Vodafone (Buy, 135p, +93%) Vodacom upside undervalued

When talking about Vodafone with market participants, almost all of the discussion tends to be on Germany. However, this morning my colleague Chris has upgraded his estimates for Vodacom and we have increased our target from ZAR150 to ZAR180 – with the full details published here. We believe the positive benefits from Vodacom are being overlooked in the Vodafone share price and we re-visit that thesis in this note with an updated view on Vodafone.

EU TELCOS: What a recessionary scenario might look like

When the news of the Trump tariffs first hit the tapes, we didn’t write anything initially as a) we didn’t think we had much of value to add to the thousands of column inches already written on the topic, and b) the direct impact from the tariffs to the EU telecoms sector is minimal – resulting in relative outperformance for the group over the past few days.

Vodafone (Buy, 135p, +87%) India value extraction on the horizon?

Vodafone’s lock-up in India expires at the end of this month. Given the news today on a debt-for-equity swap involving the Indian Government at Vodafone Idea, we explore the implications of this and whether there could be a surprise value crystallisation for Vodafone on the cards.

Vodafone Idea (Neutral, TP: INR 10, +20%) Government to more than dou...

Over the weekend, Vodafone Idea announced that the government will more than double their equity stake to 48.99% from 22.6% through the conversion of INR 369.5bn (US$ 4.3bn) in spectrum dues. As of this writing, the stock spiked up by 19% today. Further to what we had previously written on the nationalisation of Vodafone Idea, we lay out our initial thoughts below.

Liberty Global to buy out VodafoneZiggo? Our Take.

It is being reported that Liberty Global is in talks with Vodafone about potentially buying out their 50% stake in VodafoneZiggo.

Indian Telcos Q3 FY25 review: Sustained margin expansion from July’s ...

Trends continued to benefit from last July’s tariff hike with sustained margin expansion across all three operators. Capex intensity is expected to moderate further for Bharti as network build decelerates, whereas VIL would accelerate its spending on the back of its 5G launch in March. India’s FWA development remains promising, with potential positive implications on EM Telcos

Vodafone (Buy, 135p, +107%) Model update - German EBITDA could just gr...

Following Vodafone’s results earlier today, we now publish an updated model to reflect their comments. We reduce our price target from 150p to 135p (4.8x EBITDAaL), but still believe that Vodafone’s “ambition” to grow German EBITDA in FY26 could just be possible.

Vodafone (Buy, 150p) Q3 25: Vodafone's German Whack-A-Mole

Vodafone’s Q3 results at a headline level read absolutely fine: service revenue growth picked up to 5.2% and was ahead of consensus, and all Group guidance has been re-iterated.

Indian Telcos & Towers News reports that the Indian government may vo...

Indian press is reporting that the Indian government is planning to cut AGR liabilities for the industry by around INR 1 trn (c. $12bn), by cutting 50% of interest and 100% of penalties and interest on penalties relating to the AGR fines. Implication would be a c. INR 520bn (US$ 6.2bn) reduction in liabilities for Vodafone IDEA and around INR 380bn (US $4.5bn) for Bharti.

Revealing the spectrum sale details from Vod-Three to O2 (potentially!...

The merger of Vodafone-Three is the biggest change in the UK wireless market in many years. But potentially the second biggest change is the size of the spectrum sale from Vod-Three to O2. This has the potential to shape competitive dynamics for years to come and we believe we have unearthed new details of the spectrum transfer to steer people in the right direction for a likely outcome.

German mobile pricing deteriorating Assessing the most recent moves

Over the past few months, we have been writing on the increased signs of competitive intensity in the German mobile market. We are only nine days into the New Year and sadly there are signs of this further heating up with new moves by DT and 1&1. In this report, we review those moves in more detail and consider the potential impact on all the companies involved (DT, Vodafone, Telefonica and 1&1).

Indian Telcos & Towers What to expect in 2025: FWA S-curve enables mo...

FWA will likely be the key themes of 2025 in Indian Telcos we think, with the market likely to be delivering 5m+ quarterly net adds by the end of the year. This is likely to drive renewed optimism towards Bharti and enable Jio to IPO. Given Jio’s valuation of approaching $200bn if it happens this is likely to be one of the biggest events in Global Telecoms this year. On rolling forward our DCF our Indus pt rises to INR 325 and we lift our recommendation to Neutral, and stay Buyers of both Bharti...

European Telecoms: The Year Ahead 2025 Ongoing regulatory support all...

2024 saw the best outperformance for the telecoms sector since 2013 (and the third best since 2000) and ironically this came in a year with one of the lowest announced M&A volumes. We believe this is a testament to improved perception of the underlying fundamentals.

Altice International (Equal Weight) Digi (Equal Weight) NOS (Neutral, ...

Digi launched in Portugal, one month ago – read our take HERE, and our update one week after the event HERE. In this report we look at how tariffs have changed one month after the launch.

Vodafone-Three UK merger approved Our Quick Take

In this Quick Take, we highlight the key points to support the deal and also what we still don't know about the deal that could impact FWA and mobile competition in the UK, and the impact on Vodafone's valuation.

Vodafone (Buy, 140p, +100%) Post call thoughts: What is needed to hit...

Vodafone’s H1 earnings call recently wrapped up with the stock having sold off during and after the call. We review our thoughts on this and in this note show some further analysis on what would be required to meet the FY EBITDA guidance based on the new comments given in the call.

Vodafone (Buy, 140p, +100%) H1 25 - Questions still lingering in Germ...

Vodafone has reported their H1 results, and although headline numbers were in line with expectations and all guidance has been reiterated.

Altice International (Over weight) Digi (Equal weight) NOS (Neutral, T...

Digi launched in Portugal, one week ago – read our take HERE. In this report we look at how the launch has been received in Portugal (including a run-through of tariff changes by the incumbents).

Vodafone UK-3 merger: Detailed review of CMA remedy paper

GERMAN ALTNET UPDATE: What will be the key to success?

Last week, we reviewed the UK altnet market. So this week, we turn our attention to Germany and how the fibre challengers are developing in that market. We have done a lot of work over the past few months on the MDU market in Germany for TeleColumbus and OXG. So now, we specifically focus on Deutsche Glasfaser and the recent UGG/ Infrafibre deal, as these players mount their challenge against DT in the SDU market.