reports
- Clement Genelot
Ahold Delhaize: Safe-haven status confirmed
A closer look at "clean LfL" has highlighted an improving trend across the board. This is set to continue through H2, in our view, thanks to recovering volume/mix in Europe and additional price investments in the US made possible by stronger profitability metrics in Q2. Having lifted our EPS slight
- Clement Genelot
Ahold Delhaize: Q2 EBIT beat; fewer Stop&Shop closures
Q2 provided a very positive >7% EBIT beat, fuelled by both the US and Europe. With consensus slightly below FY EBIT and FCF guidance, we expect some upgrades and see room for a stock rebound today. While still an appealing defensive yield stock for the medium term with a safer shareholder return
- Clement Genelot
Ahold Delhaize: Feedback from CMD and roadshow with CEO
Post-CMD and roadshow with the group's CEO, we welcome the strategic plan more skewed towards business reinvestment aimed at leveraging volumes with sufficiently invested assets. However, this admittedly removes any hopes of a further "beat and raise" cycle and leaves us with no material short-term
- Clement Genelot
French Food Retail: welcome back to deflation
With France returning to food deflation in May at -0.1%, and the trend set to persist if not worsen over coming months, we foresee even more negative market growth and a greater likelihood of a price war in the short-term. Among the key grocery markets, France is becoming the hotspot, fuelling our
- Research Department
INFORME DIARIO 24 MAYO (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: ACCIONA, ACCIONA ENERGÍA, CELLNEX, IBERDROLA, REPSOL, SACYR. EUROPA: AHOLD DELHAIZE. El mercado celebra los resultados de NVIDIA pero se desinfla al cierre La mejora de sentimiento después de los buenos resultados NVIDIA del 1T’24 animaron a las bolsas europeas, aunque la euforia se fue resintiendo hacia el cierre. Así en el STOXX 600 los mejores sectores fueron Tecnología (contagio positivo desde EE.UU.) e Industriales mientras que Utilities e Inm...
- Clement Genelot
Food Retail: Navigating stormy waters of deflation and price war
As food deflation risks increasingly diverge from one market to another, we take a fresh look at local price war risks and at the sector earnings cycle. We remain puzzled by the YTD sector derating and underperformance while FY 2024-25 expected EPS growth is still strong. Many investors seem to be
- Arancha Pineiro
- Clement Genelot
Ahold Delhaize: forecast beat cycle restored
Q1 sales and EBIT topped expectations in both of the group's geographies, continuing to demonstrate Ahold Delhaize's ability to preserve LfL growth and profitability during disinflationary times. We expect limited upgrades to consensus estimates prior to the CMD, but are betting more on a gradual r
- Clement Genelot
Ahold Delhaize: better US macro, momentum inflection ahead
Ahead of the Q1 release on 8th May, we have notched up our top-line forecast to reflect less likely food deflation in the US and better volume trends across the board, even if this is mitigated on the bottom line by higher central cost expectations. We still believe Q2 could be the long-awaited inf
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #19
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we return to the Q4 earnings season in Europe with a global view. Happy reading!
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #18
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we comment on the CCP accelerating policy support. Happy reading!
- Clement Genelot
Ahold Delhaize: yield untouched and momentum only a quarter away
Ahold Delhaize continues to demonstrate its status as a defensive yield stock with an untouched 8% shareholder return yield enabled by healthy FCF of >EUR2.2bn a year. With no price war on the horizon in either the US or the Netherlands so far, the very likely prospect of food deflation in these
- Clement Genelot
- Clement Genelot
Ahold Delhaize: momentum needs another quarter to recover
Ahead of the FY release on 14th February, we have cut our Q4 EBIT by 4% to reflect steeper food disinflation in the US and the Netherlands. FY 2023 guidance and the yield stock status both remain intact as the group's fundamentals are far from broken. But restoring growth/margin momentum will take
- Clement Genelot
Food Retail: reshuffling French competitive landscape
With the French market finally consolidating under the impetus of Carrefour, Auchan and Intermarché, we forecast a new market structure built around three players (Leclerc, Carrefour and Intermarché) vs. only two before. Carrefour's purchasing power could be undermined with visible impacts on EBIT
- Clement Genelot
- Clement Genelot
Ahold Delhaize: model update post-Q3
Post-Q3 earnings, we have cut our FY 2023-25 estimates by 2% to reflect a tougher SNAP headwind and lengthier volume recovery. We continue to believe that a share price below EUR29 is a good entry point and reiterate our Buy rating to play an appealing and safe 7-8% shareholder return yield.
- Clement Genelot
Ahold Delhaize Q3 preview: Temporary US profitability headwinds
Ahead of the Q3 publication on 8th November (before-market opening), we have cut our Q3 estimates by 6% and our FY 2023 estimates by 1% to reflect mostly temporary profitability headwinds in the US that are set to vanish as of Q4 with better margin prospects from Q4 onwards. Below EUR29/share remai
- Clement Genelot
Food Retail: when food disinflation proves to be a tailwind
As the trend moves from food inflation to food disinflation, we foresee slower top-line growth but above all an aligning of the planets in terms of profitability (still not priced in by the consensus) combining gross margin recovery and easing OPEX headwinds. The US should benefit as of late H2 202
- Clement Genelot
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