HEADLINES: • Polish banks: Finance Ministry mulls levy on obligatory reserve interest revenues NEGATIVE • Georgia Capital: sells 20% stake in water utility for USD 70.4m POSITIVE • Czech Republic macro: CNB on hold • InPost/Shoper: InPost Pay records 8.5m users, and operates in over 2.5k online stores NEUTRAL • Metlen: launches tender share exchange offer from Metlen SA to Metlen PLC, as part of the planned LSE listing NEUTRAL
In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Boparan, Pfleiderer, Alain Afflelou, Novelis, Bombardier, Altice France (SFR), Vedanta Resources, Softbank Group, Tereos, Air Baltic, Benteler International, Tullow Oil
EME Equity Market – May 2025 EME indices mostly in the green in May, apart from Türkiye. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 3.6% mom in EUR and USD terms. The Greek ASE index (+7.8% mom) was the best performer, followed by the Czech PX (+6.6% mom) and Romanian BET indices (+5.0% mom), the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom) and the Polish WIG20 (+2.0% mom; all in EUR terms). The Turkish ISE30 Index was, again, the worst performer, with a more modest decline (-1.4% mom in EUR terms) this time.
In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: PeopleCert, Profine, Pfleiderer, Multiversity, Flos B&B Italia (formerly International Design Group), Omnia Technologies, Biofarma, Crown Holdings, Mooney (formerly SisalPay), Pasubio, Standard Profil, AMS Osram, Novelis
The Europe HY Trade Book for May 2025 includes current trade recommendations drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry. We also discuss the US tariff situation and key related impacts.
Pfleiderer has released poor FY 2024 results, with net leverage increasing 4.0x y-o-y to 9.1x. Positively, the numbers (excluding electricity hedging) improved slightly in Q4 as the business started stabilising, albeit at low levels. Looking ahead, we anticipate a gradual recovery, supported by cost-saving initiatives and a (slow) market recovery. We maintain our "Buy" recommendation for investors with a high degree of risk tolerance.
HEADLINES: • BIM: weak results in 1Q25 NEGATIVE • MOL: 1Q25 results – strong EBITDA, big net income beat POSITIVE • OTP Bank: neutral 1Q25 results, but supported strongly by Russian operations NEUTRAL • AmRest: 1Q25 below expectations, due to EUR 5m negative one-off NEUTRAL • NLB Group: small bottom-line miss in 1Q25, but guidance maintained NEUTRAL • National Bank of Greece: 1Q25 highlights POSITIVE • Eurobank Ergasias Services: 1Q25 highlights NEUTRAL • Alpha Services and Holdings: 1Q25 highli...
TBC has reported 1Q25 net income of GEL 318m, falling 14% short of our estimate (GEL 372m) and 10% below the consensus forecast of GEL 352m. Total revenues missed our estimate by 5%. There was a small GEL 11m NII miss that was mitigated by a GEL 8m beat in fees. Trading and other income was 25% below expectations; however, this line is typically volatile. The more material and complex deviation was in provisions, which came in at GEL 118m vs. our GEL 83m expectation. The miss was related to a GE...
HEADLINES: • ING BSK: 1Q25 results in line with expectations and our annual 2025E expectations NEUTRAL • Jeronimo Martins: beat in 1Q25; Biedronka margin stabilised, despite adverse calendar effect; FY25E guidance maintained POSITIVE • Bank Handlowy: dull 1Q25 results; dividend recommendation due later in May; uncertainty over impact of sale of retail operations persisting NEUTRAL • Budimex: 1Q25 EBITDA misses forecast slightly, backlog down marginally qoq, but rising amount of pending contracts...
In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: AMS Osram, Nexans, Lowell, Aston Martin, Constellium, Pfleiderer, Loewen Play, Pasubio, Motel One, Synthomer, Ineos Quattro, Air France-KLM, Tele Columbus, Selecta, Progroup, SIG plc, Modulaire, Hapag-Lloyd, Adler Pelzer, International Personal Finance, Stena AB, Standard Profil, Bombardier, Ontex, Vedanta Resources, Cirsa
EME Equity Market – February 2025 Poland outperforms, again; Türkiye declines. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 3.1% in EUR terms and 2.9% mom in USD terms in February. The Polish WIG20 was, once again, the best performer, adding 7.3% mom in February; followed by the Czech PX Index (+6.1% mom); while Greece (+3.8% mom), Hungary (+3.5% mom) and Romania (+3.0% mom) all reported rather similar performances. The Turkish ISE30 was the worst performer, declining 4.5% mom.
HEADLINES: • Piraeus Financial Holdings: 4Q24 results and medium-term guidance highlights • Kaspi.kz: 4Q24 results highlights and 2025E guidance NEUTRAL • Georgia Capital: 4Q24 NAV and earnings call takeaways NEUTRAL • Solutions by STC: 4Q24 conference call takeaways POSITIVE • Hungary macro: election campaign is heating up • Romania macro: January budget deficit brings more headaches • HELLENiQ Energy: 4Q24E preview (due on 27 February) NEUTRAL • Orlen: 4Q24E results preview (due on 27 February...
Following the acceleration of a potential peace deal in Ukraine, Georgian assets have been among the top performers over the past month, reflecting the market’s optimism over the possible ceasefire or deal between Russia and the United States. From 21 January until today (18 February), Bank of Georgia (BUY, PT GBP 52.3) has gained 17%, while TBC Bank (BUY, PT GBP 38.0) has surged by 32%, outperforming the broader EM banks significantly and even the Polish WIG banks. While the market appears to b...
HEADLINES: • MOL: there’s gain in the mundane (stays BUY) • Tofas: very weak set of results in 4Q24 NEGATIVE • Orange Polska: 4Q24 – EBITDAaL up 7% yoy, 6% above the consensus; 2025E guidance in line with expectations POSITIVE • ADNOC Drilling: 4Q24 results beat expectations POSITIVE • TBC Bank: 4Q24 results and conference call • Isbank: 4Q24 results and 2025E guidance highlights NEUTRAL • Medicover: takeaways from the 4Q24 earnings call • 11 bit studios: delays release of The Alters NEGATIVE • ...
TBC has announced GEL 335m in net income for 4Q24. Before the one-off write-down of its Azerbaijan business, which is now held for sale, the net income stood at GEL 344m. The net income consensus was at GEL 325m (a 3% beat in reported and a 6% beat in adjusted terms), while our forecast was at GEL 317m (a 6% beat in reported and an 8% beat in adjusted terms). The beat was related mainly to the trading income (up 64% yoy in 4Q and +37% yoy in 12M24), as well as the somewhat lower than expected CO...
EME Equity Market – January 2025 The markets entered 2025 on the right foot. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 7.7% in EUR terms and 8.4% in USD terms in January. The Polish WIG20 was the best performer (+12.7% mom), followed by the Hungarian BUX and Czech PX indices (+8.9% mom and +6.2% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). There was also a very solid performance from the Greek ASE Index (+5.4% mom in EUR terms), but more muted performances from the Romanian BET and Turkish ISE 30 indices (+1.6%...
In this publication, we review the past year and discuss our outlook for the next 12 months. We begin our discussion with the macro factors at play, including GDP forecasts, the geopolitical landscape and our expectations for cost inflation. We also trace the development of primary markets in the European HY space, and give our view on defaults in general as well as for our coverage universe. We then discuss sector trends and expectations, along with earnings development for companies under our ...
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