reports
- Soomit Datta
PYPL US (BUY, TP: $85, +24%) ADYEN (BUY, TP: EUR1,700) SQ US (Neutral,...
We continue our series of Deep dives into Payments (see previous: Unified Commerce, and Rise of the Merchants) with a look at Real Time Payment (RTP) developments. Adoption has been rapid on a global basis, notably at the consumer level in markets like Brazil, though is a significant laggard in the US. Momentum here is, however, slowly building through FedNow (launched only in 2023) with banks/FIs stalling, but with consumer demand we think high and with a Visa/Mastercard interchange settlement ...
- Cor Kluis
Adyen NV : 1H24 revenue growth & profit in line, durable competitive a...
>Conclusion:1H24 revenue growth & profit in line, durable competitive advantage - The 1H24 revenues were in line with expectations, so the high >20% revenue growth pace continued in 2Q24. It was positive that the company provided a new guidance of about +21/+22% net revenue growth for 2H24. In 1H24 Europe and North America showed a good revenue growth, but Asia and LatAm not (yet). Asia and LatAm are more for the longer term growth. The 1H24 net profit was in line wi...
- Soomit Datta
ADYEN (BUY, TP: EUR1,700, +33%) Adyen post-call: FY 24 consensus like...
A solid call from the company and specifically we would highlight the commentary on H2 24 revenue growth being lower than H1 (23.5%) - and as expected – BUT not dropping below the low end of the guide range of low to mid-twenties. Given where consensus has slipped to (21.4%), and taking 21.0% as “low twenties” (could be higher), this would imply a lift to consensus revenue in the range of 0.8-2.2pp for this year. Elsewhere we liked the focus on TCO and in particular clear messaging on debit rout...
- Soomit Datta
ADYEN (BUY, TP: EUR1,700, +40%) Adyen H1 24 - Solid print, nice lift ...
After recent volatility in quarterly operational performance, Adyen H1s were solid and drama free: revenue and EBITDA came in 1% ahead of expectations. Share gains (group volumes +45% y/y) continue to offset any dampening in broader US consumer spend. Revenue growth accelerated from 21% y/y in Q1 to 26% in Q2, with Q2 enjoying the easier comp (given US travails last year) but with a nice lift in EMEA growth also and allowing the company to reiterate the low to high twenties revenue growth guide ...
- Cor Kluis
Adyen NV : Marginally better, growth Q2 higher than Q1, positive relie...
>Conclusion: Marginally better, growth Q2 higher than Q1, positive relief - The 1H24 Adyen results were marginally better than consensus and in line with our expectations. Most important was that the net revenue top line did not show any slowdown, and that as expected the Q2 growth rate was even somewhat higher than Q1 growth rate. After some stress the last few times that Adyen reported results we expect this is a positive relief for the market. We keep our Outperfo...
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Lewi
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
ADP AEROPORTS DE PARIS SA
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
KPN ROYAL KPN NV
ORA ORANGE SA
HO THALES SA
GFC GECINA SA
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
RCO REMY COINTREAU SA
SW SODEXO SA
GLE SOCIETE GENERALE S.A. CLASS A
KBC KBC GROUP N.V.
ALO ALSTOM SA
ELE ENDESA S.A.
EZJ EASYJET PLC
REP REPSOL SA
SOI SOITEC SA
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
NEM NEMETSCHEK SE
GAS NATURGY ENERGY GROUP S.A.
ELI ELIA GROUP SA/NV
MOCORP METSO OUTOTEC OYJ
ENG ENAGAS SA
IBE IBERDROLA SA
ERF EUROFINS SCIENTIFIC SOCIETE EUROPEENNE
AM DASSAULT AVIATION
SGSN SGS SA
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
ADP AEROPORTS DE PARIS SA
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
KPN ROYAL KPN NV
ORA ORANGE SA
HO THALES SA
GFC GECINA SA
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
RCO REMY COINTREAU SA
SW SODEXO SA
GLE SOCIETE GENERALE S.A. CLASS A
KBC KBC GROUP N.V.
ALO ALSTOM SA
ELE ENDESA S.A.
EZJ EASYJET PLC
REP REPSOL SA
SOI SOITEC SA
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
NEM NEMETSCHEK SE
GAS NATURGY ENERGY GROUP S.A.
ELI ELIA GROUP SA/NV
MOCORP METSO OUTOTEC OYJ
ENG ENAGAS SA
IBE IBERDROLA SA
ERF EUROFINS SCIENTIFIC SOCIETE EUROPEENNE
AM DASSAULT AVIATION
SGSN SGS SA
- Johanna Jourdain
Edenred : Another (heavily) punished results publication
>H1 results and FY 2024 positive up to EBITDA - Yesterday, before the stock market close, Edenred reported H1 2024 results above expectations (+2% on EBITDA), including a 130bp margin increase and an FY 2024 EBITDA guidance (range € 1.23bn/€ 1.30bn) in line with the consensus at € 1,264m. Nevertheless, this publication was heavily punished (share price -13% at the close), for two main reasons in our view: 1/ future adjustments to the bottom of P&L for the consensus (n...
- Johanna Jourdain
Edenred : Encore une publication (lourdement) sanctionnée
>Résultats S1 et guidance FY24 positifs jusqu’à l’EBITDA - Edenred a publié hier avant Bourse des résultats S1 24 au-dessus des attentes (+2% sur l’EBITDA), dont une progression de la marge de 130 pb et une guidance FY 24 d’EBITDA (fourchette 1.23/1.30 Md€) en ligne avec le consensus à 1 264 M€. Néanmoins, cette publication a été lourdement sanctionnée (-13% à la clôture), pour 2 raisons principalement selon nous : 1/ les ajustements de bas de P&L à venir pour le cons...
- Carole Braudeau
Credit Morning 07/23/2024
ELO/Auchan: Towards an extremely difficult FY 2024 (La Lettre) Grünenthal acquires Valinor Pharma for USD 250mIHO: Schaeffler, Vitesco cut guidance OPmobility (formerly Plastic Omnium) continues to outperform in H1 2024 with strong sales momentumEurofins: Muddy Waters launches third report, questions the cash position again>...
- Carole Braudeau
Morning Crédit 23/07/2024
ELO/Auchan : Vers un exercice 2024 très difficile (La Lettre) Grünenthal acquires Valinor Pharma for $ 250m IHO : Schaeffler, Vitesco cut guidance OPmobility (ex-Plastic Omnium) continue de surperformer au S1 2024 avec une belle dynamique commerciale Eurofins: Muddy Waters launches third report, questions the cash position again>...
- Baptiste Salaville
- Chaima Ferrandon
- Jean-Baptiste Rouphael
- Marc Lavaud
- Oddo Sustainability Team
- Sven Edelfelt
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
CA CARREFOUR SA
HO THALES SA
LISN CHOCOLADEFABRIKEN LINDT & SPRUENGLI AG
FGR EIFFAGE SA
RAND RANDSTAD NV
ENI ENI S.P.A.
RY4C RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC
VACN VAT GROUP AG
SAP SAP SE
AKZA AKZO NOBEL N.V.
JDEP JDE PEET'S NV
P911 DR. ING. H.C. F. PORSCHE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
- Baptiste Salaville
- Chaima Ferrandon
- Jean-Baptiste Rouphael
- Marc Lavaud
- Oddo Sustainability Team
- Sven Edelfelt
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
CA CARREFOUR SA
HO THALES SA
LISN CHOCOLADEFABRIKEN LINDT & SPRUENGLI AG
FGR EIFFAGE SA
RAND RANDSTAD NV
ENI ENI S.P.A.
RY4C RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC
VACN VAT GROUP AG
SAP SAP SE
AKZA AKZO NOBEL N.V.
JDEP JDE PEET'S NV
P911 DR. ING. H.C. F. PORSCHE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
- Johanna Jourdain
Edenred : H1 2024 beat, FY 2024 guidance in line
>H1 2024 results beat expectations, with EBITDA 2% above estimates - Edenred’s total H1 2024 revenues came in at € 1,395m (+20% reported), 1% above the consensus at € 1,388m. In detail, operating revenues amounted to € 1,271m (consensus € 1,270m), with organic growth of 17.0% (non-adjusted basis for better comparison with consensus, +15.4% otherwise), above the consensus at 15.9%. This implies organic growth of +15.4% in Q2, slightly beating expectations at +14.9% and...
- Johanna Jourdain
Edenred : H1 2024 beat, FY 2024 guidance in line
>H1 2024 results beat expectations, with EBITDA 2% above estimates - Edenred’s total H1 2024 revenues came in at € 1,395m (+20% reported), 1% above the consensus at € 1,388m. In detail, operating revenues amounted to € 1,271m (consensus € 1,270m), with organic growth of 17.0% (non-adjusted basis for better comparison with consensus, +15.4% otherwise), above the consensus at 15.9%. This implies organic growth of +15.4% in Q2, slightly beating expectations at +14.9% and...
- Aurelien Deside
- Paul Charpentier
- Soomit Datta
ADYEN (Buy, TP: EUR1,700, +50%) Stripe at $70 billion - What's this m...
Following Sequoia's private market offer implying a $70 billion valuation for Stripe, it's striking that Adyen's trading EV is just $39 billion. Both companies (2023) process similar volumes (~$1 trillion) and growth has been broadly similar (Adyen's very recently ramping on lower Cash App take rates). Profitability at Stripe, however, is assumed to be much lower (loss-making in 2022).
- Soomit Datta
PYPL US (Buy, TP: $80, +33%) ADYEN (Buy, TP: EUR1,800, +58%) Visa-Ma...
On June 25, a federal judge in Brooklyn, NY formally blocked the $30 Billion Swipe-Fee Deal involving Visa / MasterCard and retailers, with a written statement published a few days later (28 June). In this short follow-up to our previous note Rise of the Merchants (19 April), where we discussed interchange and this theme in detail, and with the market mainly focusing on implications for V/MA, we look also at how this relates to PSPs, PayPal and Adyen, and what’s next.
- Emna Ben Bdira
- Maxime Kogge
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