Favor Defensives as S&P 500 Tests 4165-4200 The S&P 500 is approaching the 4165-4200 area; we continue to believe this will cap upside in 2023, but we also acknowledge that a move to 4300-4325 is possible... see chart below. Considering limited upside in both scenarios, we continue to recommend shifting to defensives, particularly Health Care (XLV), Utilities (RYU, XLU), Consumer Staples (XLP), and precious metals miners (GDX). Index Overview. Downside targets for the S&P 500 continue to be at...
Upgrading Communications, Downgrading Staples In our January 10th Compass, we discussed that a break above 3910 on the S&P 500 would signal a tradable rally, with 4100-4165 our target, which is the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range. We believe equities are still in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area. Upgrading Communications to Market Weight. We have been underweight Communications (XLC, EWCO) since November of 2021, a peri...
We are pleased with the strategic changes Deutsche Telekom is making. In January 2016, the company sold its stake in EE for a 12% stake in the enlarged BT Group and slightly more than GBP 2 billion in cash. This removes DT from directly competing in one of the most difficult markets in Europe, but leaves it as the largest shareholder in the only telephone company in the United Kingdom that fully owns and controls its own fixed-line and wireless telecom networks, leaving it well positioned for th...
Deutsche Telekom reported strong first-quarter revenue, but we don’t anticipate any significant changes to our EUR 17 fair value estimate for the local shares. We continue to believe that the firm doesn’t have a moat and that the stock is slightly undervalued. The firm reported revenue grew 8.7% year over year versus our full-year projection of 6.1%. DT benefited from the continued success of T-Mobile US, where revenue grew 7%. (For more on the U.S. division, please see our April 26 note). I...
Deutsche Telekom reported strong first-quarter revenue, but we don’t anticipate any significant changes to our EUR 17 fair value estimate for the local shares. We continue to believe that the firm doesn’t have a moat and that the stock is slightly undervalued. The firm reported revenue grew 8.7% year over year versus our full-year projection of 6.1%. DT benefited from the continued success of T-Mobile US, where revenue grew 7%. (For more on the U.S. division, please see our April 26 note). ...
Deutsche Telekom reported strong first-quarter revenue, but we don’t anticipate any significant changes to our EUR 17 fair value estimate for the local shares. We continue to believe that the firm doesn’t have a moat and that the stock is slightly undervalued. The firm reported revenue grew 8.7% year over year versus our full-year projection of 6.1%. DT benefited from the continued success of T-Mobile US, where revenue grew 7%. (For more on the U.S. division, please see our April 26 note). I...
We are pleased with the strategic changes Deutsche Telekom is making. In January 2016, the company sold its stake in EE for a 12% stake in the enlarged BT Group and slightly more than GBP 2 billion in cash. This removes DT from directly competing in one of the most difficult markets in Europe, but leaves it as the largest shareholder in the only telephone company in the United Kingdom that fully owns and controls its own fixed-line and wireless telecom networks, leaving it well positioned for th...
Deutsche Telekom reported solid fourth-quarter results, which pushed its full-year results slightly ahead of our projections. However, we already expected a strong 2019, so our projections are in line with management’s 2019 guidance. Thus, we don’t anticipate any significant changes to our EUR 17 per local share fair value estimate. Our no-moat rating remains intact, and we believe the shares are slightly undervalued. The firm reported revenue growth of 5.7% year over year in the fourth qu...
Deutsche Telekom reported solid fourth-quarter results, which pushed its full-year results slightly ahead of our projections. However, we already expected a strong 2019, so our projections are in line with management’s 2019 guidance. Thus, we don’t anticipate any significant changes to our EUR 17 per local share fair value estimate. Our no-moat rating remains intact, and we believe the shares are slightly undervalued. The firm reported revenue growth of 5.7% year over year in the fourth q...
Deutsche Telekom reported solid fourth-quarter results, which pushed its full-year results slightly ahead of our projections. However, we already expected a strong 2019, so our projections are in line with management’s 2019 guidance. Thus, we don’t anticipate any significant changes to our EUR 17 per local share fair value estimate. Our no-moat rating remains intact, and we believe the shares are slightly undervalued. The firm reported revenue growth of 5.7% year over year in the fourth qu...
On Nov. 27, Deutsche Telekom announced the European Commission unconditionally approved its acquisition of Tele2’s operations in the Netherlands. We were sceptical of the deal being approved after the commission had previously rejected other four-to-three wireless telecom mergers. While we had not expected the deal to be approved, it doesn’t change our EUR 17 Deutsche Telekom or SEK 91 Tele2 fair value estimates, or our no-moat ratings for both companies. We now model the companies as if th...
On Nov. 27, Deutsche Telekom announced the European Commission unconditionally approved its acquisition of Tele2’s operations in the Netherlands. We were sceptical of the deal being approved after the commission had previously rejected other four-to-three wireless telecom mergers. While we had not expected the deal to be approved, it doesn’t change our EUR 17 Deutsche Telekom or SEK 91 Tele2 fair value estimates, or our no-moat ratings for both companies. We now model the companies as if th...
On Nov. 27, Deutsche Telekom announced the European Commission unconditionally approved its acquisition of Tele2’s operations in the Netherlands. We were sceptical of the deal being approved after the commission had previously rejected other four-to-three wireless telecom mergers. While we had not expected the deal to be approved, it doesn’t change our EUR 17 Deutsche Telekom or SEK 91 Tele2 fair value estimates, or our no-moat ratings for both companies. We now model the companies as if the...
Deutsche Telekom reported solid third-quarter results, but we are maintaining our EUR 17 per local share fair value estimate and no-moat rating. We believe the shares are undervalued, but there are more interesting telecom names in Europe, namely Telefonica, Vodafone, and BT Group. The firm reported revenue grew 4.7% year over year in the third quarter, but revenue remains slightly negative for the nine-month period versus our full-year projection of a slight revenue gain. The U.S. returned to ...
Deutsche Telekom reported solid third-quarter results, but we are maintaining our EUR 17 per local share fair value estimate and no-moat rating. We believe the shares are undervalued, but there are more interesting telecom names in Europe, namely Telefonica, Vodafone, and BT Group. The firm reported revenue grew 4.7% year over year in the third quarter, but revenue remains slightly negative for the nine-month period versus our full-year projection of a slight revenue gain. The U.S. returned to t...
We are pleased with the strategic changes Deutsche Telekom is making. In January 2016, the company sold its stake in EE for a 12% stake in the enlarged BT Group and slightly more than GBP 2 billion in cash. This removes DT from directly competing in one of the most difficult markets in Europe, but leaves it as the largest shareholder in the only telephone company in the United Kingdom that fully owns and controls its own fixed-line and wireless telecom networks, leaving it well positioned for th...
We are pleased with the strategic changes Deutsche Telekom is making. In January 2016, the company sold its stake in EE for a 12% stake in the enlarged BT Group and slightly more than GBP 2 billion in cash. This removes DT from directly competing in one of the most difficult markets in Europe, but leaves it as the largest shareholder in the only telephone company in the United Kingdom that fully owns and controls its own fixed-line and wireless telecom networks, leaving it well positioned for th...
Deutsche Telekom reported mixed second-quarter results, with weak revenue growth but strong EBITDA margins. We anticipate that these items will basically offset each other when we update our model, and we expect to maintain our EUR 17 local share fair value estimate. Our no-moat rating is unchanged. The shares remain slightly undervalued. The firm reported that revenue fell 2.7% year over year, though the majority of this was from the euro weakening against the U.S. dollar. Organically, revenue ...
Deutsche Telekom reported mixed second-quarter results, with weak revenue growth but strong EBITDA margins. We anticipate that these items will basically offset each other when we update our model, and we expect to maintain our EUR 17 local share fair value estimate. Our no-moat rating is unchanged. The shares remain slightly undervalued. The firm reported that revenue fell 2.7% year over year, though the majority of this was from the euro weakening against the U.S. dollar. Organically, revenue ...
Deutsche Telekom reported mixed second-quarter results, with weak revenue growth but strong EBITDA margins. We anticipate that these items will basically offset each other when we update our model, and we expect to maintain our EUR 17 local share fair value estimate. Our no-moat rating is unchanged. The shares remain slightly undervalued. The firm reported that revenue fell 2.7% year over year, though the majority of this was from the euro weakening against the U.S. dollar. Organically, revenue ...
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