HEADLINES: • Georgia Capital: multi-sector story (BUY - transfer of coverage) • BIM: solid operating results overshadowed by bottom-line miss in 2Q25 NEUTRAL • Sok Marketler Ticaret: bottom line misses expectations in 2Q25 NEGATIVE • Kalekim: 2Q25 – strong set of results POSITIVE • Aquila Part Prod Com S.A.: 2Q25 – eyeing +6% EBITDA margin for 2H25E POSITIVE • Romgaz: 2Q25 results – better than our forecasts POSITIVE • Romania macro: GDP heading into a tough 2H • DIGI Communications: key takeawa...
We transfer coverage of Georgia Capital, with a BUY and a price target (PT) of GBP 30.1/share, 29% upside from the current levels. Georgia Capital is a Tbilisi-based investment holding company, which holds an 18% stake in Lion Finance Group (48% of the group’s NAV), as well as a number of private assets (52% of the group’s NAV), with a focus on the healthcare, pharmacy, insurance and education industries. Georgia Capital targets capital-light, scalable businesses, with high cash-generation poten...
HEADLINES: • Solutions by STC: balance of risks to the upside (upgraded to BUY) • TBC Bank: 2Q25 results and conference call highlights • Al Arabia Outdoor Advertising: weak 2Q25 financial results NEGATIVE • Jahez: weak 2Q25 financial results, with significant pressure on the EBITDA margin NEGATIVE • Inter Cars: July sales growth accelerates marginally, to 11% yoy NEUTRAL • Austriacard: 1H25E earnings preview (due on 28 August)
TBC has announced GEL 346m in net income (before minorities) for 2Q25, up 8% qoq and 5% yoy. This was 1% lower than our EUR 348m estimate and 3% lower than the GEL 358m consensus. The group-level results were in line, supported by an 8% beat in Georgia (GE), driven by a 40bps qoq NIM expansion and the NII coming in 8% above our estimate. That said, our overall bias on 2Q25 is negative, due to a significant 44% earnings miss in Uzbekistan (UZ) (our forecast at GEL 58m, vs. the GEL 32m actual UZ n...
HEADLINES: • Bank Pekao: strong 2Q25 delivery reaffirms our FY25E net profit forecast of c. PLN 7bn, still ahead of the market consensus NEUTRAL • Magyar Telekom: 2Q25 results review – EBITDA up 13% yoy, 3% above the consensus; 2025E guidance upgraded POSITIVE • Akcansa: weak 2Q25 financial results, with signs of recovery NEGATIVE • Teknosa: 2Q25 results – recovery in the operating performance overshadowed by losses on the bottom line NEUTRAL • Brisa: 2Q25 results in line, very much like 1Q25 NE...
EME Equity Market – July 2025 EME indices all in the green in July. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 6.0% mom in EUR terms and 3.0% in USD terms. The Turkish ISE30 was, once again, the top performer, adding 7.9% mom in EUR terms, followed very closely by the Romanian BET, advancing 7.8% mom in EUR terms. The Greek ASE added 6.8% mom in EUR terms, while the Czech PX added 4.5% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX and Polish WIG20 added 3.6% and 3.0% mom, respectively, in EUR terms.
HEADLINES: • TBC Bank: good run, approaching fair value (downgraded to HOLD) • Krka: preliminary 2Q25 numbers – a mixed bag NEUTRAL • GEK Terna: 50/50 JV with Motor Oil Hellas over their electricity supply and gas-fired power generation activities POSITIVE • DO & CO: EUR 2.00/share dividend approved, in line with our estimate NEUTRAL • OTE: 2Q25E results preview – 2% yoy adjusted EBITDA growth expected (due on 6 August)
We have downgraded TBC to HOLD (from Buy). Our valuation indicates 9% upside and 2025E target multiples of 7.5x P/E and 1.9x P/TBV from these levels (vs. the 6.9x and 1.7x market multiples). Our new price target (PT) is GBP 53.1 (from GBP 38.0). TBC’s stock has returned 93% in the past 12 months in USD terms, including reinvested dividends (and 682% in the past five years). A year ago, the bank was trading at 3.9x P/E and 1.1x P/TBV on our 2025E numbers, vs. 6.9x P/E and 1.7x P/TBV today. This p...
HEADLINES: • Romania macro: discussing a new fiscal package with the EU • Romanian banks: government to increase tax on gross revenues to 4% NEGATIVE • EME Macro/Strategy – Poland: bigger, happier but also more divided • Poland macro: MPC reduces the policy rate by 25bps • Text: 1Q25-26 (calendar 2Q25) preliminary results – MRR of USD 7.17m (up 0.7% qoq, up 1.4% yoy); 928 net LiveChat customers outflow NEGATIVE • Mo-BRUK: guiding for PLN 33m outflow related to the 2018-19 increased fees; PLN 50-...
EME Equity Market – June 2025 All EME indices in the green in June, with a rebound in Türkiye. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 3.2% mom in EUR terms and 6.9% in USD terms. The Turkish ISE 30 Index was the best performer in our region, recouping the losses from the previous month and adding +6.6% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX and the Polish WIG indices added 3.1% and 2.8% mom in EUR terms, respectively, followed closely by the Romanian BET and the Greek ASE, with both adding 2.0% mom i...
A director at PKP Cargo S.A. bought 1,016 shares at 15.940PLN and the significance rating of the trade was 50/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly...
HEADLINES: • Polish banks: Finance Ministry mulls levy on obligatory reserve interest revenues NEGATIVE • Georgia Capital: sells 20% stake in water utility for USD 70.4m POSITIVE • Czech Republic macro: CNB on hold • InPost/Shoper: InPost Pay records 8.5m users, and operates in over 2.5k online stores NEUTRAL • Metlen: launches tender share exchange offer from Metlen SA to Metlen PLC, as part of the planned LSE listing NEUTRAL
In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Boparan, Pfleiderer, Alain Afflelou, Novelis, Bombardier, Altice France (SFR), Vedanta Resources, Softbank Group, Tereos, Air Baltic, Benteler International, Tullow Oil
EME Equity Market – May 2025 EME indices mostly in the green in May, apart from Türkiye. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 3.6% mom in EUR and USD terms. The Greek ASE index (+7.8% mom) was the best performer, followed by the Czech PX (+6.6% mom) and Romanian BET indices (+5.0% mom), the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom) and the Polish WIG20 (+2.0% mom; all in EUR terms). The Turkish ISE30 Index was, again, the worst performer, with a more modest decline (-1.4% mom in EUR terms) this time.
In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: PeopleCert, Profine, Pfleiderer, Multiversity, Flos B&B Italia (formerly International Design Group), Omnia Technologies, Biofarma, Crown Holdings, Mooney (formerly SisalPay), Pasubio, Standard Profil, AMS Osram, Novelis
The Europe HY Trade Book for May 2025 includes current trade recommendations drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry. We also discuss the US tariff situation and key related impacts.
Pfleiderer has released poor FY 2024 results, with net leverage increasing 4.0x y-o-y to 9.1x. Positively, the numbers (excluding electricity hedging) improved slightly in Q4 as the business started stabilising, albeit at low levels. Looking ahead, we anticipate a gradual recovery, supported by cost-saving initiatives and a (slow) market recovery. We maintain our "Buy" recommendation for investors with a high degree of risk tolerance.
HEADLINES: • BIM: weak results in 1Q25 NEGATIVE • MOL: 1Q25 results – strong EBITDA, big net income beat POSITIVE • OTP Bank: neutral 1Q25 results, but supported strongly by Russian operations NEUTRAL • AmRest: 1Q25 below expectations, due to EUR 5m negative one-off NEUTRAL • NLB Group: small bottom-line miss in 1Q25, but guidance maintained NEUTRAL • National Bank of Greece: 1Q25 highlights POSITIVE • Eurobank Ergasias Services: 1Q25 highlights NEUTRAL • Alpha Services and Holdings: 1Q25 highli...
TBC has reported 1Q25 net income of GEL 318m, falling 14% short of our estimate (GEL 372m) and 10% below the consensus forecast of GEL 352m. Total revenues missed our estimate by 5%. There was a small GEL 11m NII miss that was mitigated by a GEL 8m beat in fees. Trading and other income was 25% below expectations; however, this line is typically volatile. The more material and complex deviation was in provisions, which came in at GEL 118m vs. our GEL 83m expectation. The miss was related to a GE...
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