Benelux Morning Notes

Ackermans & van Haaren: Nextensa might aim for ‘Proximus Towers' landmark project. D'Ieteren: Auto CEO sees Belgian new car market at 420k in 2025, down 6% YoY. Fastned: Preview of 4Q24 trading update. Proximus: HQ sale likely at price materially lower than expected. Randstad: 4Q24F results due 12 Feb, consensus released, negative earnings momentum. WDP: Sizeable acquisition in Belgium

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 12/11/2024

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 11/12/2024

NN Group : S2 ratio decline to 184% by end-24, OCG € 927m H2, higher O...

Benelux Morning Notes

Avantium: Christmas (Round) Robin. dsm-firmenich: A lot of hot air about Bovaer®. Fastned: JV confirmed with Places of London. Shell: JV with Equinor on UKCS. Staffing: Belgium staffing, French govt falls - less growth but fiscal policy less restrictive?

Benelux Morning Notes

D'Ieteren: Belgian Nov car registrations down 15.3%, VW down 28% on tough comps. Dutch insurance – maths on buyouts post Achmea Life JV with Sixth Street

Fastned/Good update, uncertainty remains/HOLD

Fastned reported a 4Q23 trading update in October where revenue and gross profit came in higher vs our estimates. As a result, we make small upward revisions to our forecasts. We keep our HOLD rating but raise our target price to €20.5 per share (from €17.50 previously).

Benelux Morning Notes

Ageas: Circling around Direct Line, Aviva edges ahead. D'Ieteren: TVH distribution footprint restructured in Belgium. Dutch insurance - Achmea Life JV with PE firm, aiming to take 20% of Dutch buyouts. Elia: FY24 guidance up. Prosus: 1H25 Preview. Renewi: Macquarie is back. Sif Group: First monopile rolls out of new factory

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 11/12/2024

...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 12/11/2024

...

Adyen NV : The >20% revenue growth path is continuing well

>Conclusion: The >20% revenue growth path is continuing well - The 3Q24 net revenue growth of +21% yoy (cc) was 1-2pp less than we expected. As a consequence of the reduction of business of one single low revenue (high TPV / low take rate) client the Q3 TPV was lower and the take rate was higher. Most important is that the revenue growth remains at the >+20% level. The limited FTE growth and focus on profitable clients increases our confidence in the EBITDA margin exp...

NEXI Q3 (Neutral, TP: EUR7.2, +24%)/ Euro Payments wrap; Legacy limpin...

Volumes continue to be soft, if stable, for “legacy” players with Nexi reporting 3% y/y volume growth in Q3 (as in Q2) - identical trends to Worldline (see Q3 write up HERE) . Adyen volumes are of course well ahead; whilst legacy players confront macro pressures, and more, Adyen’s ability to gain share is both notable – and indeed essential for the equity story.

ADYEN US (BUY, TP: EUR1,700, +28%) Adyen - Q3 and a volatile day; cal...

After a rollercoaster day, the stock seems to have landed in a sensible place: small miss, small down. We thought the earnings call was solid, as good as we were likely to get, management sounding confident on accelerating growth into FY 25.

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 11/07/2024

...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 07/11/2024

...

Adyen NV : Net revenue growth +21% cc being -just- 1% less than expect...

>Conclusion: Net revenue growth +21% cc being -just- 1% less than expected - The 3Q24 net revenue growth was +21% cc being -just- 1% less than expected. We understand that with a high growth company even 1% less is relevant but we do not have to change our revenue estimates for the future in any material way. We keep our Outperform as the +21% constant revenue growth show the business model is working well. Net revenue growth Q3 +21% at cc vs +22% expect...

Morning Notes : AALB NA, ADYEN NA, CPINV BB, CMBT BB, GBLB BB, MDXH BB...

: AALB NA, ADYEN NA, CPINV BB, CMBT BB, GBLB BB, MDXH BB, TESB BB, ALFEN NA

Dynamic Top Pick List Update November 2024 – Adding Azelis – Removing ...

With 2 changes in our Dynamic Top Pick list (we add Azelis and we remove Solvay) we maintain a defensive stance on the market for 2H24. The long anticipated interest rate cuts by central banks have finally started. The Trump election victory in the US does not bode well for European stocks as he favours a protectionist course. Although industrial companies with a US base could actually benefit. Cleantech names with exposure to the US could also suffer (unless owned by E.Musk). We expect the US ...

ADYEN (BUY, TP: EUR1,700, +25%) Adyen Q3 outlook: Maintain BUY on bea...

Following solid H1s, and a rare and supportive near-term steer for H2, consensus expectations have stayed pretty rooted to the bottom of the guide range for revenue for both Q3 (reported Thursday/tomorrow) and Q4 (21%, 20% y/y respectively). Downside risk to estimates for H2 looks limited.

WLN (Neutral, TP: EUR8.5, +35%) Worldline Q3 revenue - Tough top line,...

Worldline Q3 missed consensus revenue by 1% after close on Weds but, after three profit warnings this year, avoided the ignominy of a fourth keeping FY 24 guide intact (revs +1%, EBITDA ~EUR1.1 bn, FCF ~EUR0.2 billion).