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ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

ASR: Better results, strong solvency, SBB below though; new CEO, new CMD on 1 Dec / IMCD: Weak 4Q25 / Kinepolis: Bankruptcy of Belga Films, the oldest film distribution business, along with its eight-screen cinema complex in Brussels; 2H25 preview / Proximus: CpaaS peer Sinch 4Q25 results a bit light of consensus, stock down 14%

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Aedifica: Results slightly better, guidance for the combined entity to come in Sept. CM.com: 4Q25 results – no turning point yet. D'Ieteren: Allstate reports bumper 4Q25, touts premium cuts, consensus prudent. Heijmans: Construction cool cat. Proximus: CPaaS peer Twilio 4Q25 results better than expected. Talabat: 4Q25 results, doubling down on investments. Theon International: Preview – a busy year it was.

Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

Swisscom (Neutral, TP: CHF 595, -13%) Post Q4 25 model update – Macro...

In this note, we update our model and thoughts following the Q4 results (HERE) incorporating conference call feedback and compare our new estimates to guidance and consensus. Swisscom trades at a significant premium to the sector thanks to favourable macro factors (rates, yield, Italy M&A, CHF strength) but the telco issues (Swiss SR, Salt share gains, ARPU weakness), do not warrant such an elevated multiple in our view.

Stephane Beyazian
  • Stephane Beyazian
Stephane Beyazian
  • Stephane Beyazian
Jan Frederik Slijkerman ... (+5)
  • Jan Frederik Slijkerman
  • Jeroen van den Broek
  • Jesse Norcross
  • Nadège Tillier
  • Timothy Rahill

Coffee, Croissants & Credit/RELX, Swisscom, Unibail

RELX reports strong FY25 results / Swisscom FY25 results look soft ahead of Vodafone Italia acquisition / Unibail FY25: further deleveraging, solid shopping centre performance

Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

Swisscom (Neutral, TP: CHF609, -9%) Q4 25: A good EBITDA beat thanks ...

Swisscom has reported a good set of Q4 numbers; a small SR miss, but EBITDAaL is c2% ahead thanks to faster than expected synergy delivery in Italy (Italy EBITDAaL c+8% ahead).

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Aedifica: c.€29m new developments in Germany and Finland / GBL: €0.5bn equity investment in Rayner, an ophthalmic MedTech specialist / NN Group: Is consensus running ahead of a capital update with FY25 results? / Philips: Supportive update ahead of CMD / Proximus: Route Mobile 3Q26 shows lower revenues, better profitability / Staffing sector: French staffing: December better but January outlook weaker but perhaps better than number of temp outlook indicates / VAR Energi: Strong CMD target 400kpd...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Ahold Delhaize: Serbia regulation to be litigated at international level. CM.com: Preview FY25. dsm-firmenich: At last! Exor: Stellantis shares fall sharply on €22bn turnaround plan, writeoff. Euronext: 2026 starting strong. Proximus: €275m impairment at Proximus Global

Hilde Van Boxstael ... (+4)
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Kristof Samoy
  • Wim Hoste
  • Wim Lewi
Felix Fischer ... (+6)
  • Felix Fischer
  • Filipe Botelho
  • Haidje Rustau
  • Peter Low
  • Si Yong Ng
  • Tanvi Arora

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Nemak, Telenet, Lowell, AMS Osram, evoke, Atalian, Maxeda, TUI, Morrisons

Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

Telenor (Neutral, TP: NOK 160, -7%) post Q4 25 model update – Impressi...

In this note, we update our model and thoughts following the Q4 results incorporating conference call feedback and compare our new estimates to guidance and consensus.

Telenor ASA: 2 directors

Two Directors at Telenor ASA bought 15,500 shares at between 172.000NOK and 173.500NOK. The significance rating of the trade was 60/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the ...

Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

Orange Belgium (Neutral, TP: €21.6, +12%) H2 25 results: Numbers beat...

OBEL has reported a good set of numbers, with EBITDAaL c+3% ahead of consensus and 2026 EBITDAaL guidance is better than consensus expectations. There is evidence of a Digi impact in MSR and ARPU, but KPIs are OK, suggesting that OBEL is protecting share over ARPU - OBEL has c30% of revs from mobile only, which are vulnerable to Digi in our view.

Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

Telenor (Neutral, TP: NOK 150, -7%) Q4 25: Good results, new Buyback ...

Telenor has reported a good set of Q4 numbers, issued solid guidance for FY26, and announced a new 7% (over 3 years) buyback, that should help it shrug off the recent negative Telia-ICE RAN sharing news (HERE). We downgraded to Neutral in July (HERE) due to insufficient upside to be Buy, and because we saw better value elsewhere in the sector, and we were worried about dividend cover given rising Asian costs. Selling out of Thailand (HERE) helps repair the B/S and supports sentiment. As things s...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Adyen: Preview 2H25. Aperam: In-line 4Q25, upbeat medium-term outlook balances short-term consensus risk. Ayvens: Fast Car (UCS normalisation). Barco: 4Q25 preview, mixed performance. Lotus Bakeries: Another beat on every line. Orange Belgium: 2H25 EBITDAal beat on lower sales, much better 2026 guidance. Philips: CMD & 4Q25 preview, execution is key. RELX: FY25 preview. Universal Music Group: Peer Warner Music 4% revenue and 11% OIBDA beat

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