EME Equity Market – April 2024 Market performance – green across all geographies, with Turkey outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index was up 5.3% mom in EUR terms and 4.2% mom in USD in April; while the Turkish ISE30 saw the strongest performance, adding 11.6% mom; followed by the Hungarian BUX (+5.0% mom); the Czech PX (+2.8% mom); the Greek ASE (+1.8% mom), the Polish WIG20 (+1.2% mom) and the Romanian BET (+0.1% mom) (all in EUR terms).
HEADLINES: • Kaspi.kz: 1Q24 highlights Kruk: buys more portfolios in Italy • Tupras: launches USD 256m propylene investment NEUTRAL • Turkish banks: coverage UNDER REVIEW • Sipchem: 1Q24E results preview (due on 25 April) NEUTRAL • Jeronimo Martins: 1Q24E results preview – 11% yoy EBITDA growth expected (due on 26 April, before the open) • Erste Bank: 1Q24E preview (due on 30 April) • BRD-GSG: 1Q24E preview (due on 2 May) NEUTRAL • PKO BP: 1Q24E preview (due on 9 May) • Banca Transilvania: 1Q24E...
EME Equity Market – March 2024 Market performance – mixed performances in March, with the Romanian BET outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 0.4% mom in USD in March. The Romanian BET reported the strongest performance, adding 7.1% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Czech PX and the Polish WIG20 (+4.1% and 1.0% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). Greece saw a relatively muted performance (-0.2% mom in EUR terms), while Hungary (-1.1% mom in EUR terms) and Tür...
HEADLINES: • OMV: Chemical Brothers (stays BUY) • Pegasus Airlines: 4Q23 – decent end to another stellar year NEUTRAL • Tupras: FY23 results, using inflation accounting POSITIVE • AROBS Transilvania Software: FY23 results – awaiting the calming of IT spending headwinds NEUTRAL • Sipchem: 4Q23 interim results NEGATIVE • Telecom Egypt: key takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Tofas: proposes distribution of a DPS of TRY 20 NEUTRAL • 11 bit studios: strong player reviews of The Thaumatur...
EME Equity Market – January 2024 Market performance – Turkey off to the races in January. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in the first month of the year. There was a V-shape recovery in the Turkish ISE30, with the index adding 12.6% mom in EUR terms. The Greek ASE and Hungarian BUX indices also reported strong performances, adding 5.7% and 5.3% mom, respectively, in EUR terms. The Czech PX Index advanced by 2.2% mom, while the Romanian BET 0.9% mom in EUR...
HEADLINES: • European oil & gas: parting from the Red Sea • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (8-14 January) • Kazatomprom: expects 2024E production to miss guidance targets NEUTRAL • Fondul Proprietatea: end-December 2023 NAV per share up 4% mom NEUTRAL • Grupa Pracuj: new job ads on Pracuj.pl reach 390,000 in 2H23, down 14% vs. 1H23 NEGATIVE • Bank Millennium: 4Q23E preview (due on 30 January) • Santander Bank Polska: 4Q23E preview (due on 31 January) • ING BSK: 4Q23E preview (due on 1 ...
Attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, by the Houthis from Yemen, have complicated the supply chains for Europe, and none more so than the supply of crude oil and oil products. The expropriation of a cargo belonging to Tupras on 11 January was a timely reminder of the risks. The shortage of heavy crude oils could get marginally worse, as cargos need to be rerouted around the long way. The lack of crude oil from Northern Iraq via the Kirkuk pipeline is exacerbating the problem c...
HEADLINES: • Jeronimo Martins: 4Q23 trading statement slightly below our expectations NEGATIVE • Budimex: 4Q23 preliminary EBIT at PLN 295m, more than double our initial model assumption POSITIVE • Tupras: crude oil cargo expropriated by Iran NEUTRAL • Grupa Pracuj: new online job ads down 27% yoy in December 2023 NEGATIVE • Short News (HUG, WPL)
HEADLINES: • Warsaw Stock Exchange: the tide is turning (upgraded to BUY) • Coca-Cola Icecek: announces 4Q23 trading update and 2024E guidance NEUTRAL • Tupras: major maintenance NEGATIVE • Ten Square Games: 4Q23 bookings down 2% qoq, 3% below our forecast NEGATIVE • Auto Partner: December sales growth decelerates materially, to 14% yoy, slightly below our expectations NEGATIVE • Benefit Systems: 1,919k active sports cards at end-2023 NEUTRAL • Polish telecoms: mobile number portability in...
EME Equity Market – November 2023 Market performance – Greeks in the lead, in a month with only green across the region. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 5.6% mom in EUR terms and 8.7% mom in USD in November. The Greek ASE Index was the top performer in our region (+6.9% mom), followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.5% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom). The Czech PX Index saw the most muted performance, advancing 2.8% mom.
HEADLINES: • Bank Pekao: 3Q23 results solid as a rock, 25%+ ROE remains, high dividend yield possible POSITIVE • BIM: strong set of results in 3Q23 financials, beating expectations POSITIVE • Richter: 3Q23 EBITDA in line; guidance raised on strong Vraylar POSITIVE • Petkim: 3Q23 results • Eurobank: 3Q23 results • National Bank: 3Q23 results • Addiko Bank: 3Q23 results - bottom-line beat POSITIVE • Transgaz: no approval from EC for EUR 500m grants for non-priority projects NEUTRAL • Auto Par...
EME Equity Market – October 2023 Market performance – election results prompt stellar market reaction in Poland; sell-off in Turkey. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 1.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.0% mom in USD in October. Poland staged a massive rebound, post the elections, with the WIG20 advancing 16.4% mom in EUR terms. Apart from Turkey, where October was a sell-off, with the ISE30 declining 13.7% mom in EUR terms, there were relatively muted performances everywhere else (BUX +2.1% / PX +0.4% / B...
HEADLINES: • Alior Bank: strong beat on headline profit as LLPs keep giving low readings POSITIVE • MONETA Money Bank: strong 3Q23 results, but medium-term outlook broadly unchanged NEUTRAL • Tupras: 3Q23 results - EBITDA better than expected • Ford Otosan: strong beat in 3Q23 financials POSITIVE • Tofas: better-than-expected results in 3Q23 POSITIVE • Shoper: 3Q23 adjusted EBITDA up 32% yoy, as expected NEUTRAL • Romgaz: 3Q23 trading update • Electrica: 3Q23 operational indicators NEUTRAL • M...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (16-22 October) • Kalekim: 3Q23 - strong set of results, but failed to meet expectations NEGATIVE • Arcelik: 3Q23 results - in line NEUTRAL • Enea: sees PLN 264m maximum impact from cut in retail tariff NEUTRAL • Banca Transilvania: ICCJ rejects revision of Volksbank case • TeraPlast: 3Q23E earnings preview (due out tomorrow) • Ford Otosan: 3Q23E earnings preview (due on 25 October) • Tofas: 3Q23E earnings preview (due on 25 October) • Tupra...
Raising 12-month TP to TL172/share; downgrade to Hold: We have incorporated an updated macro deck and revised various assumptions regarding Tupras. Accordingly, we have raised our 12-month TP by 37%, to TL172/share. We downgrade our rating to Hold, given the relatively limited upside potential on our numbers. We continue to value Tupras via blended FY23E/FY24E P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples. We believe that Tupras’ near-term operating outlook could offer support to the shares in the S/T given the r...
EME Equity Market – August 2023 Market performance – Turkey the top performer in August, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in August. Turkey, yet again, outperformed its peers, with the ISE30 gaining 9.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX index saw a solid performance in August, adding 6.1% mom in EUR terms, while the Romanian BET had a lacklustre month, barely making any gains (0.1% mom in EUR terms). Elsewhere, the index performances were neg...
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