Atlas Copco’s Q1 report impressed with a solid order beat and guidance that implies our estimates and consensus for orders are too low for the rest of 2024e. We view the comments on the semiconductor industry as cautiously optimistic. We have raised our 2024–2026e adj. EBIT by 5–7% and our target price to SEK195 (185), but reiterate our HOLD as the valuation looks full in our view at a 2024e EV/EBIT of 22.5x.
We are 2% above consensus on Q1 orders, 1% above on sales and in line on adjusted EBIT. We expect the guidance to be for unchanged demand into Q2 and for comments that management has not yet seen any improvement in demand from the semiconductor industry. Although our deviation versus consensus for Q1 is negligible on the group level, we find the margin assumptions for VT somewhat optimistic. We have raised our adjusted EBIT by 4% on average for 2024–2026e. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised o...
Completion of the combination between Novozymes and Chr. Hansen January 29, 2024 – Company announcement no. 2 Please see attachment. CONTACT INFORMATION Investor Relations Tobias Cornelius Bjorklund Anders Enevoldsen Press Relations Lina Danstrup Attachment
All necessary regulatory approvals have been obtained for the combination of Novozymes and Chr. Hansen January 26, 2024 – Company announcement no. 1 Please see attachment. Contact information Investor RelationsDisa Tuominen Press RelationsSanne Seyer-Hansen Attachment
Weak Q4 order intake, the downside risk that the guidance implies to consensus Q1e orders, and management’s comments that there is still no demand recovery in sight near-term from semiconductor customers are hurting sentiment towards the stock. We have raised our 2024–2025e adj. EBIT by c2%, as we expect backlog support and solid margin progression, but believe the full valuation (2024e EV/EBIT of 20.8x) caps the upside potential. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to SEK175 ...
We forecast Chr. Hansen to reach the high end of its 2023 guidance of 10–12% organic revenue growth and a 26–27% EBIT margin, but expect the combined entity (Novonesis) to issue a new guidance upon completion of the merger. As Chr. Hansen shareholders are set to receive 1.5236 new B-shares in Novonesis, the changes in our Novozymes model translate into a raised Chr. Hansen target price of DKK582 (536), and we have thus downgraded to HOLD (BUY).
Update on the merger approval process for the combination of Novozymes and Chr. Hansen: South Korean merger approval granted December 20, 2023 Please see attachment. Contact information Investor RelationsDisa Tuominen Press RelationsSanne Seyer-Hansen Attachment
Major shareholder announcement from Burlington Loan Management DAC December 19, 2023 – Company announcement no. 12 Please see attachment. Contact information Investor RelationsDisa Tuominen Press RelationsSanne Seyer-Hansen About Chr. Hansen Chr. Hansen is a global, differentiated bioscience company that develops natural ingredient solutions for the food, nutritional, pharmaceutical and agricultural industries. At Chr. Hansen, we are strongly positioned to drive positive change through microbial solutions. We have worked for over 145 years to enable s...
Update on the merger approval process for the combination of Novozymes and Chr. Hansen: Conditional competition clearance from the European Commission obtained December 12, 2023 Please see attachment. Contact information Investor RelationsDisa Tuominen Press RelationsSanne Seyer-Hansen Attachment
Although the risk/reward seems lacklustre and the stock is pricing in a rather upbeat semiconductor market for 2024 in our view, we do not believe the valuation alone is a good enough reason to turn negative on the stock. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to SEK170 (145), despite cutting our 2024–2025e sales and adj. EBIT by 5–4% (on FX changes), with our target price assuming a lofty 2-year forward EV/EBIT of 21x (was 17x).
Update on the merger approval process for the combination of Novozymes and Chr. Hansen: The parties have submitted a remedy proposal to the European Commission. November 20, 2023 Please see attachment. Contact information Investor RelationsAnders Mohr Christensen Press RelationsSanne Seyer-Hansen Attachment
Our analysis of underlying total shareholder return (TSR) drivers for Swedish Industrial companies reveals that high returns are not synonymous with high valuations. Investors tend to overpay for ‘growth’, while cash returns such as dividends and buybacks are typically deeply discounted. We believe Autoliv, Alfa Laval and Hexagon offer the most long-term TSR potential (13–14% annualised), with SKF and Trelleborg at the other end of the spectrum (8–9%), while also concluding that several stocks l...
Managers' Transaction November 2, 2023 - Announcement No. 11 Vesting of restricted share units Chr. Hansen Holding A/S has received notification pursuant to article 19 of regulation (EU) no. 596/2014 of the below transactions related to shares in Chr. Hansen Holding A/S made by persons discharging managerial responsibilities in Chr. Hansen Holding A/S and/or persons closely related with them. Please see attachment. For further information please contact: Anders Mohr Christensen, Vice President Group Strategy & Investor Relations, Tel: Disa Tuominen, Investor Relation...
Q3 impressed with strong margins across all divisions and, despite the guidance for weaker demand in Q4, we see limited near-term risk, as consensus was already for a slowdown in orders. For 2024e, we believe there could be some downside risk to consensus orders, although given the large backlog, we see limited risk to sales and earnings estimates. We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to SEK145 (150).
Managers' Transactions October 13, 2023 - Announcement No. 10 Vesting of shares Chr. Hansen Holding A/S has received notification pursuant to article 19 of regulation (EU) no. 596/2014 of the below transactions related to shares in Chr. Hansen Holding A/S made by persons discharging managerial responsibilities in Chr. Hansen Holding A/S and/or persons closely related with them. Please see attachment. For further information please contact: Anders Mohr Christensen, Vice President Group Strategy & Investor Relations, Tel: Disa Tuominen, Investor ...
Q4 organic revenue growth was strong at 16% YOY, with c9%-points driven by volumes and c7%-points by pricing, supported by order timing. The 2023 calendar year organic revenue growth guidance was raised to 10–12%, indicating c7% organic growth for the remaining four months of the year. The announcement earlier this week about NewCo’s organisational structure strengthened our confidence in the merger with Novozymes closing by end-2023. We reiterate our BUY and DKK536 target price.
Chr. Hansen Holding A/S Interim Report Q4 2022/23 October 12, 2023 – Company announcement no. 9 Strong performance for the quarter despite a challenging environment Statement by CEO Mauricio Graber: “Supported by a strong Q4 performance, Chr. Hansen delivered a solid result for the first twelve months of the extended financial year 2022/23 at the upper end of our guidance with 11% organic revenue growth and an EBIT margin b.s.i. of 26.9%. Throughout the year, we have demonstrated the attractiveness of the markets we serve and the resilience of our business model, supported by a robu...
Novozymes announce the Executive Leadership Team and organizational structure for the future combined company of Novozymes and Chr. Hansen October 10, 2023 Please see attachment. Contact information Investor RelationsAnders Mohr Christensen Press RelationsSanne Seyer-Hansen Attachment
Merger benefits on the horizon The merger limbo and destocking across the peer group has hampered the share price, while its financial performance remains strong. For the pending merger with Novozymes (NewCo), we are confident in the 2025 organic growth and EBIT margin targets, and forecast higher potential beyond 2025, driven by HMO and APS. On our forecast for strong Q4 results, we have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) and reiterate our DKK536 target price.
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