BioArctic (Buy, TP: SEK350.00) - Positive CHMP opinion

With the positive CHMP opinion after the Q3 report, the quarterly results were a non-event. Leqembi can now be launched in the first markets in Europe in H1 2025. On the development side, BioArctic highlighted the pre-clinical data on its Brain Transporter (BT) technology, which showed the mechanism significantly increases the transport of large molecules (mAbs) across the blood brain barrier (BBB). We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK350 (270), adding the EU market oppor...

Truecaller (Buy, TP: SEK60.00) - iOS launch improving growth

Q3 was solid overall, with record subscriber intake, a return to growth in advertising revenues, and 15% YOY revenue growth. We believe the iOS launch set for Q4 will help boost User revenue growth. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK60 (53).

Fairly valued given short-term growth outlook

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK255.00) - Several rate-cut mitigants in 2025e

We see plenty of growth drivers to mitigate the EPS drop in 2025e (given the likely rate cut headwinds), and restore Nordnet to >10% EPS growth in 2026e, including: the near-term launch of Livrente in Denmark, macro tailwinds for household savers, widening credit margins in loans and liquidity portfolios, and share buybacks. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by 1–2% and our target price to SEK255 (252), and reiterate our BUY.

Q3 in line with expectations

Bilia AB (Buy, TP: SEK150.00) - Mixed Q3

We consider this a mixed report for Bilia, including a stronger-than-expected service business offset by a weaker car business, resulting in in-line operating earnings. However, new car order intake was on the soft side, while bookings in its service workshops remain good. We expect consensus 2024e operating earnings to remain largely unchanged, but EPS to come down 3–4%. We expect a neutral share price reaction.

Truecaller (Buy, TP: SEK53.00) - Expecting 16% revenue growth in Q3

We expect a return to growth in Advertising revenues in Q3, broadly stable growth QOQ in User revenues, and increased momentum in Truecaller for Business (TfB) following price rises. We expect the launch of the new iOS product to improve User growth further in Q4 and in 2025. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to SEK53 (50).

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK252.00) - Starting the shift away from NII

Q3 looks set to mark the start of a 4-quarter trend of falling NII. Nevertheless, our long-term structural growth case is intact and we expect rising commissions to have compensated for most of the NII decline by 2026e. We reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to SEK252 (256), having reduced our 2025–2026e PTP by c4%, mainly on lower NII.

Valuation lofty while growth decelerates

Bilia AB (Buy, TP: SEK150.00) - Recovery likely pushed to 2025

We are cautious ahead of the Q3 report, as a likely recovery in car earnings is pushed to 2025e, while we expect service earnings to be flattish on still-restrained consumer sentiment near-term. Nevertheless, with c+40% EPS growth in 2025e on a forecast new-car market recovery next year, we remain positive on the stock. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK150 (160), mainly on lower estimates.

A surfer on the long-term tailwinds

BioArctic (Buy, TP: SEK270.00) - Negative CHMP opinion fully reflected...

Q2 earnings included slightly higher R&D costs than we forecast. While royalties from Leqembi sales were known, the positive sales trend was overshadowed by the negative opinion for lecanemab from the CHMP earlier in Q3. We have removed our European estimates (until we know the outcome of the re-examination). However, we believe the share price reaction is overdone and reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to SEK270 (350).

August web-activity insights

Web-activity data points to trading activity in August being up MOM for Avanza and Nordnet, suggesting a stronger uptick than usual seasonality. Consensus also seems to have overlooked a substantially increased number of trading days in Q3. Based on this, we see upside potential to consensus on Q3e brokerage income for both stocks (more for Avanza). The platforms are due to release their August statistics on 4 September.

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK256.00) - Fund fees taking the torch

Facing NII headwinds from rate cuts, we expect fund fees to buoy the revenue trend – so were encouraged by Q2’s positive fund flow trends and stabilising fund margins. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by 0-1% and our target price to SEK256 (254), and reiterate our BUY.

Fairly valued for decelerating growth

Transaction income and NII drove earnings beat in Q2'24. Underlying net earnings up by 1-2% for 2024-26e. Flattish earnings growth in H2'24e for 12m fwd P/E of 21x – HOLD.

Transaction income & NII drives Q2 beat

Truecaller (Buy, TP: SEK50.00) - Improved recurring revenue

Advertising revenues were under pressure in Q2 and there are no signs of a near-term recovery. However, user/subscriber intake is strong and User revenues and TfB are accelerating. We reiterate our BUY and SEK50 target price.

Nolato (Buy, TP: SEK66.00) - Continued margin improvement

Nolato reported a Q2 with net sales and EBITA 3% below our estimates, driven mainly by slower organic growth than we expected in Medical Solutions, and a quicker phasing out of VHP volumes. However, the EBITA margin expanded 200bp YOY and 30bp QOQ, again indicating that Nolato’s cost-efficiency programme and strategic price increases have indented effects. We have edged down our 2024–2025e EBITA by 1%. We reiterate our BUY and SEK66 target price.

Bilia AB (Buy, TP: SEK160.00) - On the right track despite mixed Q2

While the car business’s operating earnings beat consensus on a recovering Norwegian market, the service business missed consensus by c8% with Sweden weighed down by start-up and implementation costs for workshop and new operations. We still expect high campaign activity to boost new car sales in Q3, and the used car and service business to perform well in H2. We reiterate our BUY and SEK160 target price.

Bilia AB (Buy, TP: SEK160.00) - Soft Q2

We consider this a weak report for Bilia, including operating earnings below consensus and somewhat soft new car order intake. We expect consensus 2024e operating earnings to come down c2–4% on the back of the report and expect a negative share price reaction.