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ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

ABN Amro: Miss but strong capital, good set of results / Ahold Delhaize: Strong 4Q25 but no major surprise on FY26 adj. EPS guidance / Alfen: No recovery yet and another transitional year / BAM Group: Preview: 2026 outlook the key item / Econocom: Better REBITA, net debt, but EBIT below, much lower net profit, dividend halved, 2026-28 guidance postponed to “medium term” / Exor: Ferrari 4Q25 and 2026 guidance beat / Gecina: Results and guidance in line, DPS set to grow over 2026-30 / Heineken: No...

Guy Sips ... (+6)
  • Guy Sips
  • Mathijs Geerts Danau
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Thibault Leneeuw
  • Thomas Couvreur
  • Wim Hoste
Thijs Berkelder
  • Thijs Berkelder
Guy Sips ... (+5)
  • Guy Sips
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Mathijs Geerts Danau
  • Wim Hoste
  • Wim Lewi
Wim Lewi
  • Wim Lewi

Elia Group German government agrees on 25.1% Tennet stake

Yesterday, the German government (via KfW) secured a 25.1% "blocking minority" in TenneT's German operations. The €3.3bn deal ends years of negotiations between Germany and the Netherlands. The deal is struck at the same equity value following the capital contribution (46%) from ABP, GIC and Norges Bank in 09/25 at a total equity value of 13.3bn. TenneT NL will hold the remaining 28.9%. We understand from the Handelsblatt that KfW will invest an additional €1.7bn before 2035. TenneT GE will no...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Aedifica and Cofinimmo: Exchange offer to start tomorrow / Alfen: Preview: new year, new chances / BAM Group: Nice add-on in the Dutch housing market / dsm-firmenich: Givaudan 2026 guidance read-across / Heijmans: Preview: 2025F was the cat's meow / Melexis: 4Q25 preview, towards a cyclical recovery / TomTom: Preview 4Q25, look beyond 2026 / Van Lanschot Kempen: Small UK Fiduciary mandate, second of the month though

Guy Sips ... (+6)
  • Guy Sips
  • Kristof Samoy
  • Livio Luyten
  • Lynn Hautekeete
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Wim Lewi
Wim Lewi
  • Wim Lewi

Elia Group AI investment tsunami whips up TSO valuations

We upgrade our recommendation to Accumulate and raise our price target to €135.0 from €110.0 on multiple expansion over the next 6 to 12 months. We leave our EPS estimates for FY26-27 unchanged, but increase our price target to 22x FY27 EPS. Our previous target was based on 20x FY26 EPS, but we roll forward on a 10% higher multiple as the sentiment towards grid operators benefits from the “wall of money” into datacenters, while grid connection is the bottleneck. It can take years before the ROE ...

Marc Hesselink ... (+3)
  • Marc Hesselink
  • CFA
  • Thymen Rundberg

Fastned/The funding base evolves/HOLD

Fastned's 4Q25 update shows faster station roll out but volume growth is still lagging BEV penetration. We make limited near term estimate changes, slightly lift longer term assumptions on higher BEV adoption, and increase capex forecasts. The new €200m loan facility is a positive, improving near term funding visibility, but we remain cautious given high leverage, funding needs beyond 2027, and softening charging volume growth. We maintain our HOLD rating and slightly raise our target price to €...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Avantium: (Ti)me delay. Belgian telecoms: Telenet increases price as of March. Fastned: Funding step-up, Fastned secures €200m loan. Lotus Bakeries: Preview FY25. MICC: Preview FY25. Signify: 4Q25 preview. Van Lanschot Kempen: Large AuM win in Fiduciary

Thijs Berkelder
  • Thijs Berkelder
ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

D'Ieteren: PHE does nice mid-size M&A in Spain / Fastned: Beat on gross profit, organic growth lags, high cash burn / JDE Peet's: Caffè Americano / Semi equipment: TSMC puts capex where its mouth is / Theon International: Increasing Harder Digital's capacity.

Hilde Van Boxstael ... (+5)
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Livio Luyten
  • Lynn Hautekeete
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Wim Lewi
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