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Thijs Berkelder
  • Thijs Berkelder
ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

DEME Group: First Havfram vessel ready. Fastned: 3Q25 trading update – new stations boost growth, organic lags BEV penetration. NN Group & ASR: Pension reform on track for 1st tranche move from DB to DC in Jan 26. Sligro: Another weak trading update, but FY25 guidance reiterated. Talabat: Surprise CEO departure

Guy Sips ... (+6)
  • Guy Sips
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Livio Luyten
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Thibault Leneeuw
  • Wim Lewi
ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Exor: CMD of the prancing horse. Fastned: 3Q25 preview. Kinepolis: Peer Cineplex September 2025 box office revenue at 85% of 2019, up 7% YoY. Staffing: Hays' 1Q26 trading update. Var Energi: Ramping up production as planned

Hilde Van Boxstael ... (+3)
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Livio Luyten
  • Wim Lewi
ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Ageas: Highlights ING Benelux Conference London. Alfen: Highlights from ING Benelux Conference London. Arcadis: Highlights ING Benelux Conference London. ASR: Highlights ING Benelux Conference London. BAM: Highlights ING Benelux Conference London. Basic-Fit: Highlights ING Benelux Conference London. CTP: Highlights from ING Benelux Conference London. DEME Group: Highlights ING Benelux Conference London. Fugro: Highlights ING Benelux Conference London. Heijmans: Highlights ING Bene...

Thymen Rundberg ... (+2)
  • Thymen Rundberg
  • Tijs Hollestelle

Alfen/Near-term outlook remains clouded/HOLD

Alfen reported broadly in line 1H25 results and maintained its 2025 outlook but lowered its 2026 revenue growth and adjusted its EBITDA margin guidance. As a result, we cut our FY26F revenue estimate by c.4% and our FY26F EBITDA estimate by around 16%. Alfen's Smart Grid division reported rather weak production volumes in 2Q25 and a very low quarterly gross margin, which increased the overall risk profile of the company. The Smart Grid division has the most attractive fundamental characteristics...

Marc Hesselink ... (+3)
  • Marc Hesselink
  • CFA
  • Thymen Rundberg

Fastned/Discharged momentum/HOLD

In our view Fastned reported disappointing 1H25 results. We mainly make downward adjustments to our charging volume estimates for the coming years. We increase our pricing estimates beyond 2025, partially offsetting lower volumes. We slightly increase our long-term (post 2030) estimates, resulting in our DCF-driven target price of €20 (unchanged), and we reiterate our HOLD rating.

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

AEGON: Addition of €200m to existing SBB, considering US domicile, results mixed. Alfen: 19% EBITDA cut, mid-point new 2026 guidance. Flow Traders: Positive volumes, negative volatility. Kinepolis: Strong profit beat on better operating leverage, higher ticket and ITS per visitor. Recticel: Peer Rockwool 2Q25 results. Tessenderlo: Solid 1H25 beat, guidance maintained. VGP: Strong results, more news on JVs to come

Guy Sips ... (+6)
  • Guy Sips
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Thibault Leneeuw
  • Thomas Couvreur
  • Wim Hoste
  • Wim Lewi
Mahaut Arnaud ... (+3)
  • Mahaut Arnaud
  • Paul de Froment
  • Thomas Mordelle

Alfen: H1 2025 results, mid-term outlook lowered

Alfen published H1 2025 figures yesterday. Revenue came in at EUR211.5m (-13.9% YoY vs. EUR245.7m in H1 2024) mainly with challenging dynamics in EV charging and Energy Storage, while benefiting from favourable base effects in Smart Grids, which was impacted by moistening issues in Q2 2024. This wa

Thijs Berkelder
  • Thijs Berkelder
Thijs Berkelder
  • Thijs Berkelder
Mahaut Arnaud ... (+3)
  • Mahaut Arnaud
  • Paul de Froment
  • Thomas Mordelle

Fastned: H1 results, GM recovery, roll-out acceleration expected in H2

This morning, Fastned published its H1 2025 key metrics and number of operating stations. H1 sales came in at EUR54.3m (+44% YoY), implying revenue of EUR26.3m in Q2 2025 (-9% vs cons. at EUR28.9m) and pointing to an annual run-rate of at least EUR108m (vs cons. at EUR130.8m for FY25 and STFe EUR13

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