reports
- ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
- Fredrik Stensved
- Markus Henriksson
- Viktor Stenlöf
JM AB: 2 directors
Two Directors at JM AB bought/maiden bought 1,550 shares at between 183.170SEK and 184.000SEK. The significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors ov...
- Simen Mortensen
Jm Ab (Sell, TP: SEK155.00) - Q1 EPS miss
Higher tax costs than forecast meant Q1 EPS missed expectations. Sales of new homes were broadly in line with our estimate – but starts were below, prompting us to cut our 2024e EPS by c19% and 2025e by c5%. However, expecting a catch-up effect, we have raised our 2026e EPS by c16%. In our view, the valuation is already pricing in a market recovery, while we still see a risk of setbacks, mainly from fewer and slower interest rate cuts, and we see a better risk/reward elsewhere in the sector. We ...
H & M Hennes & Mauritz AB: 1 director
A director at H & M Hennes & Mauritz AB bought 1,700,000 shares at 166.391SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last t...
- Simen Mortensen
Renovation rules now a reality
The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) was approved on 12 April, requiring the modernisation of existing real estate in the EU, and will soon enter the Official Journal of the EU. Member states will have two years to incorporate the provisions into their national legislation. While Q1 is Nordic construction’s low season due to winter effects, we see some downside risk to Q1e consensus and longer-term to 2024–2026e EBIT on lower development gains. We recommend a stock-picking approa...
- Simen Aas
Hennes & Mauritz (Buy, TP: SEK200.00) - 10% EBIT-margin target in its ...
A strong start to 2024, and spring sales with solid gross margins, have boosted confidence in H&M’s near-term 10% EBIT margin target. We like the store-refurbishment acceleration too, supporting our view of it returning to store growth in 2025e. We reiterate our BUY, but have raised our target price to SEK200 (180) on higher forecasts.
- Ana Arjona-Martinez
- Antonio Rodriguez Vicens
H&M : Good results on the back of outperformance from COGS
>Higher gross margin more than offsets in-line sales and higher opex… - H&M’s Q1 2024 results were ahead of our and consensus estimates (EBITDA 9.4% above consensus and 7.8% above our estimates) due to stronger tailwinds from COGS (5.8% lower than estimated) and despite in-line sales in the quarter (0.6% above consensus and 0.6% below our estimates). The better performance from COGS fed through to the rest of the P&L, obviously with a positive leverage effect, le...
- Aurore Tigerschiöld
- Aurore Tigerschiöld
- Simen Aas
Hennes & Mauritz (Buy, TP: SEK180.00) - Strong Q1
We consider this a positive report for H&M, including EBIT 53% above consensus, a reiterated 2024 EBIT margin target, and decent start to spring sales. We expect consensus 2024e adj. EBIT to come up by 5%+ on the back of the Q1 report, and believe a positive share price reaction is warranted.
- Ana Arjona-Martinez
- Antonio Rodriguez Vicens
- Ana Arjona-Martinez
- Antonio Rodriguez Vicens
- Ana Arjona-Martinez
- Antonio Rodriguez Vicens
H&M : Top line growth is key and necessary for an inflection point
>We are lowering our estimates after disappointing results in the last quarters, especially in Q4 2023, showing the challenges faced by the company… - We continue to think that H&M needs a significant change in its model in order not to lose market share, and that the results published over the last few quarters are testimony of the difficulty in achieving such transformation. The decline in sales in the last reported quarter, as well as the negative top line growth p...
- Simen Mortensen
Jm Ab (Sell, TP: SEK155.00) - Hockey-stick recovery unlikely
The share price has rallied on the peak interest rate narrative, improved consumer sentiment and short covering, but new housing sales remain weak QTD. We expect Q1 profit to miss Infront consensus on price cuts, but starts to be above (results due at 08:00 CET on 23 April). Overall, we believe the share price has run too far ahead of the recovery and profit lead times are much longer than reflected in market expectations. We reiterate our SELL, but have raised our target price to SEK155 (130).
- Patrik Ling
Oncopeptides (No_rec, TP: SEK) - Rights issue announced
Oncopeptides this morning announced plans for a cSEK300m fully guaranteed rights issue. This should not come as a surprise to the market as the company was very clear in its Q4 report that it had financial resources to last into Q2 2024. Due to DNB Markets’ role in the rights issue, we have withdrawn our target price and recommendation.
- Simen Aas
Hennes & Mauritz (Buy, TP: SEK180.00) - A good start to the spring nee...
We expect focus in the Q1 report to be on the start to spring sales and the gross margin recovery. Longer-term, we still expect a return to store growth following its entry into Brazil, and we will look for updates on this throughout 2024. We reiterate our BUY and SEK180 target price.
- Patrik Ling
Oncopeptides (Hold, TP: SEK5.50) - US not an option, focus on Europe
In line with our base-case scenario, the FDA has withdrawn the accelerated approval for Pepaxto in the US. As a result, the focus is now growth in Europe, where it has full approval. Q4 earnings were weaker than we expected, but we believe the sales trend is moving in the right direction. We reiterate our HOLD, but have lowered our target price to SEK5.5 (7).
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK44.00) - New guidance structure
Q4 sales and EBITDA missed our forecasts as strategic brands sales were soft. The 2024 guidance was also soft but in a new better structure, we believe, for revenue growth of 7–10% CER (-4% in DKK) and adj. EBITDA growth of 10–16% in CER (-9% in DKK). We also note the decision to move Lu AF82422 into phase III in MSA. We reiterate our BUY and DKK44 target price.
- Bruno Cavalier
- Jerôme Bodin
ROG ROCHE HOLDING LTD
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
ABB ABB LTD.
VIV VIVENDI SE
G ASSICURAZIONI GENERALI S.P.A.
SAN SANOFI
SOLB SOLVAY SA
HM B H&M HENNES & MAURITZ AB CLASS B
ASRNL ASR NEDERLAND NV
SKF B SKF AB CLASS B
INGA ING GROEP NV
LDO LEONARDO SPA
SHL SIEMENS HEALTHINEERS AG
DSY DASSAULT SYSTEMES SA
SHEL SHELL PLC
- Bruno Cavalier
- Jerôme Bodin
ROG ROCHE HOLDING LTD
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
ABB ABB LTD.
VIV VIVENDI SE
G ASSICURAZIONI GENERALI S.P.A.
SAN SANOFI
SOLB SOLVAY SA
HM B H&M HENNES & MAURITZ AB CLASS B
ASRNL ASR NEDERLAND NV
SKF B SKF AB CLASS B
INGA ING GROEP NV
LDO LEONARDO SPA
SHL SIEMENS HEALTHINEERS AG
SHEL SHELL PLC
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