Our portfolio of Top Picks has started 2026 strongly, up 6% ytd already. This month we make no changes to our top picks. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space.
In this note, we update our model and thoughts following the Q4 results (HERE) incorporating conference call feedback, feedback following meeting the CEO/CFO, and compare our new estimates to guidance and consensus. We have trimmed EBITDA slightly for 26/27, but have lifted OpFCF due to the good CapEx discipline.
Tele2 has reported a confusing set of results with lots of mixed messages. On the one hand, Q4 results were good, but 2026 EBITDAaL guidance is a but disappointing and at odds with current growth rates and looks beatable given likely Q1 growth rates.
Tower revenue trends were slightly slower across the board except for Indus Towers as it benefited again from VIL’s network catch up spend. EBITDA margins were roughly stable across EM except in Indonesia which faces the near-term pressure of the XL-Smartfren consolidation. Africa continue to perform well and the LatAm Towers space had a decent Q3.
Aedifica and Cofinimmo: Belgian Competition Authority approves the deal / AEGON: Sale of UK picking up early momentum / Allfunds Group PLC: Of Bourse they agreed / Ontex: Peer Essity 4Q25 results / Telecoms: Digital Networks Act take-aways / WDP: Catena to raise c.€255m via an ABB with WDP participating pro-rata for c.€26m
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