reports
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
M&A policy update – thoughts from Brussels and London with Pablo Asbo
It’s pretty clear that in-market M&A is a hot topic which we addressed in more detail in our recent sector M&A note. One of the reasons why speculation is rising about further deals is twofold we think: 1. Recent remedies in UK and Spain were non-intrusive in a historical context, making the deals attractive on a net basis; and 2. Politicians seem to be becoming more amenable to M&A, most notably Mario Draghi, and some are hoping that regulatory/legislative support will follow.
- Russell Waller
Orange (Buy, TP: €15.7, +35%) Altice France (SFR) (Most Preferred) Ili...
We were in Barcelona for the MWC this week. Please reach out if you would like to discuss any of the myriad of announcements made there. The biggest Telcos seemed to have focused their fire on in-market consolidation, with comments by the CEOs of Orange, DT and Telefonica.
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
Orange (Buy, TP: €15.1, +48%) Altice France (Most Preferred) Iliad (Eq...
Last week we reported in our tariff tracker, HERE, that some prices had risen in France. Since then, there have been further positive changes, including Iliad yesterday and Bouygues today, which we outline in this short report.
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
European Telecoms: The Year Ahead 2025 Ongoing regulatory support all...
2024 saw the best outperformance for the telecoms sector since 2013 (and the third best since 2000) and ironically this came in a year with one of the lowest announced M&A volumes. We believe this is a testament to improved perception of the underlying fundamentals.
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
EU TELECOMS REFRESH: Can the outperformance continue?
When was the last time we could write that the EU Telecoms sector has been the second best performing sector in the market YTD? As a result, this raises the question of whether the outperformance can continue. We believe regulation will ultimately determine the answer to this question.
- Chris Hoare
EMEA & African Telcos & Towers - High Yield Review – Initiate Coverage...
Following similar efforts in Europe and LatAm we are launching coverage on the HY Telcos & Towers in EMEA & Africa. New names under coverage include Helios (also initiated on equity, pt GBp140), Axian Telecom and Liquid Intelligent. We also address IHS Towers (pt cut to US$ 6), VEON and Helios’ bonds.
- Chris Hoare
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
Orange (Buy, TP: €14.3, +40%) Q2 24: EBITDAaL beat, some guidance upg...
Orange has reported a very solid set of results, with Telco EBITDA c+0.7% ahead of consensus. AME and Europe EBITDAaL guidance has been lifted, but Group EBITDAaL guidance has been left unchanged, as the delta in AME and Europe is not yet big enough to move the Group numbers.
- Russell Waller
Feedback from call with Orange IR on French pricing - back book increa...
We hosted a call with Orange IR to discuss the pricing environment. Watch a replay of the call HERE. We provide a summary of the call in this short piece. Interestingly, it looks as though SFR has lifted some of its back book prices for some of its customers.
- Chris Hoare
Sub-Saharan African Telecoms Solid top line, decent overall performan...
Q1 was a solid quarter for the Sub-Saharan African operators, especially from a top line perspective. Airtel Africa continued to outperform peers overall. We continue to think that fundamentals for AAF and MTN are strong and deserve more attention. Valuations are compelling too.
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
Orange (Buy, TP: €14, +47%) Altice France (SFR) - Most preferred Ilia...
There has been a lot of focus on the recent change in mobile price points from SFR/Bouygues. Orange has underperformed the CAC40 by c10% over the last 10 days. Most commentary we have seen, seems to worry that the move by SFR will start a new price war at the high end. We think that is probably not going to happen, and explain why in this report. That is good news for Orange, that looks oversold in our view.
- Russell Waller
Orange (Buy, TP: €14, +28%) Q1 24: Good results; French KPIs not a w...
Orange has reported a solid set of results, with EBITDA c+0.4% ahead of consensus. Guidance has all been reiterated, and cost synergy numbers for Spain have been lifted (with new additional revenue synergy numbers given, that are based on intra-company churn switching data, which makes it plausible some could be delivered in our view).
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
Orange Masmovil approval: A good outcome. A compliant EC? More M&A to ...
The EC has approved the Orange Masmovil merger (HERE) with remedies unchanged from the announcement in early December (HERE). We continue to be of the view that the remedy package is a good one for the operators in Spain, and indeed for the likelihood of further M&A in Europe.
- Russell Waller
Orange (Buy, TP: €14, +30%) Q4 23: Good results and guidance; positi...
Orange has reported a very solid set of results, with EBITDA c1.5% ahead of consensus for Q4. France guidance for 2024 EBITDA has been lifted, and overall Group guidance is in-line at EBITDA and 3% ahead at OCF. Ex energy, Group EBITDA is growing at >4%. Comments on the call about the Digi remedy package are very positive for European in-market consolidation in our view.
- Russell Waller
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