reports
- Chris Hoare
Chinese Telcos & Towers Outlook 2024 – Expect another good year for t...
2023 was another decent year for the telcos largely driven by Enterprise. Stocks (especially China Mobile and Telecom) outperformed the weak local index. We expect trends to last through 2024 with good revenue growth and reducing margin pressure and the potential for shareholder remuneration to surprise
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
- Chris Hoare
Chinese Telcos Q2 23 review: Better EBITDA; Enterprise continue to dr...
Chinese operators slowed to 5% service revenue growth, with the slowdown in mobile and broadband only partially offset by enterprise growth. Importantly, shareholder remuneration were encouraging as interim dividends grew 10%/19%/23% YoY for CM, CT and CU respectively.
- Chris Hoare
GEM Telcos Are the price wars finally over?
For 15 years, EM Telcos were engaged in a war for market share, with price the primary weapon. But peace is now breaking out globally. Mobile prices are rising across global EM (India, Brazil, Indonesia, Thailand among others). In this note, we analyze which markets have the greatest potential for recovery, based on 3 criteria: affordability, market structure and challenger returns.
- Chris Hoare
Chinese Telcos Q1 23 review: Growth sustained by better mobile and co...
Chinese operators sustained another round of 7-8% service revenue growth, supported by improvements in mobile and continued strength in Enterprise. Given the growth in absolute incremental Enterprise revenue, Enterprise service revenue contribution has now exceeded fixed line.
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
Chinese Telcos Showing the path for the rest of EM
Chinese Telcos have seen growth and return on capital inflect. Shareholder remuneration is improving. Despite a big rally recently, we see the sector doubling in value in coming years, but more importantly for those who cannot invest in the sector, we think Chinese Telcos are leading indicators of what is set to happen in the rest of EM.
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
New Street: Chinese Telcos & Towers Outlook 2023: Expect another good...
2022 was a good year for the telcos largely driven by Enterprise. We expect trends to last through 2023 with high single digit revenue growth though some near-term margin pressure is expected. Shareholder remuneration is guided to improve. We remain Buyers of all 3. China Tower should also do well in 2023 we think given more certainty following the new contract.
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
New Street: EM Telcos Q3 22 Enterprise review: Onboard the Enterprise...
Enterprise remains as the fastest driver for most EM Telcos and is set to exceed expectations based on our view that Enterprise penetration is following an S-curve. For nascent markets (India, Latam, Thailand), acceleration is the theme; while more mature markets like China are still riding on the double-digit trend. We see China as the leading indicator as to how Enterprise revenue might trend for EM telcos. In this note, we pull together actual Enterprise revenue trends as reported by EM Telco...
- Chris Hoare
New Street: Chinese Telcos Q3 22 review: High-single digit growth aga...
Chinese telcos reported high-single digit service revenue growth again, driven by Enterprise and a better mobile performance. However, EBITDA growth and margin saw some pressure, attributed to higher personnel, marketing costs and Enterprise-related technical costs.
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
New Street: EM Telcos Q2 Enterprise review; secular growth continues
We continue to see signs that Enterprise revenue growth is a secular growth driver for EM Telcos, leading to an improving top line outlook. We believe Enterprise revenues for EM Telcos are set to exceed expectations based on our view that Enterprise penetration is following an S-curve, as a wave of SMEs start the process of digitizing in Emerging Markets. In this note, we pull together actual Enterprise revenue trends as reported by EM Telcos up to Q2.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
New Street: Chinese Telcos Data Centres: A valuation anomaly that is ...
In a separate note published today we analyse the Data Centre opportunity for EM Telcos globally which shows that the best value opportunity for those that can invest is probably in China. The 3 Chinese Telcos are each among the top 6 providers of co-location DC capacity globally, and generate 3-9% of group revenues from IDC.
- Chris Hoare
New Street: Global EM Telcos 8 EM Telcos we think are set to double i...
We have written numerous notes now on our view that EM Telcos are in a bull market. And in a bull market it is likely that the best performers will double. In this note, we pick out the 9 EM Telcos we think are most likely to do that on a 2-3 year time horizon. Investors who focus on these stocks we think are likely to generate outsized returns well ahead of the broader market.
- Chris Hoare
New Street: Chinese Telcos & Towers Outlook 2022 – The year has start...
2021 saw revenue growth improve materially for the telcos largely driven by Enterprise. With Enterprise penetration still in the twenties, we expect this process to continue, leading to reduced margin pressure and accelerating profit growth. Share price response to better trends was disappointing in 2021, but 2022 has started well, with a $12.6bn buyback from China Mobile, and aggressive profit targets from China Unicom.
- Chris Hoare
New Street: Chinese Telcos Good quarter, fundamentals are strong, sta...
Q3 was another good quarter for the Chinese telcos. Everything is going into the right direction for the sector in our view, stocks are cheap and we continue to think they are compelling investment for those who can invest in those names.
- Chris Hoare
New Street: Chinese telecoms Strong quarter, driven by Enterprise, st...
Even if you can’t invest in Chinese telcos this note is useful as it helps to explain why we are getting so bullish about EM Enterprise revenues. For a number of reasons we think China is a lead indicator for what is likely to happen to EM telco revenue growth in coming years as Emerging Economies digitise.
- Chris Hoare
New Street: Emerging Market Telcos Modelling the Enterprise S-Curve
We analyse the Enterprise opportunity in EM. Post-Covid emerging economies are digitizing rapidly, and importantly following an S-Curve of Enterprise penetration. S-Curves are exceptionally powerful in our experience and we show in this note that Enterprise revenues could in many cases double in 4-6 years, adding 10-25% to the top line for a number of leading EM telcos.
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