Q4 softness, value emerging

Q4: competitive pressure persists

Tele2 (Buy, TP: SEK 170, +7%) Post Q4 25 model update

In this note, we update our model and thoughts following the Q4 results (HERE) incorporating conference call feedback, feedback following meeting the CEO/CFO, and compare our new estimates to guidance and consensus. We have trimmed EBITDA slightly for 26/27, but have lifted OpFCF due to the good CapEx discipline.

Execution delivers, cash returns drive upside

Tele2 (Buy, TP: SEK 170, +7%) Q4 25: A lot of mixed messaging

Tele2 has reported a confusing set of results with lots of mixed messages. On the one hand, Q4 results were good, but 2026 EBITDAaL guidance is a but disappointing and at odds with current growth rates and looks beatable given likely Q1 growth rates.

Strong Q4, guidance looks conservative

Growth slows, investment case intact

From execution story to shareholder returns

European Telecoms for 2026 Industry action required for further outpe...

Over the past 3 years, the EU telecoms sector has had a great run – up >50%, despite modest underlying revenue/ EBITDA growth. This has almost entirely come from a deserved upwards re-rating in the multiple as the risk profile across the sector diminishes – which has been a key theme of ours in the past few years given improved regulation. So, we feel this has now largely played out.

Vodafone (Buy, 120p, +26%) Safaricom buyout: More FCF accretive than ...

Vodafone and Vodacom have announced today that they will be taking control of Safaricom. Given the structure of the deal with Kenyan Government involving pre-paying dividends, we think the deal could offer better than expected accretion to Vodafone’s reported FCF for limited capital outflow.

Vodafone (Buy, 120p, +30%) H1 26 - Multiple re-rating in play

Vodafone has reported a decent set of H1 results and guidance has been moved to the upper-end of the guidance range (albeit us and consensus were already there). We think there is still a story for the multiple to be re-rated further – and even though there is new dividend guidance today, we also think there is potential for incremental cash return to come at the FY results.

Elisa Oyj: 1 director

A director at Elisa Oyj maiden bought 2,500 shares at 38.225EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 60/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clear...

Quality at a discount

Weaker MSR growth on higher churn

Still delivering, but the easy gains are behind us

Tele2 (Neutral, TP: SEK 149, -4%) Q3 25: An EBITDA miss, but OpFCF bea...

Tele2 has reported a slightly mixed set of results: SR is ahead (+0.5%), so too EFCF (19% ahead), and OpFCF (by c9%), but EBITDAaL has missed consensus by -1.6%.

Q3 earnings slightly below expectations

Strong execution justifies higher premium

Efficiency delivers, but upside capped

Why you should be reading the Tariff Tracker – a leading SR indicator

We publish monthly front book pricing data in our Tariff Tracker product. In this report we show some new analysis looking at how front book tariffs are a good leading indicator for service revenue trends in mobile and fixed, including new work looking at discounted and undiscounted prices.