Novo Nordisk AS: 1 director

A director at Novo Nordisk AS sold 40,000 shares at 450.528DKK and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clear...

Zealand Pharma (Buy, TP: DKK950.00) - Dapiglutide likely next catalyst

Q1 revenue missed expectations on lower reimbursement revenue, while operating profit was a beat, as opex was below our forecast and consensus. The 2025 guidance was maintained for opex of DKK2,000m–2,500m. We believe the next potential share-price catalyst is the top-line results from the phase Ib dapiglutide trial in Q2e. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to DKK950 (1,000).

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK900.00) - Accelerated Wegovy roll-out ahead

Q1 LCY figures beat our forecasts, while the 2025 guidance was cut to 13–21% LCY sales growth YOY and 16–24% LCY operating profit growth YOY due to weaker GLP-1 sales. We have lowered our rebate for US Ozempic but maintain our 52% Wegovy rebate (in line with the Q1 rebate when adjusting for de-stocking). We reiterate our BUY and DKK900 target price.

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK900.00) - Underlying soft GLP-1 sales

We forecast a soft Q1, with 17.3% LCY sales growth and 13.8% LCY operating profit growth due to subdued prescriptions. While we estimate Ozempic sales c0.5% below consensus, we are c1.2% above for Wegovy, as we include DKK1bn in sales related to Wegovy US inventories. We see likely relief from potential unchanged 2025 LCY guidance, supported by improved Wegovy supply and fading pressure from compounders. We reiterate our BUY and DKK900 target price.

Zealand Pharma (Buy, TP: DKK1000.00) - Focus on pipeline progression

We expect an uneventful Q1 report, with investor focus on top-line results from the dapiglutide phase Ib obesity trial (due in Q2), which could help provide clarity on the positioning of the molecule in obesity and inflammation. For petrelintide, we have reduced our peak sales forecast to cUSD10.0bn (cUSD10.8bn) on increased competition from GUBamy. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to DKK1,000 (1,150).

Telia Company (Buy, TP: SEK39.00) - On track towards full-year targets

Telia reported a solid Q1, with 1.8% service revenue growth YOY, 6.7% EBITDA growth, and SEK1.7bn in FCF. The performance strengthens our view that Telia can reach its full-year targets. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK39 (38.5).

Telia Company AB: 2 directors

Two Directors at Telia Company AB bought 36,000 shares at between 35.430SEK and 35.750SEK. The significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over t...

Good Q1, but heading for deceleration

Telia (Neutral, TP: SEK 37, +5%) Q1 25: Impressive EBITDA acceleratio...

Telia has reported a good set of results, with SR, EBITDA, capex and all-in FCF all better than consensus expectations. The company sounded a note of caution on the call that Q1 Group trends were better than we should expect for the full year; having EBITDA and FCF in the bag already is a good thing, but full year guidance has been reiterated not raised.

Small adj. EBITDA beat, unchanged guidance

Heads-up for report 24 April

Telia Company (Buy, TP: SEK38.50) - Cost reductions visible in Q1e

Telia’s Q1 report is due at 07:00 CET on 24 April. Due to a changed reporting structure, there is no meaningful consensus. However, we believe our forecast will be about in-line with an updated consensus. We see an acceleration of EBITDA growth to >5% following a personnel reduction. We reiterate our BUY and raise the target price to SEK38.50 (38).

Revised estimates due to divisional split

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK900.00) - Subdued prescription growth in Q1

We have updated our model with the latest IQVIA data, and see downside risk to Visible Alpha consensus. We see Q1e global sales for Wegovy of DKK17,898m (c2.2% below consensus) and Ozempic of DKK31,642m (c1.5% below consensus). While a reaffirmation of guidance could offer relief, we have lowered our target price, primarily on lower-than-expected GLP-1 sales. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to DKK900 (1,040).

Improving cash flows, but still pricey

Savings to boost solid EBITDA growth

TMT hybrids offer good value/Look for quality in the belly of the curv...

In this report we evaluate spreads in the TMT hybrids space. As the credit space still looks relatively well bid, TMT hybrid yields offer an attractive opportunity with yields above 3.5%. Higher quality TMT hybrids or lower duration TMT hybrids look most attractive from a relative value standpoint, such as the Telia, Orange and KPN hybrids. The risk/return perspective of the Infineon hybrid note looks unattractive.

Zealand Pharma (Buy, TP: DKK1150.00) - Deal delivery

We are positive on the partnership with Roche for petrelintide and view the financial terms as favourable for Zealand Pharma. While we had included Roche as the partner for petrelintide in our base case, the deal terms are better than we assumed. Thus, we have updated our valuation for petrelintide to DKK731 NPV/share. We reiterate our BUY and have increased our target price to DKK1,150 (1,010), based on our SOTP NPV.

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Utilities - UK power bills to rise by 6% in April

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