Elisa Oyj: 1 director

A director at Elisa Oyj sold 20,000 shares at 46.440EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 86/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showi...

Elisa (Hold, TP: EUR48.00) - sedApta acquisition neutralised Q3

The Q3 report was on the weak side, in our opinion, with revenues 3% below consensus. We have trimmed our underlying estimates, which is offset by the acquired sedApta business. We reiterate our HOLD and EUR48 target price.

Margin resilience, capex remains elevated

Elisa (Neutral, TP: €53, +9%) Q3 24: Stable MSR growth, but much wea...

Elisa has reported a slightly mixed set of results; reported service revenue growth is much slower and has missed expectations badly(-0.2% y/y from +3.9% y/y), but MSR growth is unchanged at +4.8% y/y with fixed -5.8% y/y from +2.9% y/y. EBITDA though is in-line with expectations, and reported EBITDA growth is +3.7% y/y from +3.9% y/y, suggesting that [the lack of] operational leverage is now working in reverse.

Solid EBITDA but higher capex

Valuation uplift has materialised - HOLD

EU TELECOMS REFRESH: Can the outperformance continue?

When was the last time we could write that the EU Telecoms sector has been the second best performing sector in the market YTD? As a result, this raises the question of whether the outperformance can continue. We believe regulation will ultimately determine the answer to this question.

Solid Q2 with accelerating EBITDA growth

Q2 delivered healthy MSR growth of 5% and improving IDS supporting op. leverage; EBITDA growth accelerating 4 Q's in a row. Limited changes to outlook - keep BUY.

Elisa (Hold, TP: EUR45.00) - Small top-line deviation explained by B2B...

Elisa (ELISA FH, Hold) - Small top-line deviation explained by B2B contract (23 pages)

Elisa (Neutral, TP: €53, +26%) Q2 24: Better SR trends, but MSR grow...

Elisa has reported a slightly mixed set of results; service revenue growth is better (+3.9% y/y from +1.0% y/y), but MSR growth is slightly slower, as is EBITDA growth. The better SR growth is thanks to fixed, which is thanks to Digital Services (DS) – but as per previous quarters, DS revenue is not really filtering through to EBITDA (which was only in-line vs consensus despite a SR beat), albeit B2B EBITDA growth was positive y/y.

In line, but accelerating EBITDA growth

Elisa (Hold, TP: EUR45.00) - Q2e set to improve versus Q1

We expect a slight revenue growth improvement in Q2 YOY versus Q1, driven by IDS, and further recovery in the full year. We are roughly in line with consensus, and reiterate our HOLD and EUR45 target price.

Declining premium creates good entry

Q2e solid as usual, comp. EBITDA up 3% y-o-y. Operational superiority remains, but the premium is shrinking. This is creating a great entry at 5.5% div.yield and >4% DPS CAGR.

Elisa (Hold, TP: EUR45.00) - Cost savings continue to lift EBITDA

The Q1 results showed improved mobile service revenue (MSR) growth and a return to growth in International Digital Services (IDS), and group EBITDA beat consensus on cost control. However, due to Elisa’s premium valuation to Nordic peers, we reiterate our HOLD and EUR45 target price.

Elisa (Neutral, TP: €54, +27%) Q1 24: EBITDA growth better than SR gr...

Elisa reported good results, with stable service revenue growth (+3% YoY) but importantly an acceleration in clean EBITDA (to +6% y/y from +4% y/y in Q4). EBITDA growth was better than SR growth for the first time since Q3 2021. This is what the market wanted to see, as concerns have been around operational leverage;

Elisa (Hold, TP: EUR45.00) - First quarter for new CEO

Q2–Q4 2023 revenues were below consensus, due to weakness in International Digital Services (IDS). Ahead of the Q1 results (due at 07:30 CET on 19 April), we are in line with consensus on sales and EBITDA. We reiterate our HOLD and EUR45 target price.

Elisa (Hold, TP: EUR45.00) - IDS still below our forecast

For the third consecutive quarter, International Digital Services’s revenue growth disappointed, resulting in a miss versus consensus on revenue. We believe the trends in IDS need to turn before investors could turn more positive. We reiterate our HOLD and EUR45 target price.

Elisa (Neutral, TP: €54, +26%) Q4 23: B2B performance remains a conce...

Elisa results continue to be characterised by a good B2C performance but a poor B2B performance (Revenue -1.4% y/y, EBITDA -3.4% y/y) . The bull case for the B2B division is that is that there are upfront losses and investments that will reverse, and when that happens, EBITDA growth will become positive.

Elisa (Hold, TP: EUR45.00) - Awaiting improving trends

Elisa missed our expectations and consensus in Q2 and Q3 2023. Ahead of the Q4 report (due at 07:30 CET on 26 January), we are marginally below consensus on sales and EBITDA. We reiterate our HOLD and EUR45 target price.

Elisa (Hold, TP: EUR45.00) - IDS and MSR disappoint in Q3

The Q3 results missed our forecasts, as IDS customers are delaying projects and MSR growth slowed QOQ, particularly in Estonia. This weaker growth versus key peers Telia/Tele2 limits the potential upside in our view; we reiterate our HOLD and have lowered our target price to EUR45 (47.5).