Orange (Buy, TP: €14, +28%) Q1 24: Good results; French KPIs not a w...

Orange has reported a solid set of results, with EBITDA c+0.4% ahead of consensus. Guidance has all been reiterated, and cost synergy numbers for Spain have been lifted (with new additional revenue synergy numbers given, that are based on intra-company churn switching data, which makes it plausible some could be delivered in our view).

Orange Masmovil approval: A good outcome. A compliant EC? More M&A to ...

The EC has approved the Orange Masmovil merger (HERE) with remedies unchanged from the announcement in early December (HERE). We continue to be of the view that the remedy package is a good one for the operators in Spain, and indeed for the likelihood of further M&A in Europe.

Orange (Buy, TP: €14, +30%) Q4 23: Good results and guidance; positi...

Orange has reported a very solid set of results, with EBITDA c1.5% ahead of consensus for Q4. France guidance for 2024 EBITDA has been lifted, and overall Group guidance is in-line at EBITDA and 3% ahead at OCF. Ex energy, Group EBITDA is growing at >4%. Comments on the call about the Digi remedy package are very positive for European in-market consolidation in our view.

Iliad/Orange/Altice: Iliad launches new Freebox - Good for Iliad, good...

Iliad launched its new broadband box today: The Freebox Ultra (HERE). We provide our thoughts on the impact to Iliad and the French market in this short piece.

End of coverage

From 2nd January 2024, we will no longer include in our research universe:Telecom ItaliaOrangeDeutsche TelekomTelefonica

Remedy package signed in Spain: Not as bad as the headline would sugge...

The decision that we have all been waiting for has finally arrived. Orange Masmovil and Digi have reached an agreement for a remedy package in Spain. We provide our thoughts on the package in this piece. The headline “Digi buying spectrum” is bad, but we think that the reality and specifics of the package are nowhere near as bad as the headline would suggest.

Sub-Saharan African Telecoms Decent quarter in a challenging macro en...

Q3 was a decent quarter for Sub-Saharan African (SSA) operators. Fundamentals remain strong. We have updated forecasts post Q3 results, and our recommendations and target prices remain unchanged, except for Safaricom. AAF remains our preferred play in Africa.

The biggest decision you haven't heard of

While the Masmovil-Orange decision is probably the biggest upcoming decision you have heard of, the biggest decision for the European telecoms industry that most people haven’t heard of, is coming up next month at the World Radio Congress : the longer-term use for the 6.4-7.1GHz band in Europe.

Orange (Buy, TP: €14.0, +30%) Q3 23: Good delivery, EBITDA growth >3%...

Orange has reported a solid set of results, with results almost exactly in-line with consensus expectations at revenue and EBITDA. All guidance has been reiterated. In that regard, these results will not set the pulse racing but solid delivery is something we admire. Ex energy and FX, EBITDA is growing >3% y/y, which is pretty good, and means Orange is well on the way to reach medium-term EBITDA and FCF guidance as well as the nearer-term goals.

Feedback from RS with CFO: delivering the 2025 plan

Following the roadshow we hosted with the group's new CFO Laurent Martinez last week and our latest discussions ahead of Q3 results, we reaffirm our Buy conviction on the stock with an unchanged PT at EUR13, pointing to 18% upside. Laurent Martinez, who officially joined Orange in early September,

PROPRIETARY SURVEY: Spanish dynamics improving.... ...but all hinges ...

The Spanish market right now is in a period of great uncertainty, until we know the outcome of the Masmovil-Orange ruling and can gauge the impact of any remedies. To try to answer that, we recently published an in-depth note trying to recreate the EC’s analysis on GUPPI ratios, suggesting that the sale of sub-brands, most likely to Digi, should be an acceptable remedy (even if Digi is trying to ask for more), and this shouldn’t destabilise the market too much.

4-3 consolidation: Proprietary survey to match EC approach Orange-Mas...

In case you missed it from last week, we wanted to highlight a report we published looking in greater detail at the upcoming decision on Orange-Masmovil (likely due in September, albeit the clock has been currently stopped). While there will be qualitative factors at play in the final decision, the largest part of quantitative work the EC will do will be to assess the GUPPI ratio for the proposed merger through a consumer survey. In this note, we have undertaken our own proprietary survey to re...

CEO roadshow feedback: the right trend for H2

Following H1 results and the roadshow we hosted with the CEO and interim CFO of Orange last Thursday, we reaffirm our Buy conviction on the stock with an unchanged TP at EUR13, pointing to 25% upside. H1 2023 is not fully representative of the good trends ahead, and we remain very confident in the

Orange-Masmovil Proprietary survey suggests deal approval likelihood ...

Ahead of the September 4th anti-trust decision on the proposed Orange-Masmovil merger, we commissioned a survey in Spain to look into switching patterns in the event of a shutdown of current provider, so that we can work out diversion and GUPPI ratios for all the various Orange and Masmovil brands (this builds on and expands the work we did in March 2022, looking at a similar topic).

Orange (Buy, TP: €14.0, +30%) Q2 23: In-line at the group, but weak F...

Orange has reported an in-line set of Q2 numbers, but within the mix, France EBITDA is weak, and although this is offset by other high multiple businesses (Spain and ICSS), new language for H2 outlook in France implies a modest (c1.5%) cut to consensus France EBITDA for FY23. Group FY EBITDA guidance has been reiterated, implying the miss will be offset fully for the full year as well.

Sub-Saharan African Telecoms Resilient quarter; Small top line accele...

Sub-Saharan African (SSA) operators continue to benefit from strong fundamentals. There was a small acceleration in market service revenue growth in Q1 vs. Q4 and market EBITDA trends were sequentially stable.

Masmovil Q1 23: Better OpFCF, Orange deal update

As part of our expanding high yield coverage, we now have a full model and coverage of Masmovil (MM). We look at the latest quarterly trends in this report following the recent Q1 results, including feedback from the call. As a reminder, Orange CFO talked about Orange’s future plans for MM on the recent NDR roadshow we hosted – HERE.

Orange (Buy, TP: €14.0, +21%) CFO meeting notes - French pricing dyna...

We recently hosted Jean-Michel Thibaud, Orange Group Interim Executive VP Finance on a NDR in London. We provide meeting notes in this report.

Orange (Buy, TP: €14.0, +21%) Q1 23: Solid numbers, better SR trends ...

Orange has reported a solid set of Q1 numbers that are in-line with consensus expectations, and it has reiterated all guidance. Spanish SR growth is finally back in positive territory y/y (positive read-across for Telefonica, as ARPU is good (price increases landing)), and although France KPIs are weak, this is because the price increases have been communicated to customers as per the legal requirement in France; the increases have not as yet impacted the numbers, but despite this, y/y SR trends...

Bryan, Garnier & Co | Worldline, Temenos, Dassault Systèmes, Orange, S...