EME Equity Market - September 2024 EME indices mostly in the red in September; rebound in Greece. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined 2.0% in EUR terms and 1.1% in USD terms in September. The Greek ASE Index was the best performer in our region, advancing 1.4% mom in EUR terms. Muted performances were seen in Czechia and Hungary (+0.3% and +0.2% mom, respectively in EUR terms), with declines in Poland, Romania and Turkey (-3.6%, -2.9% and -1.5% mom, respectively in EUR terms).
HEADLINES: • BIM: weak results in 2Q24 NEGATIVE • GEK Terna: 1H24 EBITDA climbs 7%, to EUR 269m, as broadly expected NEUTRAL • Jumbo: 1H24 results in line, EGM approves share buyback plan NEUTRAL • LPP: key takeaways from the 2Q24 results call POSITIVE • Bank Pekao: appoints Marcin Zygmanowicz and dismisses Magdalena Zmitrowicz from the management board NEUTRAL • Cyfrowy Polsat: Solorz announces plans to dismiss his children from the company NEUTRAL • Mo-BRUK: signs new PLN 12.2m contract for “e...
Robust H1 with adj. EBITDA and net profit +5% yoy; FY24 guidance out of sync with H1 performance – Jumbo has announced quite solid H1 results in line with our estimates, delivering 5.5% adj. EBITDA growth on +8% sales increase (the latter was pre-announced). Underpinning the robust performance was the surprising resilience of gross margins (flat yoy at 55.3%), as Jumbo continued to navigate supply chain challenges efficiently, which was only partly diluted by opex inflation (opex +13% yoy, due t...
Robust H1 with adj. EBITDA and net profit +5% yoy; FY24 guidance out of sync with H1 performance – Jumbo has announced quite solid H1 results in line with our estimates, delivering 5.5% adj. EBITDA growth on +8% sales increase (the latter was pre-announced). Underpinning the robust performance was the surprising resilience of gross margins (flat yoy at 55.3%), as Jumbo continued to navigate supply chain challenges efficiently, which was only partly diluted by opex inflation (opex +13% yoy, due t...
The ATHEX has shed c3% since the start of August, significantly underperforming vs both broader Europe (Stoxx 600 +0.7%) and periphery markets (MIB +2.8%). Performance has been weighed down primarily by banks, which have fallen c7% over the period, compared to a c4% return registered by their EU peers. Non-financials have also stalled, with just a handful of companies in the green since August (mostly from the mid-cap space). Of note is that this move is out of sync with fundamentals, as most co...
The ATHEX has shed c3% since the start of August, significantly underperforming vs both broader Europe (Stoxx 600 +0.7%) and periphery markets (MIB +2.8%). Performance has been weighed down primarily by banks, which have fallen c7% over the period, compared to a c4% return registered by their EU peers. Non-financials have also stalled, with just a handful of companies in the green since August (mostly from the mid-cap space). Of note is that this move is out of sync with fundamentals, as most co...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (16-22 September) • Raiffeisen Bank International: signs agreement targeted at sale of its Belarusian operations • 11 bit studios: Frostpunk 2 post-release player reviews and player count disappoint NEGATIVE • PCF Group: updates timeframe for strategy implementation, new PLN 350m financing needed in 2025-26E NEGATIVE • Kety: takeaways from the Investor Day NEUTRAL • ADNOC Distribution: Board approves interim dividend NEUTRAL • VIGO Photonics: beg...
HEADLINES: • Kaspi.kz: stock down 17% yesterday on report by short seller Culper • Kety: 3Q24 preliminary results close to our expectations NEUTRAL • Logo Yazilim: CMC approves cancellation of treasury shares POSITIVE • Wizz Air: 24-hour strike called for 24 September by third-party Italian union • AUGA Group: coverage discontinued • Short News (CEZ)
HEADLINES: • GEVORKYAN: 2Q24 EBITDA down 12% yoy on one-off costs NEUTRAL • Auto Partner: 2Q24 slightly ahead of expectations NEUTRAL • CCC: change of Modivo CEO NEUTRAL • NEPI Rockcastle: potential acquisition of Magnolia Park • Kety: 3Q24E preview – stable EBITDA (+4% yoy) expected (due on 19 September)
Due to changes in analyst responsibilities, we transfer coverage of Kety, with a 12M price target (PT) of PLN 920/share, implying 20% upside potential and a BUY rating. Kety produces aluminium parts for the automotive industry, flexible packaging for the food industry, and aluminium systems for the construction industry. The company intends to present a new strategy by the end of this year, and we expect it to focus on foreign expansion through acquisitions. We believe this is a necessary strate...
EME Equity Market – August 2024 A red month for the EME indices, with only the Czech PX index in positive territory. The MSCI EM Europe index declined by 4.7% in EUR terms and 2.6% in USD terms in August. The Czech PX index was the only index to report a positive figure, adding 0.5% mom in EUR terms. The rest of the indices were in the red: the Turkish ISE30 index was down 11.5% mom in EUR terms, followed by Greece (-3.2% mom), Romania (-2.6% mom) and Hungary (-1.2% mom; all in EUR terms). The P...
HEADLINES: Dino Polska: 5-13% EBITDA miss in 2Q24, first yoy EBITDA drop since IPO NEGATIVE Bank of Georgia: 2Q24 highlights NEUTRAL Kazatomprom: 2Q24 results and 2025E production guidance POSITIVE Brisa: bottom line hit by financing costs, taxes; FY24 demand outlook remains challenging NEUTRAL Warsaw Stock Exchange: 2Q24 results NEGATIVE Budimex: 2Q24 results fully in line with the prelims NEUTRAL Benefit Systems: earnings call takeaways – supportive 2025E profitability outlook for Poland NEUTR...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: how strong are the recession signals? • Richter: well-rounded 2Q24 beat vs. the consensus POSITIVE • Tupras: 2Q24 results and dividend announcement POSITIVE • Turkish Airlines: 2Q24 – RASK up 1% and CASKX up 8% yoy, driving margins lower from peak levels, as expected NEUTRAL • Arabian Drilling: 2Q24 results below expectations NEGATIVE • Air Astana Group: 2Q24 in line, but 1H24 EBIT and FCFE both down yoy, and VietJet entry into Kazakhstan a risk NEUTRAL • KazMuna...
EME Equity Market – June 2024 Another positive month for most of the EME indices, with the Hungarian BUX Index outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index rose by 1.0% in EUR terms, but declined -0.2% in USD terms in June. The Hungarian BUX index reported the strongest performance, adding 4.8% in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET and the Polish WIG20 (+3.7% and 2.1%, in EUR terms, respectively), and the Turkish ISE30 (+0.9% in EUR terms). Greece and the Czech Republic were in negative territor...
HEADLINES: • mBank: 2Q24E CHF mortgage saga cost at PLN 1bn NEGATIVE • CTP: issues EUR 500m unsecured loan at 4.7% fixed, buys back EUR 500m of outstanding bonds POSITIVE • Europe macro: June surveys confirm stagnant industry, but rising inflation expectations • Türkiye macro: CBT extends the hawkish hold • Czech Republic macro: CNB preparing the ground for slower rate cuts • Warsaw Stock Exchange: OGM approves dividend of PLN 3/share NEUTRAL • Cyfrowy Polsat: to invest in 500 MW wind farm proje...
A director at Grupa Kęty S.A. sold 2,096 shares at 905.000PLN and the significance rating of the trade was 83/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly...
HEADLINES: • Ford Otosan: getting ready to fire on all cylinders (upgraded to BUY) • Czech Republic macro: May inflation moderates, to hit the low point soon • Hungary macro: May inflation up, but in line with expectations • Richter: acquires Mithra assets for an EV of EUR 175m NEUTRAL • Jumbo: turnover +10%/+8% in May/5M24 POSITIVE • OMV Petrom: to invest EUR 750m in renewable fuels at Petrobrasi refinery NEUTRAL • Short News (ALR, PKO)
EME Equity Market – May 2024 Turkish equities lead, in the mostly green month of May. The MSCI EM Europe Index rose by 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 1.8% mom in LCU terms in May. The Turkish ISE30 index reported the strongest performance, adding 3.6% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET and the Czech PX (+2.7% and 2.1% mom in EUR terms, respectively). The Hungarian BUX index and the Polish WIG20 remained broadly flat (+0.4% and +0.2% mom in EUR terms, respectively); although, in LCU terms,...
HEADLINES: • Georgia Capital: announces two new buyback programmes POSITIVE • HELLENiQ Energy: 1Q24 results – mildly above expectations POSITIVE • Warsaw Stock Exchange: bottom-line miss and further margin compression in the 1Q24 results NEGATIVE • Bank of Cyprus: 1Q24 highlights POSITIVE • Alpha Services and Holdings: 1Q24 highlights – trading-related beat, but NIM and fees evolve better than expected • Eurobank Ergasias Services: 1Q24 highlights – helped by trading income, but good quarter ove...
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