Elisa (Neutral, TP: €38, -2%) Post Q4 25 model update – Difficult outl...

In this note, we update our model and thoughts following the Q4 results incorporating conference call feedback and compare our new estimates to guidance and consensus. Elisa has had a tumultuous few days – down on the day of results, and now up heavily after.

Q4 softness, value emerging

Elisa (Neutral, TP: €40, +8%) Q4 25: Weak results, weak guidance, and...

Elisa has reported a weak set of Q4 numbers, with slowing trends, misses vs consensus, weak guidance and a lower than expected dividend. The results would justify a further sell-off in our view, as concerns over competition in Finland continue. Elisa has gone from being a premium-rated defensive bellwether to perennial downgrade concern.

Q4: competitive pressure persists

Growth slows, investment case intact

Elisa Oyj: 1 director

A director at Elisa Oyj maiden bought 2,500 shares at 38.225EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 60/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clear...

Quality at a discount

Elisa (Neutral, TP: €46, +12%) Q3 25: Slightly weak results, worrying ...

Elisa has reported a slightly weak set of results with both SR and EBITDA -0.7% below consensus expectations; LFL SR trends are better at +3.9% y/y from +3.2% y/y, thanks to a recovery in fixed, with MSR unchanged.

Weaker MSR growth on higher churn

Strong execution justifies higher premium

Why you should be reading the Tariff Tracker – a leading SR indicator

We publish monthly front book pricing data in our Tariff Tracker product. In this report we show some new analysis looking at how front book tariffs are a good leading indicator for service revenue trends in mobile and fixed, including new work looking at discounted and undiscounted prices.

MSR reassurance, but slower op. leverage

Elisa (Neutral, TP: €46, -1%) Q2 25: SR and EBITDA growth converge; h...

Elisa has reported a solid enough set of results, but both SR and EBITDA have missed consensus expectations very slightly, and although LFL SR trends are better at +3.2% y/y from +1.6% y/y, EBITDA is a touch slower at +3.4% y/y from +3.6% y/y. Headline growth rates are now though at the level of the mid-term guidance, (>4% 24-27 CAGR) supported by M&A.

Q2 in-line, solid as usual

Trends continue, valuation not too appealing

EBITDA +6% on ISS, MSR improvements

Expert speaker call: latent market share gains

Efficient delivery

Elisa (Hold, TP: EUR47.00) - Slightly soft revenue trends

The Q1 report was on the weak side, with slower Mobile Service revenue growth and limited International Software Services growth. We have made small negative revisions to our 2025–2026e revenues and reiterate our HOLD and EUR47 target price.

Elisa (Neutral, TP: €46, +5%) Q1 25: Weaker SR y/y, but better EBITDA...

Elisa has reported a slightly mixed set of results – SR has missed by -1.6%, but EBITDA is +0.9% ahead. LFL y/y EBITDA trends are better, but LFL y/y SR trends are slower, and that’s the rub: Elisa can’t seemingly grow EBITDA and SR at the same time, or more importantly EBITDA at faster rate than SR, but with good SR growth. Until that changes, or it beats expectations, it is unlikely to materially re-rate in our view, hence the Neutral rating.