Takeaways from Nordic Opportunities seminar in London

Bilia AB: 1 director

A director at Bilia AB sold 4,000 shares at 131.500SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 69/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showin...

Earnings growth set to pick up

Income slightly softer than expected in Q3

Strong cross-border trading to benefit Q3

BioArctic AB: 2 directors

Two Directors at BioArctic AB sold 2,400,000 shares at 300.000SEK. The significance rating of the trade was 70/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearl...

Earnings growth to accelerate in H2'25e

Q2 in line with cons. but with a soft mix

Market leader at a supportive valuation

Truecaller (Buy, TP: SEK90.00) - Set for continuation of Q4 trends

For Q1 (results due at 07:30 CET on 8 May), we see similar trends as in Q4. We forecast 20% YOY revenue growth, driven by User revenues and Truecaller for Business (TfB), but expect EBITDA to be affected by incentive costs. We reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to SEK90 (95).

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK293.00) - Firing on all cylinders

Both Q1 revenues and PTP were record-high (both up 11% YOY), powered by strong brokerage income and resilient NII despite falling rates. Activity looks elevated going into Q2, and we see upside potential to NII consensus estimates. The total return profile remains attractive on our expectation of c10% long-term EPS growth and a c5% total yield. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK293 (274).

A prospering market leader

Q1 beat driven by strong transaction income

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK274.00) - High on market turbulence

Nordnet looks on track to post its highest profit ever in Q1e, with ongoing market volatility driving the highest trading activity since the pandemic. We continue to see attractive upside potential at a 2025–2026e P/E of c20x, given our expectation of >10% EPS growth from 2026. We have cut our 2026–2027e EPS by c4% on lower stock market values, and our target price to SEK274 (286), but reiterate our BUY.

Nolato (Buy, TP: SEK64.00) - Maintaining stability

We expect 4% organic growth YOY for Q1 (Modular Finance consensus 6%) and further increased growth towards end-2025 and into 2026, when the new order in Medical Solutions should start to contribute. We have reduced our 2025–2026e EBITA by 5–6% on updated FX and slightly lower contract rollout expectations for Medical Solutions. We reiterate our BUY but have reduced our target price to SEK64 (65).

Thriving in the current environment

March web-activity insights

Web-activity data from March indicates roughly flat trading activity MOM for Avanza and Nordnet, and one of the most active months in three years despite negative seasonality. For Q1e, we see c20% upside potential on Avanza’s trading-related commissions, c15% on Nordnet’s. The platforms are due to release their March statistics on 3 April.

Truecaller (Buy, TP: SEK95.00) - Dominance in India

We recently made an investor trip to India, where we met with the management team and discussed Truecaller’s operations, supporting our positive view. Perhaps the key highlight was that all but one person we talked to were users of Truecaller. This shows the exceptional position Truecaller has in India, and the reason why the free version should be able to sustain a dominant position in that market. Below we list five main conclusions from our trip to India.

February web-activity insights

Web-activity data points to trading activity up 2–5% MOM for Avanza and Nordnet in February, potentially the second-most active month in three years. For Q1e, we see upside potential to Avanza’s and Nordnet’s transaction-related commissions, since activity seems to be holding up better than the consensus view of an imminent rapid normalisation. The platforms are due to release their February statistics on 5 March.

Truecaller (Buy, TP: SEK95.00) -

Revenue grew 23% YOY, driven by a 16% increase in DAU. The company intends to increase growth investments in 2025, driving our positive revenue revisions. We maintain our favourable view of the iOS launch, and reiterate our BUY. We have raised our target price to SEK95 (80).