Fear over PGT-A lawsuit overdone

Vitrolife (Buy, TP: SEK255.00) - Growth and margins in focus

We expect market focus on growth (especially within Genomics) and margins. Vitrolife indicated an increase in the sales organisation, and we believe there could be costs associated with the class action suits related to PGT-A in the US. There is a risk the PGT-A turbulence could result in a slow recovery in Genomics growth, although the company said there has been no visible impact on PGT-A demand so far. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to SEK255 (265).

Executive order to improve IVF access

Vitrolife (Buy, TP: SEK265.00) - Strong Q4 earnings

Q4 earnings were stronger than expected. Sales were in line with our estimate and consensus (c1% above), while adj. EBITDA was c5% higher, driven by a stronger-than-expected gross margin (61.1% versus our 58.4% estimate). Vitrolife is set to exit some markets in 2025 that would hit sales and profitability. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to SEK265 (270).

Confirming our case with a strong end to '24

Strong Q4 driven by sales and gross margin

Making the dream come true

Terminating coverage

Vitrolife (Buy, TP: SEK270.00) - A decent end to the year

We believe Vitrolife will end the year with decent growth and healthy cash flow, even though we expect softer earnings than consensus (in line on revenues and c2% below on adj. EBITDA). Growth for Consumables should remain in the low double-digits, while Technologies has tough comparables after a strong Q4 2023. We forecast organic growth in the low- to mid-single digits and reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to SEK270 (280).

On the right track

Mixed results in Q3

Improved sales growth in Q3e

Vitrolife (Buy, TP: SEK280.00) - Underlying trends set to continue

Vitrolife stock has recovered nicely since its Q2 report (up c33% since the day before the report). We believe most of the Q2 trends that triggered the revaluation of Vitrolife remain, heading into the Q3 results. For the quarter, we are c1% below consensus on sales and c4% below on adj. EBITDA. We have increased our forecasts from 2025 and our target price to SEK280 (250). We reiterate our BUY.

Technology business shines in Q2

Higher sales and gross margin in Q2. EBITDA revised up 2.2%-3.3% for '24e-'26e. Valuation below historical multiples, but above sector peers.

Vitrolife (Buy, TP: SEK250.00) - Solid beat in Q2

A 3% beat in sales versus consensus was led by Technologies, while a stronger group gross margin (c270bp above our forecast and consensus) fuelled the 10% adj. EBITDA outperformance. Following the results, we have raised our 2024–2026e EPS by 8–10% and our target price to SEK250 (210); we reiterate our BUY.

Earnings beat on higher sales and gross margin

Still waiting for growth to return in Genetics

Q2'24 results due 17 July. We expect flat organic sales growth but improving margins in Q2. EBITDA '24e-'26e down +1.0-1.5%.

Vitrolife (Buy, TP: SEK210.00) - Market will likely focus on Genetics

We believe the market will continue to focus on trends in Genetics, as this segment has the most challenges. It will likely be hit by lower sales of kits (in line with consensus). However, the underlying advances in Genetics show some signs of stabilisation. Our impression is that Consumables and Technologies continue to grow as expected. We reiterate our BUY and SEK210 target price.

Vitrolife (Buy, TP: SEK210.00) - Soft start to the year

Q1 earnings were softer than expected, with sales and adj. EBITDA c3% below consensus, despite the downward revisions to consensus ahead of the results. Genetics was positively affected by stocking effects in H1 2023, making for challenging comparables in Q2 as well. However, we see potential for a turnaround in Genetics in Q3. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to SEK210 (230) on revised forecasts.

Vitrolife (Buy, TP: SEK230.00) - Set for a soft start to 2024

We expect Vitrolife to report a relatively soft start to 2024 (Q1 results due at 08:00 CET on 18 April). We believe Consumables and Technology continued to perform well, but that the turnaround in Genetic Services failed to materialise (with tough comparables due to the loss of some US contracts in the US late in Q1 as well as strong sales of genetic kits in Q1–Q2 last year due to stocking, which we expect to normalise this year). We are in line with consensus on 2024e adj. EBITDA but just below...