reports
- ING Helpdesk
- ING Helpdesk
- Michiel Declercq
- Thomas Couvreur
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Emira Sagaama
- Thijs Berkelder
ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 09/19/2024
After a challenging H1 for champagne, the industry expects volumes to stabilise in H2 ahead of a recovery in 2025. We lower our estimates for the current year for all champagne groups. In these conditions, we prefer Laurent-Perrier, the sector best-in-class which has many times proven its resilience in champagne market slumps, and upgrade our rating to Outperform vs Neutral. We downgrade Lanson-BCC to Neutral and remain at Neutral on Vranken Pommery given their more fragile profiles. - ...
- Emira Sagaama
- Thijs Berkelder
ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 19/09/2024
Après un S1 difficile pour le champagne, la profession table sur une stabilisation des volumes au S2 avant une reprise en 2025. Nous révisons en baisse nos estimations pour l’année en cours pour l’ensemble des groupes. Dans ce cadre, nous privilégions le Best-in-class du secteur, Laurent-Perrier, qui a maintes fois démontré sa capacité de résilience en temps de « crise » et relevons notre opinion à Surperformance vs Neutre. Nous abaissons Lanson-BCC à Neutre et maintenons Vranken Pomm...
- Thijs Berkelder
Fastned : Selected for £ 3bn ultra rapid London charging JV
>Places for London partner for potential of 65 charging sites - Preferred bidder. On Tuesday 17 February, Fastned announced it “has been identified as Places for London's preferred bidder to expand London’s public charging network. Subject to approvals and finalisation of contract terms, Fastned will form a joint venture with Places for London to develop multiple electric vehicle ultra-rapid charging hubs across London. Further details on the joint venture between Fas...
- Soomit Datta
PYPL US (BUY, TP: $85, +24%) ADYEN (BUY, TP: EUR1,700) SQ US (Neutral,...
We continue our series of Deep dives into Payments (see previous: Unified Commerce, and Rise of the Merchants) with a look at Real Time Payment (RTP) developments. Adoption has been rapid on a global basis, notably at the consumer level in markets like Brazil, though is a significant laggard in the US. Momentum here is, however, slowly building through FedNow (launched only in 2023) with banks/FIs stalling, but with consumer demand we think high and with a Visa/Mastercard interchange settlement ...
- Marc Hesselink
- CFA
- Thymen Rundberg
Fastned/Faint headwinds/HOLD
In our view Fastned reported a neutral to slightly negative 1H24 update. Revenue and gross profit growth was roughly in line with our expectations, although we saw a larger-than-expected increase in the cost-base. As a result, we lower our EBITDA estimates primarily on the back of higher OPEX. We maintain our HOLD rating and lower our target price to €17.50 per share (from €23).
- Cor Kluis
Adyen NV : 1H24 revenue growth & profit in line, durable competitive a...
>Conclusion:1H24 revenue growth & profit in line, durable competitive advantage - The 1H24 revenues were in line with expectations, so the high >20% revenue growth pace continued in 2Q24. It was positive that the company provided a new guidance of about +21/+22% net revenue growth for 2H24. In 1H24 Europe and North America showed a good revenue growth, but Asia and LatAm not (yet). Asia and LatAm are more for the longer term growth. The 1H24 net profit was in line wi...
- Jason Kalamboussis
NN Group/Tighter path to higher yield pastures/BUY
While most buyouts due to the Dutch pension reform will come in 2026-27, with an expectation of €10bn of AuMs (NN's fair share), the Solvency 2 ratio may struggle to go much beyond the 200% to 2027 without markets help. With a capital generation showing some bright spots (Insurance EU, Non-Life) but also some only temporary supports (Bank, RE, Japan), we expect it not to provide significant surprises in the near term. The long-term picture, however, for the Dutch sector brightens with pension re...
- Cor Kluis
NN Group : 1H24 Solvency in line, OCG/FCF better but targets unchanged
>Conclusion: 1H24 Solvency in line, OCG/FCF better but targets unchanged - The end-1H24 Solvency ratio was in line with our expectations supported by the strong NL housing market. For Q3 the equity/rate/real estate market impact is quite neutral for the S2 ratio, and we estimate the S2 ratio to rise to 198% by end-2024. The years after the S2 ratio will grow further by the retained capital generation. This retained capital generation can be offset by the NL pension bu...
- Soomit Datta
ADYEN (BUY, TP: EUR1,700, +33%) Adyen post-call: FY 24 consensus like...
A solid call from the company and specifically we would highlight the commentary on H2 24 revenue growth being lower than H1 (23.5%) - and as expected – BUT not dropping below the low end of the guide range of low to mid-twenties. Given where consensus has slipped to (21.4%), and taking 21.0% as “low twenties” (could be higher), this would imply a lift to consensus revenue in the range of 0.8-2.2pp for this year. Elsewhere we liked the focus on TCO and in particular clear messaging on debit rout...
- Soomit Datta
ADYEN (BUY, TP: EUR1,700, +40%) Adyen H1 24 - Solid print, nice lift ...
After recent volatility in quarterly operational performance, Adyen H1s were solid and drama free: revenue and EBITDA came in 1% ahead of expectations. Share gains (group volumes +45% y/y) continue to offset any dampening in broader US consumer spend. Revenue growth accelerated from 21% y/y in Q1 to 26% in Q2, with Q2 enjoying the easier comp (given US travails last year) but with a nice lift in EMEA growth also and allowing the company to reiterate the low to high twenties revenue growth guide ...
- Thijs Berkelder
Fastned : Operational cash flow growing for self-funded expansions
>H1 results strong but slightly weaker than our forecast - P&L. Revenues in H1 were up 45% y-o-y to € 37.8m (AAOB € 38.6m), Gross profit is up 52% y-oy to € 29.8m (AAOB € 31.2m), equivalent to € 0.47 per kWh, and Underlying EBITDA in H1 was up by 12% y-o-y to € 3.2m (AAOB € 5.9m). Net profit in H1 was still negative € 11.4m, "a consequence of the ongoing large expansion effort" (AAOB minus € 12.2m)CFFO in H1 improved to minus € 1.0m (AAOB minus € 1.1m), up from m...
- ING Helpdesk
- Cor Kluis
NN Group : Solvency, OCG, FCF somewhat better, guidance unchanged, non...
>Conclusion: Solvency, OCG and FCF somewhat better, guidance unchanged - The 1H24 Solvency, OCG and FCF were all marginally better than expected. Their future guidance for OCG and FCF remain unchanged. In total we expect some outperformance of the share price today. We keep our Outperformance recommendation. This residential house effect on Solvency and the good non-life combined ratio are also good for a.s.r. as well.1H24 Solvency better than consensus a...
- Cor Kluis
Adyen NV : Marginally better, growth Q2 higher than Q1, positive relie...
>Conclusion: Marginally better, growth Q2 higher than Q1, positive relief - The 1H24 Adyen results were marginally better than consensus and in line with our expectations. Most important was that the net revenue top line did not show any slowdown, and that as expected the Q2 growth rate was even somewhat higher than Q1 growth rate. After some stress the last few times that Adyen reported results we expect this is a positive relief for the market. We keep our Outperfo...
- Mahaut Arnaud
- Paul de Froment
- Thomas Mordelle
Fastned: on track to deliver growth
This morning, Fastned published its H1 2024 key metrics and number of operating stations. H1 sales came in at EUR37.8m (+45% YoY), implying revenue of EUR18.9m in Q2 2024 (+48% YoY) and pointing to an annual run-rate of at least EUR75.6m (vs cons. at EUR93m for FY24 and BGe EUR100m). Fastned posted
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Lewi
- Wim Lewi
Fastned 1H24 Results, Gross profit in line, but expansion costs increa...
The sales and gross profit came close to our expectations, but 1H24 EBITDA fell short vs. our expectations at EUR 3.3m vs. 8.0m expected. The EPS loss amounted to -0.59 and also missed our -0.43 expectation. As Fastned is opening more regions, it has to invest in new areas with low initial scale. The network operating expenses rose 68% YoY while sales rose only 45%. The financial costs were in line with expectations. The share price has been weak recently as the EV adoption curve stalled. Howeve...
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