reports
- Charlotte Vaisse
- Jerôme Bodin
- Marc Lavaud
ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 10/18/2024
The recovery in growth in the IT & engineering services sector is undermined by the still mixed macroeconomic climate and the setbacks in the automotive and aerospace sectors. The improvement in sector momentum will therefore be minimal in H2 2024 with a growing decorrelation between the US which should be robust and a stagnating Europe. This leads us to adopt a more cautious approach on companies in our sector (revision to our 2025 growth estimates for 12 companies) and to prefer Acc...
- Charlotte Vaisse
- Christophe-Raphaël Ganet
- Maissa Keskes
- Marc Lavaud
- Stephane Houri
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 10/18/2024
The recovery in growth in the IT & engineering services sector is undermined by the still mixed macroeconomic climate and the setbacks in the automotive and aerospace sectors. The improvement in sector momentum will therefore be minimal in H2 2024 with a growing decorrelation between the US which should be robust and a stagnating Europe. This leads us to adopt a more cautious approach on companies in our sector (revision to our 2025 growth estimates for 12 companies) and to prefer Acc...
VIE VEOLIA ENVIRONNEMENT SA
CA CARREFOUR SA
VOLV B VOLVO AB CLASS B
RI PERNOD RICARD SA
FGR EIFFAGE SA
ABB ABB LTD.
HNR1 HANNOVER RUECK SE
SRT3 SARTORIUS AG PREF
NOKIA NOKIA OYJ
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
NESN NESTLE S.A.
SCHP SCHINDLER HOLDING AG PREF
SAN SANOFI
DIM SARTORIUS STEDIM BIOTECH SA
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
RACE FERRARI NV
VACN VAT GROUP AG
FDJ LA FRANCAISE DES JEUX SA
WDP WAREHOUSES DE PAUW SCA
ML COMPAGNIE GENERALE DES ETABLISSEMENTS MICHELIN
P911 DR. ING. H.C. F. PORSCHE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
- Charlotte Vaisse
- Jerôme Bodin
- Marc Lavaud
ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 18/10/2024
La reprise de la croissance du secteur IT & Engineering Services est mise à mal par un contexte macro toujours mitigé et par les déboires des secteurs Auto et Aéro. Ainsi, l’amélioration de la dynamique du secteur sera minimale au S2 2024 et probablement aussi au S1 2025, avec une décorrélation grandissante entre les US qui devraient être solides et une Europe stagnante. Ceci nous amène à adopter une approche plus prudente pour les sociétés de notre secteur (révision de croissance 202...
- Carole Braudeau
- Charlotte Vaisse
- Christophe-Raphaël Ganet
- Maissa Keskes
- Marc Lavaud
- Stephane Houri
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 18/10/2024
La reprise de la croissance du secteur IT & Engineering Services est mise à mal par un contexte macro toujours mitigé et par les déboires des secteurs Auto et Aéro. Ainsi, l’amélioration de la dynamique du secteur sera minimale au S2 2024 et probablement aussi au S1 2025, avec une décorrélation grandissante entre les US qui devraient être solides et une Europe stagnante. Ceci nous amène à adopter une approche plus prudente pour les sociétés de notre secteur (révision de croissance 202...
VIE VEOLIA ENVIRONNEMENT SA
CA CARREFOUR SA
VOLV B VOLVO AB CLASS B
RI PERNOD RICARD SA
FGR EIFFAGE SA
ABB ABB LTD.
HNR1 HANNOVER RUECK SE
SRT3 SARTORIUS AG PREF
NOKIA NOKIA OYJ
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
NESN NESTLE S.A.
SCHP SCHINDLER HOLDING AG PREF
SAN SANOFI
DIM SARTORIUS STEDIM BIOTECH SA
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
RACE FERRARI NV
VACN VAT GROUP AG
FDJ LA FRANCAISE DES JEUX SA
WDP WAREHOUSES DE PAUW SCA
ML COMPAGNIE GENERALE DES ETABLISSEMENTS MICHELIN
P911 DR. ING. H.C. F. PORSCHE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
- Wim Lewi
Warehouses De Pauw 3Q24 Results, Analyst Call Feedback
The share price has been under pressure lately and again today. However, we believe that the tone of the statement nor the contents differs much from previous statements. The market is now in a post-COVID consolidation phase. Especially in the consumer segment, the utilisation has dropped from >100% to 80% vs. a normal 90% as they are confronted with slower demand. We are at the end-of-cycle (post-COVID), WDP has to work harder to continue its growth. It has the balance sheet to execute its Blen...
- Carole Braudeau
- Robert Jan Vos
Basic-Fit N.V. : Q3 2024 in line with forecasts; membership price incr...
>Report on key items in line with our forecasts for Q3 2024 - Basic-Fit had 1,570 clubs open at the end of Q3 2024, which is four more clubs than our forecast. Memberships amounted to 4.20m, pretty much in line with our forecast of 4.22m memberships. Basic-Fit reported net revenue of € 307m in Q3 2024, a notch below our forecast of € 310m. The yield (average monthly revenue per member) came in at € 23.86, in line with our forecast of € 23.85. Basic-Fit said that membe...
- Roy Külter
- Steven Boumans
WDP : Q3 2024 results: Outlook reiterated with investments rising and ...
>Reiterated guidance, projects under development and pre-lettings declined - FY2024 EPRA EPS guidance reiterated at €1.47/sh.Fair value changes of +1.5% for 9M 2024 (H1 +1%), mainly due to latent capital gains on projects and recent acquisitions combined with a stable existing portfolio.Projects under development declined to €354m with a lower average 6.7% yield (H1 2024: €391m and 6.9% yield), while the total investment volume is growing to €600m at a 7% av...
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Basic-Fit: 3Q24 results strong, membership ingrowth ahead, on track to FY24 outlook. BE Semiconductor Industries: 3Q24 preview - a mixed picture. CM.com: 3Q24 trading update – in the right direction. Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC: No more pussyFTSEing around. Exor: Once-in-a-decade launch of Ferrari's next flagship supercar. Signify: 3Q24 Preview, prolonged market weakness. Staffing sector: Manpower 3Q24 results a slight miss, 4Q24 outlook weak and well below. WDP: Results in ...
- Guy Sips
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Wim Lewi
- Wim Lewi
Warehouses De Pauw 9m24 Results, executing Blend2027
EPRA EPS 9m24 came slightly above our expectation at EUR 1.09 vs. 1.07 exp. (Excl. 0.05 FBI). WDP repeated the FY24 EPRA EPS guidance of 1.47. The 5% expected EPRA EPS yoy growth is impressive as its average share count increased by 8%. The NIY is relatively stable at 5.4%, while development and acquisition gains increased the FV by 107.1m (+1.5%). The “Blend27” strategy was repeated with a guidance of 1.70 EPRA EPS by FY27. WDP will spend up to 1.5bn Capex and already identified 600m at a 7% GI...
- Lynn Hautekeete
Basic-Fit 3Q24 trading update: sacrificing pricing for growth
This morning Basic-Fit reported its 3Q24 trading update. The quarterly updates provide less information than last year. It has repeated the FY24 guidance given on all its KPI's apart from the average yield per member. Initially it was guided at EUR 24.50 vs EUR 24.25 now. The reason is the lower priced membership and discounts given to attract members. Hence the YTD membership growth is slightly above our expectations. As of FY25 there will again be a new membership structure in line with commun...
- Ahmed Ben Salem
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 10/17/2024
We measured the impact of the contribution from Michel Barnier’s exceptional tax on 88 stocks exposed to France. Some 17 of them would experience a (negative) impact on their EPS of more than 4% on average over 2024 and 2025: LDC (-8.3%), Synergie (-8%), Eiffage (-7.9%), ADP (-7.9%), Dassault Aviation (-7%), Crit (-6.9%), Derichebourg (-6.3%), Hermès (-5.6%), Safran (-5.6%), Bouygues (-5.6%), M6 (-5.2%), Thales (-5%), TF1 (-4.9%), Nexans (-4.9%), Vinci (-4.7%), Compagnie des Alpes (...
FP TOTAL SE
IPN IPSEN SA
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
ALFOC FOCUS HOME INTERACTIVE SA
AUTN AUTONEUM HOLDING AG
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
BFIT BASIC-FIT NV
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
KORI KORIAN SA
HCO HIGHCO SA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BLC BASTIDE LE CONFORT MEDICAL SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
VIRP VIRBAC SA
VETO VETOQUINOL SA
VLS VALNEVA SE
LNA LNA SANTE SA
GBT GUERBET SA
GLO GL EVENTS SA
KER KERING SA
ENI ENI S.P.A.
PNL POSTNL NV
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
REP REPSOL SA
TIETO TIETOEVRY OYJ
TECN TECAN GROUP AG
SLIGR SLIGRO FOOD GROUP N.V.
AALB AALBERTS N.V.
MONC MONCLER SPA
BEZ BERENTZEN GRUPPE
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
BP. BP P.L.C.
BIM BIOMERIEUX SA
S92 SMA SOLAR TECHNOLOGY AG
BAR BARCO NV
NA9 NAGARRO
SHEL SHELL PLC
EAPI EUROAPI
ORP ORPEA
- Ahmed Ben Salem
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 17/10/2024
Nous avons mesuré l’impact de la contribution exceptionnelle Barnier sur 88 valeurs exposées à la France. 17 d’entre elles auraient un impact (négatif) sur leurs BPA de plus de 4% en moyenne sur 2024 et 2025 : LDC (-8,3%), Synergie (-8%), Eiffage (-7,9%) ADP (-7,9%), Dassault Aviation (-7%), Crit (-6,9%), Derichebourg (-6,3%), Hermès (-5,6%), Safran (-5,6%), Bouygues (-5,6%), M6 (-5,2%), Thalès (-5%), TF1 (-4,9%), Nexans (-4,9%), Vinci (-4,7%), Compagnie des Alpes (-4,4%), FDJ (-4%). - ...
FP TOTAL SE
IPN IPSEN SA
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
ALFOC FOCUS HOME INTERACTIVE SA
AUTN AUTONEUM HOLDING AG
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
BFIT BASIC-FIT NV
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
KORI KORIAN SA
HCO HIGHCO SA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BLC BASTIDE LE CONFORT MEDICAL SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
VIRP VIRBAC SA
VETO VETOQUINOL SA
VLS VALNEVA SE
LNA LNA SANTE SA
GBT GUERBET SA
GLO GL EVENTS SA
KER KERING SA
ENI ENI S.P.A.
PNL POSTNL NV
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
REP REPSOL SA
TIETO TIETOEVRY OYJ
TECN TECAN GROUP AG
SLIGR SLIGRO FOOD GROUP N.V.
AALB AALBERTS N.V.
MONC MONCLER SPA
BEZ BERENTZEN GRUPPE
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
BP. BP P.L.C.
BIM BIOMERIEUX SA
S92 SMA SOLAR TECHNOLOGY AG
BAR BARCO NV
NA9 NAGARRO
SHEL SHELL PLC
EAPI EUROAPI
ORP ORPEA
- Robert Jan Vos
Basic-Fit N.V. : 14% growth in clubs/memberships, and 9% revenue growt...
>1,566 clubs, 4.219m memberships and revenue of € 310m forecast for Q3 - Basic-Fit is set to report its Q3 2024 trading update on 18 October at 07:30. We note that the updates for Q1 and Q3 address number of clubs, memberships, revenue and yield only. Furthermore, Basic-Fit does not host a conference call following its Q1 and Q3 updates. We forecast 1,566 clubs (+29 sequentially), memberships of 4.219m (+128,365), and revenue of € 310m. We expect Basic-Fit to reiterat...
- Christophe Chaput
- Florent Laroche-Joubert
- Steven Boumans
ODDO : The recovery is only beginning and the best is yet to come
The rate cut carried out and yet to come (ECB: -125bp to -150bp to come by end-2025e) is a real driver for listed real estate and creates the conditions enabling it to outperform. In this context, we are lifting 23 target prices for the 42 stocks covered. Covivio, CTP, Merlin Properties, URW, Vonovia and Xior Student Housing are now our Top Picks. Aedifica (Outperform vs Neutral) should also benefit. Lastly, we are lowering Care Property to Neutral and SFL to Underperform. - >...
COV COVIVIO SA
GFC GECINA SA
NXI NEXITY SA CLASS A
FLY SOCIETE FONCIERE LYONNAISE SA
GYC GRAND CITY PROPERTIES SA
MERY MERCIALYS SA
WHA WERELDHAVE N.V.
INTO INTERVEST OFFICES & WAREHOUSES SA
KOF KAUFMAN & BROAD SA
ALTA ALTAREA SCA
VNA VONOVIA SE
XIOR XIOR STUDENT HOUSING N.V.
ICAD ICADE SA
COFB COFINIMMO SA
VASTN VASTNED RETAIL NV
TEG TAG IMMOBILIEN AG
PSPN PSP SWISS PROPERTY AG
SPSN SWISS PRIME SITE AG
PAT PATRIZIA AG
MONT MONTEA SCA
AED AEDIFICA SA
CARM CARMILA SAS
LEG LEG IMMOBILIEN AG
CPINV CARE PROPERTY INVEST SA
ARG ARGAN SA
VGP VGP NV
COL INMOBILIARIA COLONIAL SOCIMI SA
DIC DIC ASSET AG
LRE LAR ESPANA REAL ESTATE SOCIMI SA
MERLIN MERLIN PROPERTIES SOCIMI S.A.
DKG DEUTSCHE KONSUM REIT-AG
HOME NEINOR HOMES SA
AT1 AROUNDTOWN SA
MVC METROVACESA SA
NSI NSI N.V.
ULA UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD SE STAPLED SECS CONS OF 1 SH UNIBAIL RODAMCO + 1 SH WFD UNIB ROD
INS INSTONE REAL ESTATE GROUP AG
AEDAS AEDAS HOMES SA
WDP WAREHOUSES DE PAUW SCA
ECMPA EUROCOMMERCIAL PROPERTIES NV
CTPNV CTP NV
SHUR SHURGARD SELF STORAGE LIMITED
- Christophe Chaput
- Florent Laroche-Joubert
- Steven Boumans
ODDO : La reprise ne fait que commencer et le meilleur est à venir
La baisse de taux actée et à venir (BCE : -125 à 150 pb à venir d’ici fin 2025e) agit comme un véritable catalyseur pour l’immobilier côté et crée les conditions lui permettant de surperformer. Dans ce cadre, nous relevons 23 objectifs de cours sur 42 valeurs suivies. Covivio, CTP, Merlin Properties, URW, Vonovia et Xior Student Housing constituent désormais nos top picks. Aedifica (Surperformance vs Neutre) devrait également en bénéficier. Enfin, nous abaissons Care Property à N...
COV COVIVIO SA
GFC GECINA SA
NXI NEXITY SA CLASS A
FLY SOCIETE FONCIERE LYONNAISE SA
GYC GRAND CITY PROPERTIES SA
MERY MERCIALYS SA
WHA WERELDHAVE N.V.
INTO INTERVEST OFFICES & WAREHOUSES SA
KOF KAUFMAN & BROAD SA
ALTA ALTAREA SCA
VNA VONOVIA SE
XIOR XIOR STUDENT HOUSING N.V.
ICAD ICADE SA
COFB COFINIMMO SA
VASTN VASTNED RETAIL NV
TEG TAG IMMOBILIEN AG
PSPN PSP SWISS PROPERTY AG
SPSN SWISS PRIME SITE AG
PAT PATRIZIA AG
MONT MONTEA SCA
AED AEDIFICA SA
CARM CARMILA SAS
LEG LEG IMMOBILIEN AG
CPINV CARE PROPERTY INVEST SA
ARG ARGAN SA
VGP VGP NV
COL INMOBILIARIA COLONIAL SOCIMI SA
DIC DIC ASSET AG
LRE LAR ESPANA REAL ESTATE SOCIMI SA
MERLIN MERLIN PROPERTIES SOCIMI S.A.
DKG DEUTSCHE KONSUM REIT-AG
HOME NEINOR HOMES SA
AT1 AROUNDTOWN SA
MVC METROVACESA SA
NSI NSI N.V.
ULA UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD SE STAPLED SECS CONS OF 1 SH UNIBAIL RODAMCO + 1 SH WFD UNIB ROD
INS INSTONE REAL ESTATE GROUP AG
AEDAS AEDAS HOMES SA
WDP WAREHOUSES DE PAUW SCA
ECMPA EUROCOMMERCIAL PROPERTIES NV
CTPNV CTP NV
SHUR SHURGARD SELF STORAGE LIMITED
- Robert Jan Vos
Basic-Fit N.V. : Expected short-term tapering to serve long-term growt...
We cut our target price on Basic-Fit to € 35 from € 37, and reiterate our Outperform. The TP cut is related to the possible early redemption of the convertible bond, and the refinancing this may trigger. As a result (in order to optimise financial leverage), we expect a deceleration in club openings, which the market may not like initially. That said, Basic-Fit’s valuation remains very compelling. - >Convertible bondholders could request early redemption in 2026 - In...
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