in the New Year NEUTRAL • mBank: press speculates more on mBank takeover details NEUTRAL • Alior Bank: wants to take advantage of PSD2 • Fourlis: agreemen...
HEADLINES: • Ten Square Games: turning players into payers (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Sberbank: analyst day takeaways - value and dividend story intact • Terna Energy: reassuring numbers in 9M19 results • Russian telecoms: Megafon, Rostelecom, MTS and Vimpelcom sign MoU to jointly develop 5G in Russia POSITIVE • Ciech: court waives Bydgoszcz tax office's decisions POSITIVE • Kofola: acquires two brands of mineral water for the Czech market POSITIVE • Magyar Telekom: annou...
EME Equity Market – November 2019 Market performance – the weakest performance in November was recorded by the Polish WIG20 Index, in both EUR- and PLN-terms (-2.9% mom and -1.6% mom, respectively). While the MSCI Index lost 0.4% in local currency terms, it gained 0.8% in EUR terms. With the exception of Poland, all the other indices recorded a positive performance, with the Turkish ISE30 gaining 8.9% (EUR terms) over the month. The BET Index was the second-best performer, increasing by 3.2%...
HEADLINES: • OPAP: winner of the Derby (stays BUY) • Play Communications: strong 3Q19 results, with adjusted EBITDA up 16% yoy and FCF guidance lifted POSITIVE • Sphera Franchise Group: 3Q19 results above expectations on costs POSITIVE • Eurocash: 3Q19 results slightly above expectations on one-off and improving retail NEUTRAL • PGE: 3Q19 results in line with prelims, 2020E outlook provided NEUTRAL • Wizz Air: 2Q20 - broadly in line at first glance, net profit guidance revised up PO...
HEADLINES: • CEZ: 3Q19 miss, upward restatement of 1H19 on revaluation of derivatives NEGATIVE • Benefit Systems: 39% beat on EBIT and FY guidance raised POSITIVE • Kofola: 3Q19 - solid results, driven by Adriatic region POSITIVE • CCC: extends credit line with Bank Pekao POSITIVE • Polish utilities: updated long-term energy policy draft released & offshore wind regulation prepared NEUTRAL • Polish utilities: Energy Ministry to be scrapped • Polish telecoms: Polish-Russian agree...
HEADLINES: • Polyus: low grade ore stockpiling to lower FCF (downgraded to HOLD) • Vakifbank: 3Q19 results review - 9M19 net income down 50% yoy • BIM: 3Q19 results - below expectations NEGATIVE • Aygaz: 3Q19 results review NEUTRAL • NIS: 3Q19 results NEUTRAL • Romanian politics: Presidential election results (first round) • Bucharest Stock Exchange: 3Q19 results review - strong NI on good cost control and financial income POSITIVE • AmRest: key takeaways from the 3Q conferenc...
EME Equity Market – August 2019 Market performance – pressure on all markets, only the BET flattish. The MSCI EME contracted by 4.9% mom in August, while the ASE index fell by 3.5% and Moscow’s index dropped by 3.8%. Bucharest’s BET index was the only one to rise, if only marginally, by 0.4% mom. The worst performer was Turkey’s ISE30, losing 10.8% mom, while the WIG20 index was down 8.3% mom, the BUX index dropped by 4.1% mom, and Prague’s PX index fell by 2.8% mom.
HEADLINES: • DIGI Communications: strong 2Q19 results, with EBITDA ex.IFRS 16 up 26% yoy POSITIVE • Romgaz: 2Q19 results review - revenue growth continues, despite gas price capping POSITIVE • Electrica: 2Q19 strong performance vs. our expectations, particularly in supply POSITIVE • Transelectrica: small loss in 2Q19, should be clawed back NEUTRAL • Banca Transilvania: 2Q19 results in line with our expectations NEUTRAL • Transgaz: weak 2Q19 results, in line with expectations NEUTRAL ...
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