HEADLINES: • Wizz Air: 4Q FY25 – core numbers in line with our estimates, but weaker than the consensus • CEZ: KHNP, government and CEZ sign EDU II deal POSITIVE • Poland macro: NBP on hold • Jumbo: May sales growth picks up speed to a strong 12%; declares EUR 0.50/share dividend POSITIVE • Titan: signs MOA with Carbon Upcycling to develop low-carbon construction materials POSITIVE • PCF Group: decision to reduce project Bifrost development team • Mavi: 1Q25E earnings preview (due on 10 June)
EME Equity Market – May 2025 EME indices mostly in the green in May, apart from Türkiye. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 3.6% mom in EUR and USD terms. The Greek ASE index (+7.8% mom) was the best performer, followed by the Czech PX (+6.6% mom) and Romanian BET indices (+5.0% mom), the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom) and the Polish WIG20 (+2.0% mom; all in EUR terms). The Turkish ISE30 Index was, again, the worst performer, with a more modest decline (-1.4% mom in EUR terms) this time.
HEADLINES: • Erste Bank Group: smart leverage, strong thesis (stays BUY) • Santander Bank Polska: no such thing as plug and play in M&A (downgraded to HOLD) • EME Macro/Strategy: CIS plus – a good growth juncture, amid global policy shifts • PCF Group: 1Q25 results miss expectations, on lower portion of costs being capitalised NEGATIVE • Echo Investment (HOLD, PT PLN 3.1): 1Q25 – only a handful of deliveries means a weak P&L • Duna House: 1Q25 results– first look positive POSITIVE • DataWalk: ke...
HEADLINES: • Polish food retail: turning the corner (initiating on Zabka with a BUY, Eurocash and Jeronimo stay BUY, Dino stays SELL) • Benefit Systems: 1Q25 adjusted EBIT up 14% yoy, 10% above our forecast POSITIVE • Grupa Pracuj: 1Q25 results – adjusted EBITDA up 11% yoy, in line with our forecast, 4% above the consensus POSITIVE • Wirtualna Polska: 1Q25 results review – adjusted EBITDA up 2% yoy, 2% above the consensus NEUTRAL • Athens Exchange Group: 1Q25 results in line with expectations NE...
We believe that, after the price war-impacted 2024 and the seasonally-challenged 1Q25, Polish grocers should enjoy Easter-supported demand and a leap in the VAT hike in 2Q25E. In our view, the Polish consumer has matured, following the tough experience of the pandemic, and the inflation bubble that followed. With a propensity to consume no longer close to 100%, we see the rollout-led growth as more tangible than pure lfl expansion. Within the high-growth names, we prefer Żabka (initiation with a...
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has today affirmed the Baa1/(P)Baa1 senior unsecured debt/senior unsecured MTN program ratings of CEZ, a.s. (CEZ) and the baa2 Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA). At the same time, we have changed the outlook to positive from negative. RATINGS RATIONALE On 28 April [1], C...
HEADLINES: • VIGO Photonics: top Polish defence industry exposure (downgraded to HOLD) • PGE: strong 1Q25 recurring EBITDA, 26% above our expectations POSITIVE • 11 bit studios: weak 1Q25, misses our forecast, on higher opex NEGATIVE • Dino: 2-7% EBITDA beats in 1Q25 NEUTRAL • Krka: 1Q25 – record net profit, on high FX revaluation gains POSITIVE • GEVORKYAN: strong 1Q25 - EBITDA 15% above our expectations, but 2025E guidance implies an EBITDA margin contraction POSITIVE • HELLENiQ Energy: 1Q25 r...
HEADLINES: • PZU: solid 1Q25 results, ahead of the market's expectations; some upside risk for2025E EPS forecasts POSITIVE • CEZ: 1Q25 beat on distribution and sales segments, disposal of Polish assets POSITIVE • Eurocash: 1Q25 – weak, as expected NEGATIVE • Warsaw Stock Exchange: strong 1Q25, with a significant net income beat POSITIVE • Sphera Group: 1Q25 softer than expected; FY25E budget below our forecasts NEGATIVE • Banca Transilvania: bottom-line miss, due mainly to asset quality deterior...
HEADLINES: • Optima Bank: a touch of Midas, none of Icarus (BUY - initiation of coverage) • PKO BP: solid 1Q25 results, in line with expectations NEUTRAL • Sok Marketler Ticaret: 1Q25 results – significant miss NEGATIVE • Richter: 1Q25 results in line NEUTRAL • Arabian Drilling: 1Q25 results NEUTRAL • Tauron: 1Q25 preliminary EBITDA 16% above our expectations POSITIVE • Kaspi.kz: 1Q25 highlights; 2025E guidance revised down NEGATIVE • Bank of Cyprus: 1Q25 results highlights • Zabka (NOT RATED): ...
HEADLINES: • Bank Millennium: solid, but neutral, set of 1Q25 results; FX mortgage saga still eating material part of profits • Jahez: mixed 1Q25 results, affected by seasonality and intensified competition NEGATIVE • CCC: preliminary 1Q25 EBITDA beats expectations by 2-8%, on FX differences NEUTRAL • Auto Partner: April sales growth slows down to 5% yoy NEGATIVE • Inter Cars: April sales growth decelerates to 6% yoy NEGATIVE • Richter: Trump promises 30-80% cuts in US drug prices NEGATIVE • For...
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