China’s internet companies reported intact 2Q25 top-line with mixed earnings results. The key focuses are on the latest quick commerce war and AI cloud and agent development. In 2Q25, we saw meaningful AI monetisation visibility contributing to incremental top-line growth, and expect this momentum to continue into 2H25. On the profitability front, margins will remain under pressure from heightened investments to fend off the intensifying competition in on-demand delivery. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
JD’s 2Q25 results came in above expectations. Revenue increased 22% yoy to Rmb356.7b, 6% above our and consensus estimates. Non-GAAP operating profit slumped 90% yoy to Rmb1.1b, translating to a non-GAAP operating margin of 0.3%. Non-GAAP net profit was down 49% yoy to Rmb7.4b. Adjusted net margin shrank 3ppt yoy to 2%. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$166.00 (US$42.00).
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Automobile China’s PEV yoy sales growth turned negative (at -0.5%) during the week. BYD and Li Auto posted a yoy sales decline. We expect EV sales to recover from September with the launch of new models and interest subsidies for auto loans. Lithium carbonate prices rebounded to >Rmb80,000/tonne due to better supply discipline. We upgrade Ganfeng Lithium from HOLD to BUY thanks to lithium price recovery. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. Results ...
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: Yoy growth of China’s PEV sales turns negative; lithium price recovers. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. Results Geely Auto (175 HK/BUY/HK$18.95/Target: HK$42.00) 2Q25: Core earnings surge 93% yoy, in line; raise target price to HK$42.00. Maintain BUY. Hysan Development (14 HK/BUY/HK$15.67/Target: HK$17.84) ...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Automobile: Weekly: PV sales down 30% wow as promotions end. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. Update JD.com (9618 HK/BUY/HK$123.60/Target: HK$158.00): 2Q25 preview: Intact top-line growth; expecting margin erosion on FD investment. TRADERS’ CORNER Longfor Group Holdings Limited (960 HK): Trading Buy range: HK$10.24-10.38 China Tobacco International (HK) Company Limited (6055 HK): Trading Buy range: HK$32.70-32.90
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile: Weekly: PV sales down 30% wow as promotions end. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. Update JD.com (9618 HK/BUY/HK$123.60/Target: HK$158.00): 2Q25 preview: Intact top-line growth; expecting margin erosion on FD investment. INDONESIA Update Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ/BUY/Rp4,720/Target: Rp6,000): We expect 2Q25 results to remain strong; double-digit guidance remains intact. MALAYSIA Sector Plantation: Inventory continues t...
JD’s 2Q25 top-line guidance remains unchanged at double-digit growth, in line with 1Q25 revenue growth of 15.8% yoy, slightly better than our expectations. JD expects an FD loss of Rmb10b in 2Q25 and investment to further ramp up in 3Q25 due to the peak season and intense competition. Given the solid growth in the core commerce business, the company remains confident about achieving double-digit top-line growth in 2025. Maintain BUY with a lower target price of HK$158.00 (US$40.00).
The national subsidies programme continued to reinforce the consumption trend of “value-based substitution” during the 618 festival. While the share of online vs offline spending remained stable, emerging channels are creating new growth opportunities. We believe the consumption momentum will be shaped by: a) impact from the temporary suspension of the national subsidies programme in five provinces, and b) changes in the food delivery competitive landscape. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
GREATER CHINA Sector Healthcare Entering a new phase of accelerated growth. Upgrade to OVERWEIGHT. Internet 618 Festival – Evolving consumer trends and continued focus on value for money. Small/Mid Cap Highlights JBM Healthcare (2161 HK/BUY/HK$2.85/Target: HK$3.31) Takeaways from luncheon. INDONESIA Update Kalbe Farma (KL...
Market concerns persist over the viability of JD’s entry into the food delivery space and the implications of the increasingly competitive landscape. In response to the heightened rivalry, food delivery companies have ramped up their investment, weighing on near-term profitability. By leveraging high-frequency food delivery scenarios to channel traffic toward e-commerce categories, JD and Alibaba have effectively enhanced conversion efficiency during the 618 campaign. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
JD’s 1Q25 results came in above expectations. Revenue increased 16% yoy to Rmb301b, 3-4% above our and consensus estimates, in line with its previously guided double-digit growth. Non-GAAP operating profit rose 31% yoy to Rmb11.7b, translating to a non-GAAP operating profit margin of 3.9%. Non-GAAP net profit grew 43% yoy to Rmb12.8b. Adjusted net margin jumped 1ppt yoy to 4%. Maintain BUY with a lower target price of HK$185.00 (US$49.00).
GREATER CHINA Results JD.com (9618 HK/BUY/HK$137.00/Target: HK$185.00): 1Q25: Strong earnings beat; intact 2025 outlook; vague visibility on food delivery. JD Logistics, Inc (2618 HK/BUY/HK$12.24/Target: HK$22.00): 2024: Results broadly in line; revenue growth to accelerate in 2025. Maintain BUY. Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK/BUY/HK$54.50/Target: HK$68.00): 1Q25: Solid earnings beat; encouraging margin outlook in 2025. INDONESIA Update Trimegah Bangun Persada (NCKL IJ/BUY/Rp670/Tar...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results JD.com (9618 HK/BUY/HK$137.00/Target: HK$185.00) JD’s 1Q25 results came in above expectations. Revenue increased 16% yoy to Rmb301b, 3-4% above our and consensus estimates, in line with its previously guided double-digit growth. Non-GAAP operating profit rose 31% yoy to Rmb11.7b, translating to a non-GAAP operating profit margin of 3.9%. Non-GAAP net profit grew 43% yoy to Rmb12.8b. Adjusted net margin jumped 1ppt yoy to 4%. Maintain BUY with a lower target price of HK$1...
GREATER CHINA Economics Inflation Deflationary pressures remain. Sector Automobile Weekly: Direct impacts from US tariffs contained; indirect spillovers uncertain. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: BYD, Geely and Desay SV. Update Anta Sports (2020 HK/BUY/HK$81.55/Target: HK$108.80) 1Q25 sales me...
JD’s 1Q25 top-line growth and earnings guidance remained unchanged at doubledigit growth, slightly better than our expectations. JD also saw strong user growth and GMV growth in 1Q25 as it is well positioned to capture the continuation of the trade-in programme. JD highlighted its minimal revenue exposure to the US, implying limited impact from the US tariffs. Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of HK$220.00 (US$60.00).
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics Inflation March CPI fell 0.1% yoy, up from February’s 0.7% yoy dip as the latter was affected by the Chinese New Year effect. Core CPI did edge higher to 0.5% yoy compared with the average pace of 0.3% yoy over the past three months, driven by higher services inflation. PPI deflation worsened to -2.5% yoy (-0.3ppt), with declines seen in mining and quarrying as well as other raw materials. We opine that the overall pricing power of manufacturers remains weak. Sector ...
Chinese internet companies’ share prices have dropped 10-30% mtd following the implementation of incremental tariffs from the US. Chinese internet companies have limited business exposure to the US except for PDD’s Temu. However, the 34% tariffs announced by China on all US imports could have potential implications for China mega-caps’ AI capex in relation to US chip imports. We prefer domestic-focused plays which stand to benefit from domestic policy stimuli, with Southbound inflow to be a key ...
GREATER CHINA Sector Internet Navigating headwinds and uncovering opportunities upon tariff pressures. INDONESIA Update Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ/BUY/Rp348/Target: Rp480) Iphone 16 series to be available in 2Q25. Maintain BUY. MALAYSIA Update Matrix Concepts Holdings (MCH MK/BUY/RM1.27/Target: RM1.66) We view the RPT deal as fair and strategic as the acquisition allows Matrix to see faster ro...
JD’s 4Q24 results came in above expectations. Revenue increased 13% yoy to Rmb347b, 4% above our and consensus estimates, outperforming the previously lifted guidance of 9% yoy. Non-GAAP operating profit rose 34% yoy to Rmb10.5b, translating to a non-GAAP operating profit margin of 3%. Non-GAAP net profit grew 34% yoy to Rmb11.3b. Adjusted net margin jumped 1ppt yoy to 3%. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$220.00 (US$60.00).
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Automobile China auto sales rebounded in the ninth week of 2025, with a 53.8% PEV market share. BYD plans to issue 118m H-shares to raise around US$5.6b, aiming at funding the construction of overseas plants. Geely’s AI Technology Launch event introduced the "Qianli Haohan" intelligent driving system featuring a five-tier framework. With regard to US tariffs on Mexico and China, direct impacts on Chinese automakers are limited. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, Fuy...
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