Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK274.00) - High on market turbulence

Nordnet looks on track to post its highest profit ever in Q1e, with ongoing market volatility driving the highest trading activity since the pandemic. We continue to see attractive upside potential at a 2025–2026e P/E of c20x, given our expectation of >10% EPS growth from 2026. We have cut our 2026–2027e EPS by c4% on lower stock market values, and our target price to SEK274 (286), but reiterate our BUY.

Nolato (Buy, TP: SEK64.00) - Maintaining stability

We expect 4% organic growth YOY for Q1 (Modular Finance consensus 6%) and further increased growth towards end-2025 and into 2026, when the new order in Medical Solutions should start to contribute. We have reduced our 2025–2026e EBITA by 5–6% on updated FX and slightly lower contract rollout expectations for Medical Solutions. We reiterate our BUY but have reduced our target price to SEK64 (65).

Thriving in the current environment

March web-activity insights

Web-activity data from March indicates roughly flat trading activity MOM for Avanza and Nordnet, and one of the most active months in three years despite negative seasonality. For Q1e, we see c20% upside potential on Avanza’s trading-related commissions, c15% on Nordnet’s. The platforms are due to release their March statistics on 3 April.

Truecaller (Buy, TP: SEK95.00) - Dominance in India

We recently made an investor trip to India, where we met with the management team and discussed Truecaller’s operations, supporting our positive view. Perhaps the key highlight was that all but one person we talked to were users of Truecaller. This shows the exceptional position Truecaller has in India, and the reason why the free version should be able to sustain a dominant position in that market. Below we list five main conclusions from our trip to India.

BioArctic AB: 1 director

A director at BioArctic AB sold 27,270 shares at 220.415SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 92/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly s...

February web-activity insights

Web-activity data points to trading activity up 2–5% MOM for Avanza and Nordnet in February, potentially the second-most active month in three years. For Q1e, we see upside potential to Avanza’s and Nordnet’s transaction-related commissions, since activity seems to be holding up better than the consensus view of an imminent rapid normalisation. The platforms are due to release their February statistics on 5 March.

Truecaller (Buy, TP: SEK95.00) -

Revenue grew 23% YOY, driven by a 16% increase in DAU. The company intends to increase growth investments in 2025, driving our positive revenue revisions. We maintain our favourable view of the iOS launch, and reiterate our BUY. We have raised our target price to SEK95 (80).

Truecaller (Buy, TP: SEK95.00) - Growth accelerating

Revenue grew 23% YOY, driven by a 16% increase in DAU. The company intends to increase growth investments in 2025, driving our positive revenue revisions. We maintain our favourable view of the iOS launch, and reiterate our BUY. We have raised our target price to SEK95 (80).

BioArctic (Buy, TP: SEK350.00) - Large milestones in 2025e

The Q4 report was slightly better than we expected. The royalty levels were already known, but the operating loss was below our forecast due to lower R&D and S&M spending. In 2025, BioArctic is set to receive cUSD130m in milestone payments from Bristol-Myers Squibb (due to the Brain Transporter deal) and Eisai (for EU approval as well as a sales milestone). The next important event is set to be the CHMP meeting in February that should (again) result in a positive opinion for Leqembi’s EU approva...

Nolato (Buy, TP: SEK65.00) - Q4 signals strength ahead

Sales growth was 6% YOY (Modular Finance consensus 3%), of which organic growth was 5%. EBITA was SEK240m (3% above consensus), and EPS was SEK0.61 (2% above consensus). The EBITA beat was primarily driven by Engineered Solutions, which exceeded consensus by 14%. This was largely due to a strong Materials performance, supported by a recovery in the Telecom market. We have raised our EBITA by 1% in 2025e and by 6% for 2026e, and our target price to SEK65 (64), while we reiterate our BUY.

Truecaller (Buy, TP: SEK80.00) - Case for 2025 yet to unfold

We expect solid Q4 revenues, but given our higher incentive cost estimate, we are 5% below consensus on EBITDA (results due at 07:30 CET on 18 February). However, key to the case in our view is the recent launch of Truecaller’s iOS product, which we believe will drive solid revenue growth and consensus higher. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to SEK80 (60).

Bilia AB (Buy, TP: SEK160.00) - 2025 earnings outlook optimism

The highlights from Q4 were its 20%+ new car order intake (the first time in 14 quarters with a positive YOY trend in its service margin) and the c8% beat on operating earnings. With a gradual improvement among the private consumers, a stronger leasing market for new cars, and a stable service business, earnings growth for 2025 looks promising (we forecast +56% YOY), in our view. We reiterate our BUY, but have raised our target price to SEK160 (145) on the recent revaluation of the stock.

Bilia AB (Buy, TP: SEK145.00) - Better-than-expected Q4 results

We consider this a positive report for Bilia, including Q4 operating earnings c8% above consensus, a continued recovery in new car sales and stable service levels, but DPS slightly below expectations. We expect consensus 2025e operating earnings to come up c0–2% on the back of the results and a positive share price reaction.

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK286.00) - German optionality at a modest cost

Nordnet unveiled plans to launch in Germany by H2 2026, targeting profitability by 2029; while the latter looks optimistic to us, the SEK100m guided additional annual costs appear modest given the option value inherent in the huge addressable savings market. Near-term, we see plenty of other growth drivers to accelerate inflows and return Nordnet to >10% EPS growth in 2026e, including macro tailwinds for retail savers, strong stock markets, and the group’s intensified marketing efforts. We have ...

Awaiting a better entry

NII and transaction income stood out in Q4

Valuation not thrilling enough

Nolato (Buy, TP: SEK64.00) - Turning the corner

We forecast 2% organic growth in Q4, indicating 2024 was almost flat, after two challenging years of negative growth; we expect further improvements in 2025 and 2026. Following a change of analyst, we have made minor divisional estimate changes and cut our 2025–2026e EBITA by 5–8%. We reiterate our BUY but have reduced our target price to SEK64 (66) to reflect the new organisation.

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK270.00) - Fuel for higher growth in 2025e

We see plenty of growth drivers to accelerate Nordnet’s inflows in 2025e and restore it to >10% EPS growth in 2026e, including macroeconomic tailwinds for household savers, strong equity markets, intensified marketing efforts, and the recent launch of Livrente in Denmark. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by 1–2% and our target price to SEK270 (255), and reiterate our BUY.