reports
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #71
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at how tariffs have dominated recent earnings calls over other topics such a
- Clement Genelot
Food for thought on Ahold Delhaize's aborted acquisition talks with Ca...
Ahold Delhaize is said to have approached Carrefour in late 2024 before walking away in January 2025. The failed discussions are positive for us as a deal would have totally transformed Ahold Delhaize's equity story from "defensive/yield" to a tentative and very risky "growth/recovery" with a likel
- Clement Genelot
Food Retail: trade war lifted multiples, beware of future sector rotat...
European food retail enjoyed a paradoxical 1.5x P/E expansion vs. deteriorating earnings trend YTD now turning negative, fuelled by a sector rotation with investors looking for defensive stocks. With trade wars easing, we have reviewed the valuation, earnings momentum and sector indicators for each
- Clement Genelot
Ahold Delhaize: Europe to make up for US margin erosion this year
Post a strong Q1 print, we have cut our FY25 EBIT and EPS by 2% and 3% respectively, to reflect the reversing USD while a faster European profitability recovery should offset likely US margin erosion fuelled by a dilutive sales mix. PT lifted to EUR39 however, with a lower beta and untouched safe-h
- Arancha Pineiro
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #68
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at fragile US consumer sentiment which might precede a sharp pullback in spe
- Clement Genelot
Ahold Delhaize: surfing on USD while sticking to good execution on pro...
Understanding the Q4 US EBIT miss and looking ahead to 2025 is reassuring in terms of Ahold Delhaize's ability to continue to turn around its underperforming US banners, optimise Europe and integrate Profi while sustaining a strong EBIT margin. PT lifted to EUR37 mostly thanks to the USD surge sinc
- Arancha Pineiro
AHOLD DELHAIZE: RDOS. 4T’24 (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
Rdos. 4T'24 vs 4T'23: Ventas: 23.276 M euros (+1,1% vs +0,4% BS(e) y +0,8% consenso); EBIT: 958,0 M euros (-3,8% vs -6,9% BS(e) y -5,5% consenso); BDI: 380,0 M euros (-15,7% vs +44,1% BS(e) y +48,6% consenso). Rdos. 2024 vs 2023: Ventas: 89.356 M euros (+0,8% vs +0,6% BS(e) y +0,7% consenso); EBIT: 3.608 M euros (+0,1% vs -0,8% BS(e) y -0,4% consenso); BDI: 1.764 M euros (-5,9% vs +8,5% BS(e) y +9,6% consenso).
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Clement Genelot
Ahold Delhaize: the Kroger/Albertsons merger is dead, now what?
As the Kroger/Albertsons merger is falling apart, we foresee revived M&A activity in the US grocery market and have taken a closer look at Ahold Delhaize's potential role in it. We would view any large-scale deal negatively, but welcome bolt-on acquisitions as long as they do not jeopardise Aho
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #51
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week we look at the new record high reached by online shopping during the Cyber Week 2024.
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #49
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week we look at the Q3 earnings season across consumer segments with a comparison between
- Clement Genelot
Ahold Delhaize: still executing and delivering well
Ahold Delhaize continues to execute and deliver well, laying strong foundations for a less risky repositioning of US business from 2025, and for a long-term recovery in European business. PT raised to EUR34 to reflect our slight estimates lift, the DCF & SOTP roll-over and new buyback accretion
- Arancha Pineiro
AHOLD DELHAIZE: RDOS. 3T’24 (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
Rdos. 3T'24 vs 3T'23: Ventas: 22.003 M euros (+0,3% vs 0,0% BS(e) y -0,1% consenso); EBIT: 855,0 M euros (+1,9% vs +0,5% BS(e) y -0,2% consenso); BDI: 372,0 M euros (-5,6% vs +8,1% BS(e) y +7,6% consenso); Rdos. 9meses'24 vs 9meses'23: Ventas: 66.080 M euros (+0,7% vs +0,6% BS(e) y +0,6% consenso); EBIT: 2.649 M euros (+1,6% vs +1,2% BS(e) y +0,9% consenso); BDI: 1.384 M euros (-2,7% vs +1,1% BS(e) y +0,9% consenso).
- Research Department
INFORME DIARIO 06 NOVIEMBRE + RDOS. ESPAÑA Y EUROPA 3T’24. IDEAS DESTA...
COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: ACCIONA ENERGÍA, SANTANDER. EUROPA: AHOLD DELHAIZE, BMW, SIEMENS, UNICREDIT. Incluido en el informe diario de hoy, y durante toda la campaña de resultados, incorporamos al final una presentación con los resultados destacados en positivo y negativo y previews de Rdos. 3T’24 que se publicarán en España y Europa en los próximos días. Trump gana las elecciones A la espera de conocer el desenlace oficial, todo parece indicar que Trump habría ganado las...
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #45
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week we look at spending patterns in Europe, which show a clear reallocation towards the f
- Clement Genelot
Ahold Delhaize: Safe-haven status confirmed
A closer look at "clean LfL" has highlighted an improving trend across the board. This is set to continue through H2, in our view, thanks to recovering volume/mix in Europe and additional price investments in the US made possible by stronger profitability metrics in Q2. Having lifted our EPS slight
- Clement Genelot
Ahold Delhaize: Q2 EBIT beat; fewer Stop&Shop closures
Q2 provided a very positive >7% EBIT beat, fuelled by both the US and Europe. With consensus slightly below FY EBIT and FCF guidance, we expect some upgrades and see room for a stock rebound today. While still an appealing defensive yield stock for the medium term with a safer shareholder return
- Clement Genelot
Ahold Delhaize: Feedback from CMD and roadshow with CEO
Post-CMD and roadshow with the group's CEO, we welcome the strategic plan more skewed towards business reinvestment aimed at leveraging volumes with sufficiently invested assets. However, this admittedly removes any hopes of a further "beat and raise" cycle and leaves us with no material short-term
- Clement Genelot
French Food Retail: welcome back to deflation
With France returning to food deflation in May at -0.1%, and the trend set to persist if not worsen over coming months, we foresee even more negative market growth and a greater likelihood of a price war in the short-term. Among the key grocery markets, France is becoming the hotspot, fuelling our
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