reports
- Yusra Beg
The Searle Company: 2QFY23 Review - Faring better than peers
SEARL has announced 2QFY23 NPAT of PKR365mn (EPS: PKR0.93), down 31% YoY, but up 38% QoQ led by improved margins – a seasonal increase in our view. This takes 1HFY23 NPAT to PKR629mn (EPS: PKR1.61), down 56% YoY. Sharp earnings contraction is primarily led by (i) higher raw material and distribution costs and inability to pass on the same and (ii) higher finance costs. SEARL did not announce any dividends in line with expectations. 2QFY23 KEY RESULT HIGHLIGHTS: * SEARL has reported revenue o...
- Yusra Beg
AGP Limited: Macroeconomic headwinds weighing down on margins
AGP reported 4QCY22 consolidated NPAT of PKR527mn (EPS: PKR1.88), down 17% YoY but up a strong 2.1x QoQ. This takes CY22 NPAT to PKR1.6bn (EPS: PKR5.61), down 10% YoY. This is led by visible pressure on margins with inflation tracking c.25% and limited room for price pass-on. Results were accompanied with a final cash dividend of PKR2.0/sh. 4QCY22 KEY RESULT HIGHLIGHTS: * AGP’s revenues rose to PKR4.0bn in 4QCY22, up 18% YoY and 20% QoQ. Order flow remains on track while the company is manag...
- Yusra Beg
Pakistan Pharmaceuticals: Some relief on the way
As per news sources, the Health Ministry and DRAP have forwarded a summary to the federal cabinet, seeking upto 350% increase in prices of 119 medicines. These includes drugs used in the treatment of typhoid, malaria, colds and other diseases. To recall, over 70 drug makers applied for an ad-hoc increase in drug prices to counter the impact of high inflation (7MFY23 average CPI: 25.4%) and sharp PKR devaluation (+50% since Jan’22). This will help address shortage of medicines in the country a...
The Searle Company Ltd: 1 director
A director at The Searle Company Ltd sold 200,000 shares at 83.690PKR and the significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years...
- Yusra Beg
AGP Limited: 4QCY21 review – Sandoz leads sharp jump in sales in 4Q
AGP reported 4QCY21 consolidated NPAT of PKR632mn (EPS: PKR2.26), up 51% yoy and 85%qoq. This takes CY21 NPAT to PKR1.7bn (EPS: PKR6.24), up 10%yoy. The result is better than expected led by strong sales from Sandoz Pakistan (PKR1.3bn) and standalone sales from AGP, while trade disruptions in Afghanistan are subsiding. Results were accompanied with a final cash dividend of PKR2.5/sh. 4QCY21 KEY RESULT HIGHLIGHTS: * AGP’s revenues rose to PKR3.4bn in 4QCY21, 73% yoy and 47% qoq. Revenue from ...
- Yusra Beg
AGP Limited: 3QCY21 review – Strong result despite an earnings miss
AGP has reported 3QCY21 NPAT of PKR342mn (EPS: PKR1.22), down 17% yoy and 12%qoq. The result is lower than our estimated EPS of PKR1.60, where the deviation has stemmed from disruptions in the Afghanistan business with sales suspended due to border closure – barring which this is a strong result by AGP, in our view. The result takes 9M net profits to PKR1.1bn (EPS: PKR3.98/sh), down 5% yoy. AGP has successfully consolidated Sandoz Pakistan, where sales from the same are in line at PKR750mn, a...
- Yusra Beg
AGP Limited: 3QCY21 preview – Sandoz expected to be consolidated this ...
AGP is expected to announce its 3QCY21 results tomorrow, where we estimate a NPAT of PKR449mn (EPS: PKR1.65), up 8% yoy and 15% qoq, taking estimated 9MCY21 NPAT to PKR1.2bn (EPS: PKR4.41), up 4% yoy. We assume that the company has received corporate and regulatory approvals for the consolidation of OBS AGP (Private) Limited into AGP, during the quarter, with a 65% equity stake in the former held by AGP. 3QCY21 KEY EXPECTATIONS: * We estimate sales of PKR2.6bn, up a sharp 43% yoy and 29% qoq...
- Yusra Beg
AGP Limited: 2QCY21 review – Sales cross the PKR2bn per quarter mark
AGP has reported 2QCY21 NPAT of PKR389mn (EPS: PKR1.39), up 21% yoy and flat qoq. This takes 1HCY21 NPAT to PKR772mn (EPS: PKR2.76), up 2%yoy. The result is above our expected EPS of PKR1.20, with the earnings beat stemming from sharp 41%yoy jump in sales. We understand this partially led by the sale of Sputnik vaccines and strong core performance. 2QCY21 RESULTS HIGHLIGHTS: * AGP reported revenue of PKR2.0bn, up a sharp 41%yoy and 22%qoq. We understand this is led by strong core performance...
- Yusra Beg
AGP Limited: Sandoz acquisition is priced in; Neutral
We raise our CY21-25f EPS estimates for AGP by 18% on average after consolidating the acquisition of over 20 brands of Sandoz Pakistan. This leads us to raise our Dec’21 TP to PKR142 from PKR115 previously. That said, recent price run-up (c.30%CYTD) has adequately captured this event leading us to maintain our Neutral rating. AGP will have an equity stake of 65% in a newly formed SPV, the portfolio concentration of which lies primarily within Antibiotics (75%), Respiratory (7.5%) and imported...
- Yusra Beg
AGP Limited: 1QCY21 review – lower institutional sales this quarter
AGP has reported 1QCY21 NPAT of PKR384mn (EPS: PKR1.37), down 12% yoy and 8%qoq. The result is lower than consensus due to lower institutional sales this quarter. That said, GMs have improved to 56.3% vs. 55.3% SPLY, albeit much lower than 59.8% reported in 4QCY20. 1QCY21 RESULT HIGHLIGHTS: * AGP reported revenue of PKR1.64bn, down 7%yoy and 16%qoq. This is a sharp decline, led by lower institutional sales (Government orders) which may perhaps pick pace in the coming quarter. We expect Sputn...
- Yusra Beg
The Searle Company: 3QFY21 review: Sequential decline as margins come ...
SEARL has announced 3QFY21 NPAT of PKR664mn (EPS: PKR2.77), up 9% yoy but down a sharp 22% qoq, taking 9MFY21 NPAT to PKR2.2bn (EPS: PKR 8.98), up 25% yoy. While sales from OBS Pakistan seemingly remain on track, sequentially lower gross margins (44.9% vs. 47.6% in 2Q) dragged the bottom line, leading to an earnings miss vs. consensus estimates. SEARL has not announced any interim dividends as per expectation. Alongside results, SEARL has announced the registrations of two new USFDA verified ...
- Yusra Beg
The Searle Company: 2QFY21 – Strong revenue contribution from OBS lead...
SEARL announced 2QFY21 NPAT of PKR855mn (EPS: PKR4.03), up 51% yoy and 35%qoq, taking 1HFY21 NPAT to PKR1.5bn (EPS: PKR 7.02), up 34%yoy. The result beat our EPS estimate of PKR3.15, where the deviation stemmed from higher-than-expected revenues on amalgamation of OBS Pakistan, with GMs coming exactly in-line with our estimate of 47.6%. SEARL did not announce any interim dividend as per expectation. Alongside results SEARL has intimated plans for listing of its subsidiary – most likely Luna ...
- Yusra Beg
AGP Limited: 4QCY20 Review: Sharp rise in GMs moderated by normalising...
AGP has reported 4QCY20 NPAT of PKR418mn (EPS: PKR1.49), up 9% yoy and flat qoq, taking CY20 NPAT to PKR1.59bn (EPS: PKR 5.67), up 10%yoy. The result is lower than our estimated 4Q EPS of PKR1.70 primarily led by higher–admin expenses (up 46%qoq) – likely due to normalizing operational activities – excluding which this would be an earnings beat. Importantly, AGP’s gross margins bounced back to c. 60% in 4Q vs. expectations of 55% likely due to recovering high margin category sales. AGP has al...
- Yusra Beg
The Searle Company: 2QFY21 preview – Luna Pakistan to fully amalgamate...
The Searle Company will announce its half-yearly results tomorrow, where we estimate 2QFY21 NPAT to clock in at PKR670mn (EPS: PKR3.15), up 16%yoy and 5%qoq, taking 1HFY21 NPAT to PKR1.3bn (EPS: PKR 6.14), up 17%yoy. We expect OBS Pakistan to be fully incorporated in this quarter’s results. In addition, we expect Hospital Care division sales to maintain an upward momentum, which may offset any weakness in Mead Johnson portfolio. This, together with c. 4%qoq appreciation in the PKR is likely t...
- Yusra Beg
AGP Limited: 4QCY20 preview – Another strong set of results expected
AGP is expected to announce its full-year results tomorrow, where we estimate 4QCY20 NPAT to clock in at PKR476mn (EPS: PKR1.70), up 24% yoy and 15% qoq, taking CY20 NPAT to PKR1.65bn (EPS: PKR 5.87), up 14%yoy. We expect AGP to maintain its sales momentum following the outset of Covid-19 (up 8% qoq and 17% yoy). This, together with a c.4% PKR appreciation during the quarter should lead to a sequential recovery in GMs – particularly after the one-time provisioning of antibody testing kits dur...
- Yusra Beg
AGP Limited: Looking to acquire Novartis’ brand – Sandoz
In a notice to the PSX, AGP has disclosed that its Board has authorized it to participate with its parent company, AitkenStuart Pakistan, in an acquisition of selected products of Sandoz (a division of Novartis) through an SPV. Some of the notable brands in question include Azomax, Zatofen and Amoxi-Clav (details below), which are owned by Sandoz AG (a company organized under the laws of Switzerland). THE STATED FINANCING STRUCTURE SHOULD NOT DENT AGP’S EARNINGS MATERIALLY… The capital struct...
- Yusra Beg
The Searle Company: FY20 Analyst Briefing Takeaways
SEARL held their Analyst Briefing call today in which they discussed the company's performance and the future outlook. To recall, SEARL posted 1QFY21 NPAT of PKR636mn (EPS: PKR2.99), up 16%yoy but lower 20%qoq. Consistent revenue growth alongside strong cost control (SG&A expenses down 7%yoy) smoothened SEARL's profitability compared to high volatility last year. Results were accompanied with a rights share issuance of 13% at a price of PKR170/right in order to fund acquisition of UDL Pharmac...
- Sunny Kummar
Topline Flash Note: The Searle Company (SEARL): Corporate Briefing Not...
The Searle Company (SEARL) is the second largest pharmaceutical company in Pakistan. It is No.1 in Cardiovascular, Pain Management, Gynae and Obs and Cough Suppressant segments. The company has 4 over Rs1bn and 7 over Rs500mn brands in its portfolio. There are over 650,000 prescriptions with SEARL products prescribed by doctors every day. The company is ranked second in terms of volume with a market share of 7.04% and fourth in terms of value with a market share of 5.79%. The company has 11%...
- Yusra Beg
AGP Limited: 3QCY20 Review – Sharp sequential recovery in prescription...
AGP has posted 3QCY20 NPAT of PKR414mn (EPS: PKR1.48), up 29% yoy and qoq, taking 9MCY20 NPAT to PKR1.2bn (EPS: PKR 4.17), up 10% yoy. AGP has reported a sharp 28% sequential recovery in sales in 3Q – typically a seasonally weak quarter otherwise. This comes after disruptions faced during Covid-19 lockdowns imposed in 2Q and has helped offset relatively higher input costs (GMs 52% vs. 57% in 3QCY19). AGP has also announced an interim dividend of PKR1.0/sh. 3QCY20 KEY RESULT HIGHLIGHTS * AGP ...
- Yusra Beg
The Searle Company: 1QFY21 Review: Stable growth trajectory
SEARL posted 1QFY21 NPAT of PKR636mn (EPS: PKR2.99), up 16%yoy but lower 20%qoq. Consistent revenue growth alongside strong cost control (SG&A expenses down 7%yoy) have smoothened SEARL’s profitability vs. volatility last year. Results were accompanied by a rights share issuance of 13% at a price of PKR170/right in order to fund the acquisition of UDL Pharma’s production facility at Port Qasim at a consideration of PKR230mn. UDL Pharma is owned by First UDL Modaraba. Contrary to consensus exp...
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