EME Equity Market – November 2023 Market performance – Greeks in the lead, in a month with only green across the region. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 5.6% mom in EUR terms and 8.7% mom in USD in November. The Greek ASE Index was the top performer in our region (+6.9% mom), followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.5% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom). The Czech PX Index saw the most muted performance, advancing 2.8% mom.
HEADLINES: • Bank Pekao: 3Q23 results solid as a rock, 25%+ ROE remains, high dividend yield possible POSITIVE • BIM: strong set of results in 3Q23 financials, beating expectations POSITIVE • Richter: 3Q23 EBITDA in line; guidance raised on strong Vraylar POSITIVE • Petkim: 3Q23 results • Eurobank: 3Q23 results • National Bank: 3Q23 results • Addiko Bank: 3Q23 results - bottom-line beat POSITIVE • Transgaz: no approval from EC for EUR 500m grants for non-priority projects NEUTRAL • Auto Par...
EME Equity Market – May 2023 Market performance – in its election month and with talks of a return to investment grade starting to materialise, Greece outperformed, posting a stellar performance. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 2.3% mom in EUR terms, but lost 1.4% mom in USD in May. The Greek ASE Index saw the biggest gains (+12.3% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+6.2% mom in EUR terms) and the Turkish ISE 30 Index (+3.4% mom in EUR terms). The remaining geographies finis...
HEADLINES: • Alpha Bank: 1Q23 - a strong start to 2023 POSITIVE • Turk Telekom: 1Q23 results slightly below the consensus on EBITDA/NI • BIM: 1Q23 results - in line operationally, but bottom line misses expectations NEUTRAL • Petkim: 1Q results - net income beats forecasts • CCC: soft start to the year, with 1Q23 adjusted EBITDA down 36% yoy NEGATIVE • Auto Partner: April sales up by 36% yoy, 3ppts above our model assumption NEUTRAL • Electrica: 1Q23 operational indicators show 9% decline in ...
EME Equity Market – March 2023 Market performance – all geographies down in March. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 7.6% mom in EUR terms and 5.7% mom in USD in March. Among a sea of red, Romania’s BET saw the smallest decline (-2.6% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Czech PX Index (-5.5% mom in EUR terms). The Greek ASE and the Hungarian BUX indices saw similar declines (-7.4% and -7.5% mom ,respectively, in EUR terms), while the worst performer for the month was the Turkish ISE30, down 10.5% mo...
HEADLINES: • OMV Petrom: upside, even with the solidarity tax (stays BUY) • Bank Pekao: beat on headline 4Q22 net profit and books solid (and in line) recurrent earnings trends POSITIVE • Turkish Airlines: 4Q22 - yet another strong quarter, EBITDA 8% above the consensus POSITIVE • Hellenic Bank: FY22 results; FY23E guidance - profits could double • Petkim: 4Q22 results - weak EBITDA • 4iG: 4Q22 review - soft quarterly results, distorted by business transformation NEGATIVE • AmRest: key takea...
EME Equity Market – November 2022 Market performance – Turkey does it again, breezing past everyone else, once more, in November. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 11.6% mom in EUR terms and 16.7% mom in USD. The ISE30 index, again, boasted the best performance among our coverage, adding 18.6% mom in EUR terms and 23.9% mom in local currency (lcl) terms. Positive performances were also recorded in the WIG (+14.0% EU /13.0% lcl mom), the BUX (+12.6% EUR/12.0% lcl mom), the BET (+8.4% EUR/8.6% lcl...
HEADLINES: • Hungary macro: a deep downturn in the making for next year • mBank: 3Q22 - massive loss, as expected, but underlying earnings stronger than expected at the peak POSITIVE • Isbank: 3Q22 highlights - no surprises, cost control still a problem • Richter: strong 3Q on OCs, Russia/CIS and FX revaluation POSITIVE • Petkim: 3Q22 results - EBITDA weaker than expected • InPost: DHL announces launching parcel machines in Poland NEGATIVE • Erste Bank: announces planned purchase of Sberbank'...
HEADLINES: • Wizz Air: end-summer liquidity ahead of expectations (stays BUY) • Alkaloid AD Skopje: expansion and antibiotics drive strong earnings (stays HOLD) • TBC Bank: 3Q22 highlights - much better than expected with trading income • Romania macro: stronger than most, rates heading slightly higher than thought previously • European Oil and Gas Monthly: October 2022 • CEZ: WFT approved, price caps announced • Turkish Airlines: 3Q22 - can it get any better? POSITIVE • Erdemir: new pelle...
EME Equity Market – September 2022 Market performance – in a rough month for the markets, Turkey emerges as the top-performing region, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined 8.3% mom in EUR terms and 10.7% mom in USD in September; while the ISE index outperformed all the other indices once again, but with a muted performance this time, adding just 1.0% mom in EUR terms and 0.1% in local currency terms. All the other indices recorded negative performances, with the Czech PX Index losing 4....
HEADLINES: • Turkish oil and gas: margin calls (Tupras stays BUY, Petkim downgraded to HOLD) • Hungary macro: MPC raises the policy rate to 13.00% and signals a shift of focus • mBank: to book PLN 2.3bn in FX mortgage litigation risk provisions in 3Q22E NEUTRAL • Echo: 2Q22 results - strong margin on apartments handed over, low overheads, small revaluation loss POSITIVE • Grupa Pracuj: key takeaways from the 2Q22 earnings call POSITIVE • Kofola: key takeaways from the Seznam Zprav interview wi...
We have downgraded Petkim from a BUY to a HOLD, with an updated 12M price target (PT) of TRY 13.8 (from TRY 5.49), while we maintain our BUY recommendation on Tupras, with an updated 12M price target (PT) of TRY 380.3 (from TRY 191.9). Tupras is benefiting from high refining margins, and is reducing its debt levels and replenishing reserves, opening the way for a return of dividends in 2023E (from the 2022E earnings). Petkim, however, is seeing margins under pressure and is likely to pay the las...
EME Equity Market – August 2022 Market performance – Turkey the biggest winner, in a predominantly bad month. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined 1.2% mom in EUR and 2.8% mom in USD terms. Turkey’s ISE index outperformed all other indices, adding 24.9% mom in EUR terms and 25.1% in local currency terms. Hungary’s benchmark, the BUX Index, added 1.1% mom and 0.2% mom in EUR and HUF terms, respectively. Greece’s ASE Index had a muted performance and added only 0.6% mom. All the other indices across ...
HEADLINES: • Ilirija d.d.: stronger prices drive upgrade (upgraded to BUY) • OTP Bank: 2Q22 - quite solid and promising, if not for recession and credit risk outlook for 2022E NEUTRAL • Turkish Airlines: 2Q22 - strong results, high cargo yields remain a key driver, beat on pricing POSITIVE • Petkim: 2Q22 results - big net income beat • Brisa: 2Q22 - earnings miss on input cost pressure NEGATIVE • Anadolu Efes: strong beat in the 2Q22 results POSITIVE • GTC: buys a minority stake in a project ...
HEADLINES: • Zagreb Stock Exchange: remains BUY, following the share price dip (stays BUY) • NLB Banka: solid performance ytd, but price remains high (stays SELL) • Isbank: 2Q22 highlights - good revenue performance, COR guidance more positive vs. peers • CEZ: 2Q22 results - large EBITDA miss, due to hedging revaluations, FY guidance hiked • PKO BP: may lose another CEO in less than two years, launches EMTN programme up to EUR 4bn NEGATIVE • Allegro: accusations of abuse of dominant position...
In April, the gas market settled at a price of about EUR 105/MWh and showed much less volatility. The risk of cuts to Russian supply remains, but the market has absorbed this and is focusing on mitigation, in our view. Even Russia’s refusal to sell gas to Poland, was not enough to spark a big price increase. Inventory levels are helping to calm nerves, as April reached levels just 6% below the average for the month, after rising 9% in March. Demand for LNG in Asia is falling, as shown by lower J...
HEADLINES: • Kofola: a good drink, but for another time (HOLD - re-initiation of coverage) • Komercni Banka: solid 1Q22, strong ground for 2022E delivery NEUTRAL • BRD-GSG: 1Q22 - good start to 2022 • Shoper: preliminary 1Q22 sales up by a strong 67% yoy, but material margin dilution NEUTRAL • CCC: 1Q22 prelims ahead of expectations, but leverage remains excessive POSITIVE • Vestel Beyaz: 1Q22 results - better-than-expected bottom line POSITIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: US - Fed reinforces hawkish...
Just when the gas market appeared to have settled down, the invasion of Ukraine brought with it the risk that the flows of gas may cease between the world’s second-largest gas producer and its second-largest market. Although the daily data on gas flows from Gazprom have disappeared in the past two weeks, anecdotally, we hear that the gas is still flowing. Worries that gas may stop flowing was enough to push gas prices to EUR 100/MWh by the end of the month, and a reversal of the declines that we...
EME Equity Market – February 2022 Market performance – Russia’s equities bled in February due to the country’s invasion of Ukraine. The MSCI EME Europe Index declined by 38.7% in EUR terms and 38.8% in USD terms. Russian stocks, represented by the MOEX Index, lost the most in February, declining by 34.6% in EUR terms and 30.0% in RUB terms. The Hungarian BUX Index lost 21.8% in EUR terms and 18.2% in HUF terms; while the Polish WIG20 Index declined by 11.7% in EUR and 9.5% in PLN. In Prague, the...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: forecasts guidance update • Erste Bank: very solid 4Q21, issues optimistic 2022E guidance and recommends 2021 DPS of EUR 1.6 • LiveChat Software: 3Q21-22 (calendar 4Q21) results - EBITDA up 15% yoy, 6% below the consensus NEGATIVE • Electrica: 4Q21 results review - deep losses reported NEGATIVE • Bittnet Systems: 4Q21 results review - 71% yoy EBITDA drop, 81% below our estimate NEGATIVE • AD Plastik: 4Q21 review - weaker than expected, and outlook uncertain NEG...
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