HSI and MSCI China fell 3.5%/4.0% mom in October, dragged by renewed US-China trade tensions and lack of fresh policy signals from the 4th Plenum. We remain constructive in the medium term but expect further consolidation as uncertainties persist. The best performer among our picks was SELL-rated Li Auto (+21.4% mom). For November, we rotate into oversold names with near-term upside: add AIA, LINK REIT, NAURA, Pinduoduo, PICC P&C and Sunny Optical to BUY; take profits on Meituan, OOIL and Ping A...
                                                                                Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls HSI and MSCI China fell 3.5%/4.0% mom in October, dragged by renewed US-China trade tensions and lack of fresh policy signals from the 4th Plenum. We remain constructive in the medium term but expect further consolidation as uncertainties persist. The best performer among our picks was SELL-rated Li Auto (+21.4% mom). For November, we rotate into oversold names with near-term upside: add AIA, LINK REIT, NAURA, Pinduoduo, PICC P&...
                                                                                Data from the initial phase of the 11.11 campaign set a compelling prelude for a mid-single-digit GMV growth in 4Q25. The new phase of 11.11 is characterised by a longer cycle, simplified promotion mechanics, and deeper technological integration. Platform competition has shifted from “traffic wars” to “efficiency wars”, as AI enhances demand-supply matching and instant retail breaks offline barriers, reducing consumer decision costs. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Our top picks are Alibaba and Kuaishou.
                                                                                Following the release of 2Q25 results, the market has started to re-value AI-related and ad-tech upgrade themes. Garnering the most interest was the AI theme driven by: a) re-accelerated cloud revenue growth, b) the emergence of AI agents, c) broader AI application, and d) self-sufficiency in chip development. Potential beneficiaries of the AI theme poised for continuous re-rating include Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu. Tongcheng could see robust travel demand during Golden Week. Maintain OVERWEIGHT...
                                                                                Greater China Sector Update | Internet Following the release of 2Q25 results, the market has started to re-value AI-related and ad-tech upgrade themes. The AI theme garnered the most interest, attributable to: a) re-accelerated cloud revenue growth, b) the emergence of AI agents, c) broader AI application, and d) development of self-sufficient chips. Potential beneficiaries of the AI theme poised for continuous re-rating include Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu. Tongcheng could see robust travel ...
                                                                                Key investor focus areas discussed during the marketing trip include: a) key drivers for AI cloud and applications outperformance, b) sustainability of monetisation of AI applications, c) ROI of accelerating capex, d) self-sufficiency in chips development, and e) where the competition in food delivery and quick commerce is ultimately headed. We foresee that AI/AI Cloud, online gaming and OTAs are poised to benefit from further re-rating, supported by their outperformance in growth. Maintain OVER...
                                                                                China’s internet companies reported intact 2Q25 top-line with mixed earnings results. The key focuses are on the latest quick commerce war and AI cloud and agent development. In 2Q25, we saw meaningful AI monetisation visibility contributing to incremental top-line growth, and expect this momentum to continue into 2H25. On the profitability front, margins will remain under pressure from heightened investments to fend off the intensifying competition in on-demand delivery. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
                                                                                PDD’s 2Q25 earnings exceeded expectations. Revenue increased 7% yoy to Rmb104b, in line with consensus estimates, dampened by sluggish commission revenue growth. Non-GAAP net profit dropped 5% yoy to Rmb32.7b, 46% above consensus estimate. Non-GAAP net margin shrank 4ppt to 31.5%. Looking ahead, PDD expects its top-line growth and profitability to continue fluctuating due to its merchant support strategy. Upgrade to HOLD with a lower target price of US$117.00.
                                                                                GREATER CHINA Results China Overseas Property Holdings (2669 HK/BUY/HK$5.85 /Target: HK$7.00) 1H25: Results a mixed bag; quality growth with slower expansion pace; special dividend for 10th listing anniversary. Goldwind Science & Technology (2208 HK/BUY/HK$9.52/Target: HK$10.80) 1H25: In line; solid backlog, stabilised pricing, and margin recovery ahead. Han’s Laser (002008 CH/BUY/Rmb35.70/Target: Rmb39.50) 2Q25: Solid growth in operating income. PCB/IT equip...
                                                                                What’s new: PDD’s reported 2Q25 revs that were largely in-line with consensus but below our expectations. While margins came in better than expected, PDD cautioned that profitability could continue to fluctuate in the coming quarters. The company is also willing to accept lower profits to consistently reinvest in the platform ecosystem in the long run. Despite attractive valuation (11.2x FY26E P/E), top-line face limited upside to current estimates amid intense competition in the domestic market...
                                                                                KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results China Overseas Property Holdings (2669 HK/BUY/HK$5.85 /Target: HK$7.00) COPH’s 1H25 results showed a 4.3% yoy earnings growth supported by improved efficiency, better receivables collection and stable cash, but revenue growth was weighed down by weaker VAS segments and slowing external expansion, leading to softer earnings forecasts despite stable core PM services. The company announced HK$0.09 interim DPS and HK$0.01 special DPS, implying a 39% payout ratio. Maintain BU...
                                            PDD Holdings Announces Second Quarter 2025 Unaudited Financial Results DUBLIN and SHANGHAI, Aug. 25, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- PDD Holdings Inc. (“PDD Holdings” or the “Company”) (NASDAQ: PDD), today announced its unaudited financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2025. Second Quarter 2025 Highlights Total revenues in the quarter were RMB103,984.8 million (US$114,515.7 million), an increase of 7% from RMB97,059.5 million in the same quarter of 2024.Operating profit in the quarter was RMB25,792.9 million (US$3,600.6 million), a decrease of 21% from RMB32,564.5 million in th...
                                            PDD Holdings to Report Second Quarter 2025 Unaudited Financial Results on August 25, 2025 DUBLIN and SHANGHAI, Aug. 18, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- PDD Holdings Inc. (“PDD Holdings” or the “Company”) (NASDAQ: PDD) today announced that it will report its unaudited financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2025, before U.S. markets open on Monday, August 25, 2025. The Company’s management will hold an earnings conference call at 7:30 AM ET on August 25, 2025 (12:30 PM IST and 7:30 PM HKT on the same day). The conference call will be webcast live at . The webcast will be availab...
                                                                                The national subsidies programme continued to reinforce the consumption trend of “value-based substitution” during the 618 festival. While the share of online vs offline spending remained stable, emerging channels are creating new growth opportunities. We believe the consumption momentum will be shaped by: a) impact from the temporary suspension of the national subsidies programme in five provinces, and b) changes in the food delivery competitive landscape. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
                                                                                GREATER CHINA Sector Healthcare Entering a new phase of accelerated growth. Upgrade to OVERWEIGHT. Internet 618 Festival – Evolving consumer trends and continued focus on value for money. Small/Mid Cap Highlights JBM Healthcare (2161 HK/BUY/HK$2.85/Target: HK$3.31) Takeaways from luncheon. INDONESIA Update Kalbe Farma (KL...
                                                                                What’s new: PDD’s reported 1Q25 results that were below consensus and our expectations. PDD noted that profitability is likely to face challenges in the near-term and potentially over a longer period partly due to continued merchant support amid a challenging environment in both domestic and overseas markets. We lower our PT from US$150 to USD$120 on lowered outlook. Our updated PT of US$120 implies a 16.0x FY25E P/E. We maintain our BUY rating. Analysts: Jin Yoon
                                                                                GREATER CHINA Results Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK/BUY/HK$48.75/Target: HK$70.00): 1Q25: Results in line; poised for encouraging contribution from Kling AI in 2025. Link REIT (823 HK/BUY/HK$40.90/Target: HK$44.90): FY25: Earnings beat expectations; cautious outlook for FY26. PDD Holdings (PDD US/SELL/US$119.24/Target: US$90.00): 1Q25: Earnings miss expectations; increased platform investment to weigh on profitability. Downgrade to SELL. Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK/BUY/HK$51.55/Target: HK$69.90): 1Q25: ...
                                                                                KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK/BUY/HK$48.75/Target: HK$70.00): 1Q25: Results in line; poised for encouraging contribution from Kling AI in 2025. Link REIT (823 HK/BUY/HK$40.90/Target: HK$44.90): FY25: Earnings beat expectations; cautious outlook for FY26. PDD Holdings (PDD US/SELL/US$119.24/Target: US$90.00): 1Q25: Earnings miss expectations; increased platform investment to weigh on profitability. Downgrade to SELL. Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK/BUY/HK$51.55/Target: HK$69.90): 1...
                                                                                PDD’s 1Q25 results missed expectations. Revenue increased 10% yoy to Rmb95.7b, missing consensus estimate by 6%, dampened by sluggish commission revenue growth. Non-GAAP net profit slumped 45% yoy to Rmb16.9b, 39% below consensus estimate. Non-GAAP net margin shrank 18ppt to 17.7%. Looking ahead, PDD expects its top-line growth and profitability to continue being hampered by its merchant support strategy. Downgrade to SELL with a lower target price of US$90.00.
                                                                                Total revenues were RMB95.7bn (-13.5% QoQ and +10.2% YoY), below consensus estimates of RMB101.6bn and our expectations of RMB107.9bn. Online marketing services revenue came in at RMB48.7bn (-14.5% QoQ and +14.8% YoY), below our estimates of RMB49.3bn. Transaction services revenues were RMB47.0bn (-12.4% QoQ and +5.8% YoY), below our estimates of RMB58.5bn. Analysts: Jin Yoon
    
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