reports
- Clement Genelot
Delivery Hero: selling Taiwan plus surprise capital raise reserved to ...
Delivery Hero has surprisingly agreed to sell Taiwan to Uber for USD1,250m / EUR1,160m (o/w EUR885m for Taiwan at 0.6x EV/GMV and EUR279m via a reserved capital increase at a 30% premium). With both parties in tough negotiations for months, we see this as a compromise to let Delivery Hero cash-in t
- Clement Genelot
Food Retail: Navigating stormy waters of deflation and price war
As food deflation risks increasingly diverge from one market to another, we take a fresh look at local price war risks and at the sector earnings cycle. We remain puzzled by the YTD sector derating and underperformance while FY 2024-25 expected EPS growth is still strong. Many investors seem to be
- Arancha Pineiro
- Clement Genelot
Ahold Delhaize: forecast beat cycle restored
Q1 sales and EBIT topped expectations in both of the group's geographies, continuing to demonstrate Ahold Delhaize's ability to preserve LfL growth and profitability during disinflationary times. We expect limited upgrades to consensus estimates prior to the CMD, but are betting more on a gradual r
- Clement Genelot
Delivery Hero: still delivering despite competition-driven reinvestmen...
In Q1, Delivery Hero demonstrated its ability to outperform peers and generate an appealing growth/profitability/FCF profile, which should continue to fuel the ongoing rerating (i.e. 0.9x EV/Sales 2025e vs. 0.7-0.8x as of Feb.) even though Meituan's in-road into Saudi Arabia has to be closely monit
- Clement Genelot
Delivery Hero: Q1 sales beat, FY sales guidance upgrade.
Q1 proved to be strong, beating consensus figures, with re-accelerating GMV and sales growth. The upgrade to FY 2024 sales guidance (with rising debate over the prospect of an EBITDA upgrade as well this year) strengthens our view that Delivery Hero deserves to rerate further beyond 0.9x EV/Sales g
- Clement Genelot
Food Delivery: diverging growth/FCF profiles
Post TKWY and ROO's Q1 figures and ahead of DHER's publication, we note an improving growth trend in Q1. This growth will nevertheless have to rebalance towards orders as out-of-home food is also set to face disinflation this year. The ability to recreate HSD% growth will be the name of the 2024-25
- Clement Genelot
Ahold Delhaize: better US macro, momentum inflection ahead
Ahead of the Q1 release on 8th May, we have notched up our top-line forecast to reflect less likely food deflation in the US and better volume trends across the board, even if this is mitigated on the bottom line by higher central cost expectations. We still believe Q2 could be the long-awaited inf
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #23
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the recovery in global passenger air traffic. Happy reading!
- Clement Genelot
MdM: model update
Post-FY publication, we have fine-tuned our model to better take into account: i) the full FY accounts, ii) some positive one-offs that boosted 2023 EBIT, iii) c.100 store conversions via an affiliation model rather than 75/25% via affiliation/franchise.Our DCF-valuation approach still leads to a E
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #21
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the expected growth recovery among e-commerce players and the necessary b
- Clement Genelot
MdM: Back to basics with a 2024-26 back-end loaded plan
Maisons du Monde's CMD marked a paradigm shift with the growth era now behind us and the urgent need to fix the basics going forward. We can only welcome this new strategy, totally in line with the new CEO's profile, especially with its more asset-light model thanks to massive recourse to affiliati
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #20
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we comment on the US-Europe decoupling as US GDP growth forecasts for 2024 become in
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #19
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we return to the Q4 earnings season in Europe with a global view. Happy reading!
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #18
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we comment on the CCP accelerating policy support. Happy reading!
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #17
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we comment on the markets' harsh reaction to the January CPI (US), which from an opt
- Clement Genelot
Delivery Hero: appealing growth/profitability profile and easing liqui...
Post-FY publication, we see FY 2024 guidance as further proof of Delivery Hero's ability to adopt an appealing growth/profitability profile that would assuredly deserve a rerating from 0.8x EV/Sales towards 2-3x. Liquidity concerns have long restrained this rerating, but even on very cautious assum
- Clement Genelot
Ahold Delhaize: yield untouched and momentum only a quarter away
Ahold Delhaize continues to demonstrate its status as a defensive yield stock with an untouched 8% shareholder return yield enabled by healthy FCF of >EUR2.2bn a year. With no price war on the horizon in either the US or the Netherlands so far, the very likely prospect of food deflation in these
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #15
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage from Luxury & Consumer goods, to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we take a look at the latest economic data on US consumers as we think they could pr
- Clement Genelot
Delivery Hero: understanding the Southeast Asian problem
Recent Momentum Works 2023 market share data reveal the urgency for Delivery Hero to sell off its Southeast Asia business. With EUR2.6bn GMV/EUR360m sales/EUR82m EBITDA losses on sale for some time, we expect no material proceeds (EUR200-400m) and see Meituan as a more credible buyer than Grab. App
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