Nous réitérons notre recommandation Surperformance (conviction Midcap Europe) avec un objectif de cours et des prévisions de résultats relevés. L’optimisme est de rigueur sur les perspectives d’activité, les marges offrent encore un potentiel d’amélioration, le bilan est sous-leveragé, les multiples de valorisation restent attractifs et le fondateur achète des actions. - ...
We reiterate our Outperform recommendation on the stock (European midcap top pick). We have revised up our target price and earnings forecasts. Bright prospects ahead for revenues, still room for margin improvement, the balance sheet is underleveraged, valuation multiples remain attractive and the founder is buying shares. - ...
>Alfen Boards and Boudewijn Tans decide to withdraw nomination as CFO - On the evening before the AGM, Alfen has issued a press releases indicating that “After careful and constructive consideration, the Alfen Supervisory and Management Boards and Boudewijn Tans have mutually decided to withdraw his nomination as Chief Financial Officer from the Annual General Meeting agenda on 9 April 2024.”Fit was not as expected. Boudewijn Tans started with a handover period i...
Last week, Alfen announced it is currently working closely with Liander, one of the three leading Dutch DSOs, to manage low but abnormal levels of moisture discovered in several recently delivered medium voltage substation transformers. Whereas there are no safety risks, and maintenance can be perf
>Alfen expects to resume production in the coming days - Alfen and client grid operator Liander have issued a joined press release indicating that in recent months, some low levels of moisture have been discovered in a number of Alfen’s Pacto medium voltage transformer substations that were delivered to Liander. Liander uses these substations to connect homes and businesses to the grid. No safety risks. “Both companies take this issue very seriously. There a...
Liander issued a press release stating product liability issues (moisture) with Alfen's Pacto substationsFirst reports came in 2023, with investigation of Liander now pointing in the direction of AlfenSize of product issues are unknown but costs will likely go into the millionsNot good for Alfen's track record nor for the sentiment. Hold reiterated.
We initiate coverage on Alfen with a BUY rating and a €70.00 target price. Alfen is a leading diversified clean energy company offering investors exposure to various growth trends that are directly linked to the energy transition. Alfen operates a unique asset light B2B model of three business lines built on more than 85 years of electricity grid expertise. Alfen achieved a 2017-23 revenue CAGR of as much as 38% and despite this stellar growth has generated positive EBITDA every single year. In ...
Since the 2020-21 peak, the investor excitement about EV's has cooled. However, the shift from early-adopters to mass-market is progressing. The cost disadvantage of EV-cars is declining steadily while charging speeds and range autonomy increase. Some bottlenecks in the grid and renewable energy production have to be tackled and financed. The trend towards a BEV-only world is irreversible and will only accelerate from here. Fastned sits in the leading pack of companies that secure fast-charge lo...
We take advantage of Alfen's FY23 release last week to fine-tune our revenue and margin estimates, taking into account confirmed guidance for FY24 and granularity provided per segment. Guidance for FY24 suggests good visibility on the top line and sustained momentum across all business lines, with
>Beat on consensus expectations: 6% on EBITDA - Revenues FY23 were up 15% y-o-y to € 504.5m (consensus € 502.4m), implying Q4 revenues came in at € 144.3m (consensus € 142.2m), up 6% q-o-q from € 136.4m in Q3Gross profit FY23 down 1% y-o-t to € 151.1m or a 30.0% margin (consensus € 151.2m; 30.1%), implying Q4 gross profit of € 42.7m or 29.6% margin (consensus € 42.8m; 30.1%), up 6% q-o-q from € 40.1m or 29.4% margin in 23Q3.Adjusted EBITDA FY23 came in at € ...
Alfen has published FY23 numbers (EUR504.5m top line, 11.3% EBITDA) in line with the guidance provided in Q3 2023 and consensus figures (EUR502.5m, 11.2% EBITDA, vs BGe EUR500.0m, 11.0% EBITDA). FY24 guidance indicates good visibility on the top line and sustained momentum across all business lines
FY23 revenue at EUR 504.5m, in line with outlook, CSS and estimatesOur FY24e revenue estimate (EUR 643m) is at higher end of the 2024 outlook of EUR 590-660m (CSS EUR 635m)Whereas the results are in line and the outlook is as well, the shares have rerated materially since our upgrade. As such, we downgrade to Hold with a new EUR 66.0 TP, DCF-based (WACC of 8.6%)
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