Self Storage Group ASA (Hold, TP: NOK30.00) - Occupancy beat, but lowe...

Self Storage Group (SSG) reported an impressive 89.2% occupancy rate for Q2, but a sign-on discount for new clients and market prices led to lower-than-expected rents. Thus, despite the occupancy beat, Q2 revenues were in line with our forecast. Reported EPS missed our forecast by 20%, but adjusted (excluding transaction costs and currency effects) saw a 10% EPS beat. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK30 target price.

Self Storage Group ASA (Hold, TP: NOK29.00) - Catch-up needed

Self Storage Group seems to be sticking to its asset-by-asset strategy, with double-digit 2022–2023 EPS growth still likely in our view. However, we believe investors would like to see a ‘catch-up’ in the fundamentals, i.e. growth in mini-storage sites. That said, given the recent mini-rally, we have downgraded to HOLD (BUY) and raised our target price to NOK29 (27).

Self Storage Group ASA (Buy, TP: NOK27.00) - Growth set to continue

Self Storage Group (SSG) reported its highest ever revenues in Q4, though 5% below our forecast, as the CLA (current lettable area) and rents were lower than we expected. However, with 12,000–14,000sqm in CLA guided to open in 2021, we consider growth likely to continue near-term. As the development pipeline growth stretches well into 2022e, this supports our view of SSG as a long-term growth case. We reiterate our BUY and NOK27 target price.

Northern Lights

Self Storage Group ASA (Buy, TP: NOK27.00) - Growing, asset by asset

Self Storage Group (SSG) appears to have found its pre-Covid-19 momentum again, buying another five small assets in Q4 for a combined NOK85m, and a NOK250m acquisition already announced in 2021. We forecast a 15% YOY increase in EPS in Q4, and our focus in the report will be on growth and future expansion (results due at 08:00 CET on 16 February). We reiterate our BUY and NOK27 target price.

Northern Lights

Self Storage Group ASA (Buy, TP: NOK27.00) - Supportive Q3 and guidanc...

SSG reported Q3 revenues, EBIT and KPIs broadly in line with our forecasts, and its raised guidance of opening 12,000–14,000sqm of lettable area in 2021, up from 10,000sqm, also supported our 2021 forecasts. However, it beat our Q3 EPS estimate on lower financing costs, and as we have trimmed our funding costs forecast, we have lifted our 2020–2022e EPS. We retain our BUY and NOK27 target price.

Beat in the most important quarter

Self Storage Group ASA (Buy, TP: NOK27.00) - Volume records raise our ...

The Norwegian economy has performed better than we expected at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, and stronger fundamentals and record-breaking transaction volumes in the housing market have led us to raise our occupancy-rate and EPS forecasts for SSG. The Q3 results are due at c07:30 CET on 3 November, and apart from some reduced prices (short-term rent discounts for new tenants in a marketing campaign), we expect no Covid-19 effects. We have upgraded to BUY, and raised our target price to NOK...

Northern Lights

Self Storage Group ASA (Hold, TP: NOK25.00) - Q2 in line; review wrapp...

Q2 EBIT was in line with our forecast, and KPIs were broadly in line (a higher occupancy rate was the strongest data point). The board has wrapped up the strategic review after concluding the best option for shareholders was for the company to continue trading as a standalone business. We see downside risk to consensus, and with the stock still trading at a premium to peer multiples, we reiterate our HOLD and NOK25 target price, despite what we view as an attractive investment case.

Self Storage Group ASA (Hold, TP: NOK25.00) - Q2 and 2020 estimates cu...

We have cut our Q2e revenues following Covid-19-, leading us to lower our 2020e adj. EPS (the Q2 results are due at c07:00 CET on 18 August). We believe the main potential share-price catalyst would be a takeover bid following the (ongoing) strategic review, announced in January. As this is our base case, we reiterate our HOLD and NOK25 target price.

Northern Lights

Self Storage Group ASA (Hold, TP: NOK25.00) - Rent miss in Q1

The company’s average rental rate dropped by 3% QOQ, and fell 5.1% short of our forecast, as we had assumed an annual CPI adjustment. The occupancy rate also fell QOQ, from 83% to 82%. The weaker than expected KPIs appear to stem from the Eurobox acquisition. Underlying rent per sqm increased by 0.5% YOY, less than CPI. The company did not comment on the ongoing strategic review. We have cut our forecasts following the results, due to generally weaker KPIs, but reiterate our HOLD and NOK25 tar...

Northern Lights

Self Storage Group ASA (Hold, TP: NOK25.00) - Longer-term symptoms

While we do not expect the Covid-19 lockdown to affect the Q1 results (due at 08:00 CET on 8 May), we fear the pandemic and the oil price fall will lead to lower economic growth in Norway, and have reduced our market rent and occupancy rate forecasts for SSG. The strategic review does not appear to have been concluded, thus there is still potential for a sale of the company, albeit weaker given recent events, in our view. We reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to NOK25 (30).

Northern Lights

Self Storage Group ASA (Hold, TP: NOK30.00) - Looking for potential su...

Q4 revenues missed our forecast on a lower occupancy rate than expected, while EBIT missed on higher depreciation. As a result, we have cut our 2020–2022e EPS by an average of 11.6%. However, on 31 January management announced a strategic review that would explore all options to maximise shareholder value, including talks with potential suitors; we believe this has made the investment case event-driven short-term. As a result, and despite a rich valuation, we have upgraded Self Storage Group t...

Northern Lights

Self Storage Group ASA (Sell, TP: NOK26.00) - Too-high assumptions

While we continue to expect earnings growth for SSG, the recent share price run has sent the stock up too high, in our view. The valuation looks stretched and our Q4e imply downside risk to consensus Q4 EBIT. We have raised our target price to NOK26 (25) on our updated forecasts and peer valuations, and downgraded to SELL (BUY) on the recent share price rally.