ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 11/13/2024

We maintain our Outperform rating on CaixaBank, one of our Top Picks in the sector, with a higher target of € 7.2 vs € 6.7 and ahead of the CMD on 19 November. We are lifting our net income estimates by 7% for 2025-2026, to 7% above the consensus. The strategic update is set to highlight the wisdom of the business model diversification (long-term savings) to address the current transition phase on rates. Despite a solid market performance, the profile does not look to be fully reflec...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 13/11/2024

Nous réitérons notre opinion Surperformance sur CaixaBank, l’un de nos top picks du secteur, avec un OC porté à 7.2 € vs 6.7 € et en amont du CMD du 19/11. Nous relevons nos anticipations de RN de 7% sur 2025/2026 qui ressortent 7% supérieures au consensus. L’update stratégique devrait mettre en avant la pertinence de la diversification du business model (épargne LT) face à la transition actuelle sur les taux. Malgré un solide parcours boursier, cela n’est pas pleinement reflété dans ...

ODDO : Spain: the PSOE and SUMAR looking to abolish the SOCIMI regime

>PSOE and Sumar spring a surprise in seeking to suddenly abolish the SOCIMI regime - On Monday 11 November, the PSOE reached a tax agreement with its Spanish government ally, “Sumar”, whereby the two parties want to abolish the SOCIMI REIT regime or at least part of its tax advantages. This sudden stance, which surprised Spanish property professionals, is thus different from the position that was presented just last week, namely to “encourage the construction of affor...

ODDO : Espagne : le PSOE et SUMAR souhaiteraient abolir le régime SOCI...

>PSOE et Sumar créent la surprise en voulant supprimer soudainement le régime SOCIMI - Ce lundi 11 novembre, le PSOE sont parvenus à un accord fiscal avec son allié au gouvernement espagnol, « Sumar », par lequel les deux partis veulent supprimer le régime SOCIMI ou au moins une partie de ses avantages fiscaux. Cette prise de position soudaine qui a crée la surprise auprès des professionnels de l’immobilier espagnol, diffère ainsi de la position qui était encore mise ...

Infineon 4FQ24: Inventory digestion hits. Steep recovery embedded in t...

Infineon Technologies AG : When more bad news signifies (perhaps) the ...

>Outperform rating reiterated, despite the very cautious guidance for 2025, target price of € 36 vs € 38 - In the light of Q4 20245 results > forecasts (First take) and despite the guidance for Q1 2025 and 2025 below the lowest expectations of the consensus (including our assumption for zero growth), the share rapidly rebounded during the conference call (+3.5% at close). The idea that emerged from this publication is that the group has, this time, probably been suff...

AZN - Overdone – U/G to BUY (TP £120, 10pgs)

We upgrade AZN after we factor in what we believe is the worst-case China outcome and upgrade our 2025 sales following a strong Q3, leaving us just 2% below 2025 cons EBIT. Moreover, a strong Q3 shows the potential for robust revenue growth (ex-China) in 2025 & based on our conversations with investors, we now believe they are ready to start to look through the China issues, but we acknowledge the very likely risk that AZN will ultimately be drawn into the fraud investigations in China. Furtherm...

Infineon Technologies AG : Quand davantage de mauvaises nouvelles sign...

>Opinion Surperformance réitérée, malgré les guidances très prudentes pour 2025, OC révisé à 36 € vs38 € - Suite à des résultats T4 24 > aux attentes (First take) et malgré des guidances T1 25 et 2025 inférieures aux attentes les plus basses du consensus (y compris la nôtre avec l’hypothèse d’une croissance zéro), le titre a rapidement rebondi durant la conférence call (+3,5% en clôture). L’idée qui ressort de cette publication est que le groupe a, cette fois-ci, pro...

Keep calm and carry on

Vodafone : Better FCF in H1 2025 but record low in Germany

>H1 2025 EBITDA in line with expectations - Q2 2025 group sales were up 4.6% y-o-y to € 9,240m, above expectations (consensus € 9,071m, ODDO BHF € 9,226m), and still helped by hyperinflation in Turkey (sales +89% y-o-y). H1 2025 EBITDAaL was up 2.5% y-o-y to € 2,730m. The targets for 2025 were confirmed (as expected): Vodafone is targeting adjusted pro forma EBITDAaL of € 11bn and adjusted FCF of at least € 2.4bn (consensus: € 2.47bn). These pro forma targets are...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 11/12/2024

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ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 12/11/2024

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Vodafone : Better FCF in H1 2025 but record low in Germany

>H1 2025 EBITDA in line with expectations - Q2 2025 group sales were up 4.6% y-o-y to € 9,240m, above expectations (consensus € 9,071m, ODDO BHF € 9,226m), and still helped by hyperinflation in Turkey (sales +89% y-o-y). H1 2025 EBITDAaL was up 2.5% y-o-y to € 2,730m. The targets for 2025 were confirmed (as expected): Vodafone is targeting adjusted pro forma EBITDAaL of € 11bn and adjusted FCF of at least € 2.4bn (consensus: € 2.47bn). These pro forma targets are...

Bayer : Weaker-than-expected Q3 results and cut in group’s adj. EBITDA...

>Group’s adj. EBITDA significantly below expectations - At a group level, Bayer’s Q3 sales of € 9.97bn (-3.6%), were below our (€ 10.2bn) and consensus estimates (€ 10.1bn), the group’s EBITDA of € 1,251m (-26%) came in 9% weaker than we expected (€ 1,376m) and was 5% below the consensus (€ 1,313m). The significant group’s EBITDA decline vs Q3 2023 was driven by the Pharma division, which came in at € 1,102m (23.4% below Q3 2023). Adjusted EPS of € 0.24 was 37% below ...

AstraZeneca : A better Q3 than anticipated, a change to the Dato regis...

>Q3 better than expected, Symbicort again delivers a positive surprise - AstraZeneca has just published results for Q3 2024 which proved better than expected. Revenue was up +21% at constant currency (cc) driven by the oncology (+22%), CVRM (+20%) and respiratory (+29%) franchise. We see no major difference vis-a-vis forecasts for the group’s core products but we would note an excellent performance over the quarter from Symbicort, as well as Tezspire which came in res...

Credit Morning 11/12/2024

SoftBank Group: significant pre-tax profit in H1 2024-25.>...

Morning Crédit 12/11/2024

SoftBank Group : résultat avant impôts significatif au S1 2024/25>...

AstraZeneca : Un T3 2024 meilleur qu’attendu, changement du process d’...

>Un T3 meilleur qu’attendu, Symbicort est de nouveau la bonne surprise - AZN vient de publier ses résultats du T3 24 qui se révèlent meilleurs qu’attendu. Les revenus sont en hausse de 21% à tcc tirés par sa franchise Oncologie (+22%), CVRM (+20%) et Respiratoire (+29%). Nous ne voyons pas de gros décalage vis-à-vis des attentes dans les produits core du groupe mais pouvons de nouveau souligner l’excellente performance de Symbicort ce trimestre, ainsi que de Tezspire ...

Infineon 4FQ24: Inventory digestion hits. Steep recovery embedded in t...

Infineon reported 4FQ24 this morning.

Infineon Technologies AG : Very conservative outlook for 2025, worse t...

>Q4 2024 results above expectations, despite lower sales - Infineon has reported its Q4 2024 results that beat expectations. Revenues were € 3.92bn, below the Vara Research consensus at € 3.97bn (vs guidance at € 4bn). The adjusted gross margin stood at 42.2%, above the consensus of 41.1%. Segment results were at € 832m i.e. a margin of 21.2%, above the consensus at € 788m and 19.9% (vs guidance for around 20%). Adjusted EPS was € 0.49 above consensus at € 0.46. This...