HEADLINES: • Hungary macro: a deep downturn in the making for next year • mBank: 3Q22 - massive loss, as expected, but underlying earnings stronger than expected at the peak POSITIVE • Isbank: 3Q22 highlights - no surprises, cost control still a problem • Richter: strong 3Q on OCs, Russia/CIS and FX revaluation POSITIVE • Petkim: 3Q22 results - EBITDA weaker than expected • InPost: DHL announces launching parcel machines in Poland NEGATIVE • Erste Bank: announces planned purchase of Sberbank'...
Oil prices rose slightly in October, to USD 93.6/bbl, on reduced OPEC quotas, with the small movement indicative of the balancing worries about demand. Refining margins jumped again after three months of declines, with the WOOD benchmark reaching USD 22.1/bbl, the second highest this year. Diesel remains extremely expensive, with a crack of USD 49.9/bbl, but the improvement was due primarily to petrol. Petrochemicals margins remain weak, but there was no clear trend across product groups and som...
HEADLINES: • Bank Millennium: sees PLN 447m of FX mortgage provision charges in 3Q22E NEUTRAL • OMV Petrom: 3Q22 trading statement • Fondul Proprietatea: Finance Ministry requests local listing of Hidroelectrica NEUTRAL • InPost: CEO expects 10-15% volume growth in Polish e-commerce market in FY22E POSITIVE • Benefit Systems: reviewing options for possible action regarding investment in Calypso Fitness NEUTRAL • European Oil and Gas Monthly: September 2022
Oil prices continued to decline in September, reaching USD 90.6/bbl, from USD 97.7/bbl in August. Demand worries are once again the most significant factor, in our view. Supporting the hypothesis of weakening demand, the WOOD refining margin has fallen to USD 18.2/bbl, its lowest level since March 2022 but still USD 7.2/bbl better than the monthly average. Diesel cracks rose significantly but petrol cracks fell sharply and are now below average for the first time since January. Petrochemical mar...
HEADLINES: • Greek banks: enjoy the hawk ride (Alpha Bank, Eurobank, NBG and Piraeus Bank stay BUY) • CEE energy: EU to propose mandatory power demand cut and levy on energy companies' profits • CEZ: Czechs freeze retail power and gas tariffs as of November • Wirtualna Polska: key takeaways from call on Szallas Group acquisition NEUTRAL • CCC: PLN 0.5bn shares issued to Mr. Milek POSITIVE
HEADLINES: • Sarantis Group: the advantage of pricing power (upgraded to BUY) • Ten Square Games: 2Q22 adjusted EBITDA broadly as we expected (18% consensus miss) NEUTRAL • European energy: Europe without Russian gas • Magyar Telekom: reaches agreement with trade unions, resulting in levered expenses NEGATIVE • Orange Polska: increases price for Orange Love convergent bundle by PLN 5/month effectively POSITIVE • European oil and gas monthly: August 2022 • STS Group: 2Q22E results - 15% yoy EB...
Oil prices continued to decline in August, reaching USD 97.7/bbl, from USD 105/bbl in July. Demand worries are, once again, the most significant factor, in our view. Supporting the hypothesis of weakening demand, the WOOD refining margin has fallen to USD 18.5/bbl, the lowest level since March 2022, but still USD 7.5/bbl better than the monthly average. Diesel cracks are actually marginally better but, as the driving season winds down, petrol cracks are back to levels close to the average for th...
EME Equity Market – August 2022 Market performance – Turkey the biggest winner, in a predominantly bad month. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined 1.2% mom in EUR and 2.8% mom in USD terms. Turkey’s ISE index outperformed all other indices, adding 24.9% mom in EUR terms and 25.1% in local currency terms. Hungary’s benchmark, the BUX Index, added 1.1% mom and 0.2% mom in EUR and HUF terms, respectively. Greece’s ASE Index had a muted performance and added only 0.6% mom. All the other indices across ...
HEADLINES: • Aselsan: no defence windfall here (downgraded to HOLD) • OTE: it's all about the yield now (stays HOLD) • Hellenic Petroleum: 2Q22 results - EBITDA well above expectations • LiveChat Software: 1Q22-23 results - EBITDA up 36% yoy, 13% above our estimate POSITIVE • Banca Transilvania: strong beat in 2Q22 • MedLife: 2Q22 earnings miss on post COVID-19 earnings mix normalisation NEGATIVE • OPAP: 2Q22E preview - solid quarter, expectations for interim DPS at EUR 0.20 (due on 29 Augu...
HEADLINES: • CEE real estate: a write-down handbook - rising yields to weigh on real estate values • Wirtualna Polska: strong 2Q22, with adjusted EBITDA up 21% yoy, 4% above our estimate NEUTRAL • 4iG: intends to buy Vodafone Hungary jointly with the Hungarian State POSITIVE • Banca Transilvania: issues new shares; new price target at RON 30 • DataWalk: issues 246,940 shares for PLN 155/share NEUTRAL • Hellenic Petroleum: 2Q22E results preview (due on 25 August) • Banca Transilvania: 2Q22E re...
Oil prices finally succumbed to gravity in July, falling to USD 105/bbl, from USD 117.5/bbl in June. We believe that the market consensus is that crude supplies are sufficient and demand will soften, due to a weak macroeconomic environment. The WOOD benchmark margin slumped from last month’s record levels, to USD 21.8/bbl, which is still the second-highest monthly average. Both diesel and petrol cracks were lower, whilst remaining very high, by historic standards. Petrochemicals prices fell more...
Oil prices continue to expand, reaching USD 122.8 at the end of May and averaging USD 112/bbl during the month. Rising consumption and the loss of Russian barrels are the culprits, in our view. OPEC has agreed to increase production by more than planned previously, but this has been insufficient to make an impact. Refiners enjoyed record margins again this month, with the WOOD benchmark hitting USD 24.8/bbl, another USD 5.0/bbl increase. Until April, diesel was the driver of margins, but althoug...
HEADLINES: • Greek Oil & Gas: a cracking good market (Motor Oil Hellas and Hellenic Petroleum stay BUYs) • PKN Orlen and Grupa Lotos agree on the merger price • Romania macro: 1% tax on turnover for companies with sales above EUR 100m again in discussions • OMV Petrom: the Energy Ministry is planning to sell 0.67% of the company to former Petrom employees • Romgaz: new wells put into operation, generating 230kcm/day, or 1.7% of 2021 production NEUTRAL • Kofola: 1Q22 conference call takeaway...
We maintain our BUY ratings on Motor Oil Hellas (MOH) and Hellenic Petroleum (ELPE), with updated 12M price targets (PT) of EUR 21.3 (from EUR 17.8) and EUR 8.29 (from EUR 6.90), respectively. Surging refining margins are boosting the core businesses, while the Greek market recovery is adding to the reasons for cheer. Better cash flow should help to finance major investments in renewables, both acquired and greenfield, while regulatory changes and infrastructure investments boost the prospects f...
EME Equity Market – May 2022 Market performance – markets down mostly, as MSCI EM Europe Index declines 3.6%. The MSCI EM Europe Index fell 3.6% mom and 2.0% mom in EUR and USD terms, respectively, in May. The best-performing index was the Russian MOEX, which added 6.3% mom in EUR terms, but declined 3.7% mom in local currency. However, we note that, with the CBR ban on short selling and restrictions on international investors, as well various sanctions, this performance is not fully comparable ...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: housing affordability considerations • AmRest: 1Q22 strong, but below our expectations NEGATIVE • Conpet: generous net profit beat in 1Q22 POSITIVE • Titan Cement: 1Q22 results - solid start in volumes, but continued pressure on EBITDA margins • Hellenic Petroleum: 1Q22 results - net income boosted by inventory gains • Transelectrica: better-than-expected 1Q22 net result, on high interconnection revenues POSITIVE • MedLife: 1Q22 results in line, margins weake...
HEADLINES: • Terna Energy: strategically positioned (stays BUY) • Sava Re: slight discount, despite competitive ROE profile (stays HOLD) • mBank: big beat on bottom line, but operating profit simply solid and not as much of a surprise POSITIVE • Dogus Otomotiv: better-than-expected 1Q22 results POSITIVE • Logo Yazilim: 1Q22 results - small beat, bullish FY22E guidance reiterated POSITIVE • Graphisoft Park: stable 1Q22 results, valuation remains attractive NEUTRAL • InPost: 1Q22 beat on stronge...
In April, the gas market settled at a price of about EUR 105/MWh and showed much less volatility. The risk of cuts to Russian supply remains, but the market has absorbed this and is focusing on mitigation, in our view. Even Russia’s refusal to sell gas to Poland, was not enough to spark a big price increase. Inventory levels are helping to calm nerves, as April reached levels just 6% below the average for the month, after rising 9% in March. Demand for LNG in Asia is falling, as shown by lower J...
Just when the gas market appeared to have settled down, the invasion of Ukraine brought with it the risk that the flows of gas may cease between the world’s second-largest gas producer and its second-largest market. Although the daily data on gas flows from Gazprom have disappeared in the past two weeks, anecdotally, we hear that the gas is still flowing. Worries that gas may stop flowing was enough to push gas prices to EUR 100/MWh by the end of the month, and a reversal of the declines that we...
EME Equity Market – February 2022 Market performance – Russia’s equities bled in February due to the country’s invasion of Ukraine. The MSCI EME Europe Index declined by 38.7% in EUR terms and 38.8% in USD terms. Russian stocks, represented by the MOEX Index, lost the most in February, declining by 34.6% in EUR terms and 30.0% in RUB terms. The Hungarian BUX Index lost 21.8% in EUR terms and 18.2% in HUF terms; while the Polish WIG20 Index declined by 11.7% in EUR and 9.5% in PLN. In Prague, the...
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