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Wim Gille
  • Wim Gille

ODDO : Feedback Benelux Conference 2025

On Wednesday 21 May we hosted our 30th ABN AMRO – ODDO BHF Benelux Forum at ABN AMRO’s headquarters. The forum was attended by 21 listed companies (almost all C-level attendance) and around 70 investors. We hosted roughly 300 meetings overall.

Hilde Van Boxstael ... (+8)
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Lynn Hautekeete
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Thibault Leneeuw
  • Thomas Couvreur
  • Thomas Vranken
  • Wim Hoste
  • Wim Lewi
Thibault Leneeuw
  • Thibault Leneeuw

Alfen A growth company that doesn't grow

In this note we adjust our estimates as Alfen's 1Q25 results have once again fallen short of expectations. The outlook for the smart grid solutions segment, which was anticipated to be robust, disappointed. Despite investment plans highlighting labour shortages, the impact has been more severe than anticipated. Additionally, gross profit margins dynamics in the smart grid segment are well below our expectations. In the EV charging segment, public demand was low, while increased competition in th...

Thymen Rundberg ... (+2)
  • Thymen Rundberg
  • Tijs Hollestelle

Alfen/Less appealing than we thought/HOLD (previously Buy)

Alfen has lowered both its FY25 revenue and adjusted EBITDA margin guidance. We cut our FY25F EBITDA estimate by 39%. Our old forecasts aimed at the mid-point of the former revenue guidance and we now aim at the low end of the new revenue guidance. With regards to the adjusted EBITDA margin guidance we aim below the low end of the new guidance as the gross margin mix works against Alfen. We change our recommendation from Buy to HOLD. The two ingredients for our prior bullish view were: (1) Posit...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Alfen: Dead cat bounce? Ayvens: Overhang cure. Belgian telcos: Hey! discontinues €5 offer, OBEL price increases from June 2025. B&S Group: Pulls FY EBITDA guidance in light of tariffs. D'Ieteren: CMD, 1Q25 Preview. Kendrion: Wrestling through difficult macro conditions. NN Group, ASR: Vote on Dutch pension reforms postponed. TKH Group: Not that bad, good progress at Eemshaven. UCB: US Most Favoured Nation initiative back on the agenda. Vastned: Good results, integration ongoing...

Mahaut Arnaud ... (+3)
  • Mahaut Arnaud
  • Paul de Froment
  • Thomas Mordelle

Alfen: slow Q1 as expected, FY25 guidance cut

Alfen published Q1 2025 figures yesterday. Revenue came in at EUR103.8m (-23% QoQ vs. EUR134.5m in Q4 2024, -11% YoY vs. EUR116.8m in Q1 2024) mainly due to challenging dynamics in EV charging and Energy Storage. This compares with FY25 revenue consensus standing at EUR483m. Q1 numbers were impacte

Jacob Mekhael ... (+5)
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Kristof Samoy
  • Thibault Leneeuw
  • Thomas Couvreur
  • Wim Hoste

Morning Notes : ENX FP, GLPG NA, HYL BB, SOLB BB, TWEKA NA, EKOP BB, A...

: ENX FP, GLPG NA, HYL BB, SOLB BB, TWEKA NA, EKOP BB, ALFEN NA

Thijs Berkelder
  • Thijs Berkelder
ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

AB InBev: Strong brew. Adecco: 1Q25 beats on timing of JV income; 2Q25 outlook momentum positive. Alfen: Preview - 1Q25 should arrive in line. AMG: Strong 1Q25 EBITDA beat, guidance raised. BAM Group: Non-residential backs EBITDA increase. CTP: Strong results combined with strong message on demand dynamics. JDE Peet's: Jumping Beans. Kinepolis: Peer AMC 1Q25 results - revenues per visitor more subdued. Prosus: CEO letter highlights strong profit growth in 2026. Proximus: CpaaS ...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Arcadis: Short-term uncertainty, long-term continues to look attractive. Coverage change. Results Calendar

Thymen Rundberg ... (+2)
  • Thymen Rundberg
  • Tijs Hollestelle

Alfen/Specific qualities for a specific audience/BUY (previously Hold)

Alfen's 4Q24 results were broadly in line with our expectations, but with the new medium-term objectives as well as the more specific 2025 guidance undershooting our below consensus expectations. We therefore cut our 2025-26 revenue estimates by 11% and 14% and our EBITDA estimates by 28% and 24% respectively. Management did bite the bullet and provided more cautious end market growth prospects for the different business segments. Equally importantly, several cost actions were taken that should ...

Guy Sips ... (+6)
  • Guy Sips
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Lynn Hautekeete
  • Sharad Kumar S.P
  • Thibault Leneeuw
  • Thomas Couvreur
Mahaut Arnaud ... (+3)
  • Mahaut Arnaud
  • Paul de Froment
  • Thomas Mordelle

Alfen: Michelle Lesh steps down as CCO

This morning, Alfen announced that Michelle Lesh, who has served as Alfen's CCO since 2021, has decided to step down from her role, effective 31st March 2025. Over the past four years, Michelle was instrumental in leading Alfen’s commercial and business development efforts across all three of its b

Guy Sips ... (+4)
  • Guy Sips
  • Sharad Kumar S.P
  • Thibault Leneeuw
  • Thomas Couvreur
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