GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: May Conviction Call Adding CR Beer, Crystal, Geely, Haier, Kuaishou, Ningbo Tuopu, Pinduoduo, Shenzhou, and Tencent to our BUY list, closing out SELL calls. Small-Mid Cap Monthly Reiterate BUY on Crystal International. Sector Automobile Weekly: EV sales pick up; take...
The HSI and MSCI China rose 7.4% and 6.4% mom respectively in April, lifted by news of a stock connect scheme expansion and further easing of restrictions on property purchases in China. With the July Politburo likely to see further supportive policy rollout, we are adding beneficiaries of improving domestic consumption − CR Beer, Crystal, Geely, Haier, Kuaishou, Ningbo Tuopu, Pinduoduo, Shenzhou and Tencent − to our BUY list, and closing out our SELL calls.
We expect promising 1Q24 results for PDD. We forecast continuously strong revenue growth of 104% yoy to Rmb76.7b on strong advertising revenue growth and robust commission revenue generated from Temu. Gross profit margin is estimated to contract 10ppt yoy to 60%, due to heightened cost from Temu. We forecast non-GAAP net profit to grow 41% yoy to Rmb14b, translating to a non-GAAP net profit margin of 18.7%. Maintain BUY with a target price of US$183.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Automobile We raise 2024 forecasts on China’s PV sales growth and PEV sales growth from +8%/+21% to +10%/+24% on bigger-than-expected subsidies for the cash-for-clunker program and zero downpayment auto loans. Meanwhile, we lift the target prices of BYD, Geely, GWM, GAC and Yadea to HK$160.00/HK$13.00/HK$13.50/HK$3.30 /HK$20.00 respectively. Upgrade GWM from HOLD to BUY, and upgrade GAC from SELL to HOLD. Top BUY: CATL, Geely and Yadea. Top SELL: BYD, Li Auto and XPeng. ...
PDD Holdings Files Annual Report on Form 20-F for Fiscal Year 2023 DUBLIN and SHANGHAI, April 25, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- PDD Holdings Inc. (“PDD Holdings” or the “Company”) (NASDAQ: PDD) today announced that it filed its annual report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2023 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) on April 25, 2024. The annual report can be accessed on the Company’s investor relations website at as well as the SEC’s website at . The Company will provide a hard copy of its annual report containing the audited consolidated financial stat...
Given the stabilising revenue growth and abundant cash on hand, mega-cap internet companies have been focusing on offering generous shareholder returns. For 2024, we expect consumption behaviour to switch to service and experience, which will continue to benefit OTA players. We believe other China internet names will outperform with overseas expansion and SFV players will continue to gain market shares with potential for take rate increases. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
What’s new: PDD’s reported 4Q23 results beat consensus and our expectations driven by improving consumer sentiment. PDD could continue to gain share in both domestic and overseas markets as the company remains focused on executing its high-quality development strategy in 2024. We maintain our PT at USD170. Analysts: Jin Yoon
PDD’s 4Q23 results beat expectations. Revenue surged 124% yoy to Rmb88.9b, 11% above consensus estimate, driven by strong advertising revenue growth and robust commission revenue generated from Temu. Gross margin contracted 17ppt yoy to 61%, due to higher cost from Temu. Non-GAAP net profit came in at Rmb25.5b, 51% above consensus estimate which translated to a non-GAAP net margin of 28.7%. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of US$183.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK/BUY/HK$17.20/Target: HK$21.00) 2023: In line; all set to expand market share. CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK/BUY/HK$6.41/Target: HK$7.80) 2023: Results in line; expects double-digit revenue and earnings growth in 2024. Geely Auto (175 HK/BUY/HK$8.83/Target: HK$11.00) 2023: Results beat on margins again; upgrade to BUY. Raise target price from HK$6.50 to HK$11.00. Innovent Biologics (1801 HK/BUY/HK$39.35/Target: HK$60.00) 2023: Results ...
PDD Holdings Announces Fourth Quarter 2023 and Fiscal Year 2023 Unaudited Financial Results DUBLIN and SHANGHAI, March 20, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- PDD Holdings Inc. (“PDD Holdings” or the “Company”) (NASDAQ: PDD), today announced its unaudited financial results for the fourth quarter ended and the fiscal year ended December 31, 2023. Fourth Quarter 2023 Highlights Total revenues in the quarter were RMB88,881.0 million (US$1 12,518.6 million), an increase of 123% from RMB39,820.0 million in the same quarter of 2022.Operating profit in the quarter was RMB22,395.0 million (US$3,154.3 mill...
We are positive about PDD’s performance in 4Q23 driven by Temu. Temu’s business model is agency business, like that of VipShop’s (VIPS, $17.22, Not Rated) business model. Under such a model, we estimate that 30% of Temu’s GMV becomes its international revenue. Temu GMV has been growing and continues to grow rapidly. We estimate the Q/Q growth to be around 40% in 4Q23 with approximately two-thirds of GMV coming from the US market. Its recent expansion in Japan and Korea is also ramping up rapidly...
PDD Holdings to Report Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2023 Unaudited Financial Results on March 20, 2024 DUBLIN and SHANGHAI, March 13, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- PDD Holdings Inc. (“PDD Holdings” or the “Company”) (NASDAQ: PDD) today announced that it will report its unaudited financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2023, before U.S. markets open on Wednesday, March 20, 2024. The Company’s management will hold an earnings conference call at 7:30 AM ET on March 20, 2024 (11:30 AM GMT and 7:30 PM HKT on the same day). The conference call will be webcast ...
Temu achieved strong user engagement growth after sponsoring the Super Bowl in the US in February. We lift our global 2024 GMV forecast for Temu to US$38b from US$34b previously in view of the strong sales growth in Jan-Feb 24 boosted by the Super Bowl. We expect the launch of the new semi-entrusted model in March to further contribute to GMV growth in 2024. To defend against the potential US policy risks, Temu is expected to pivot its focus on Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East.
The HSI and the MSCI China fell 9.2% and 10.5% mom respectively in Jan 24, dragged down by IT and consumer discretionary stocks amid low market confidence and negative geopolitical news flow. The policy easing in late-Jan 24 may have established a bottom, but the timing of a new upcycle remains uncertain, contingent on favourable macro news flow in the near term. Hence, we remain hedged, adding COSCO Shipping Holdings and FII to our BUY list, with additional SELL calls on Li Auto and Xpeng.
The HSI was flat in Dec 23 but the MSCI China fell 2.6% mom. Despite the announcement of new policy support and prospects of US rate cuts in 2024, investors sold into strength following weaker macro data. With MSCI China trading at 9.0x 12-month forward PE, we expect most negatives to have been priced in. We add the potential beneficiaries of the CNY festival − Galaxy Entertainment and Trip.com − to our BUY list, but include SELL calls on BYD and Geely due to the subsidy cut.
The Chinese economy will see a gradual climb higher in 2024, hitting 4% yoy growth, with private consumption providing much of the heavy lifting. Policy easing will be incremental, focusing on the real estate sector and local government financing. Until these issues are resolved, PE expansion will be limited. Thus, EPS growth will be the key driver, with an index target of 67.3pt. Our focus is on smart consumption, premiumisation and turnaround stocks, staying negative on the auto sector.
The Chinese economy will see a gradual climb higher in 2024, hitting 4% yoy growth, with private consumption providing much of the heavy lifting. Policy easing will be incremental, focusing on the real estate sector and local government financing. Until these issues are resolved, PE expansion will be limited. Thus, EPS growth will be the key driver and our index target is at 67.3pt. Our focus is on smart consumption, premiumisation and turnaround stocks. Staying the course. The Central Financ...
MSCI China rose only 2.3% mom in November while the HSI shed 0.4% mom over the same period, despite positive newsflow for the real estate sector. Investors preferred to sell into strength, as concerns over China’s slow economic growth remain. Looking ahead, the mid-Dec 23 Economic Work Conference may provide positive surprises and with MSCI China trading at 12-month forward PE of 9.3x, risk is skewed to the upside. We add CSPC, HKEX, Lenovo, Longfor, Pinduoduo and Sunny Optical to our BUY list.
With swift progress in GMV growth and market expansion, PDD is ramping up its efforts to develop Temu’s supply chain network. Nevertheless, its rapid expansion has also caused increasing concerns, mainly on Temu’s profitability and political risks that may potentially arise. Given Temu’s impressive performance in 3Q23, we have included Temu’s contribution in PDD’s valuation and conducted a scenario analysis of Temu’s impact on PDD’s valuation. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of US$173.00...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI A mixed bag despite negative headlines. Sector Automobile Weekly: EV sales fell and inventories piled up during 20-26 Nov 23. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELLs: BYD and Ganfeng Lithium. Results CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK/BUY/HK$7.05/Target: HK$9.20) 9M23: Results in line; new products to support double-digit revenue growth in 2024. Update PDD Holdings (PDD US/BUY/US$141.73/Target: US$173.00) Poised for a new cycle of revitalised growth propelled by Temu. T...
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