In this note we assess the likely cash flow at the parent of Liberty now that the decision to spin off Puerto Rico has been taken. We show that EFCF after minorities in 2026 at the parent is likely around $280m, driving a close to 20% EFCF yield.
Decent numbers, but the key announcement today relates to the separation of the Puerto Rico silo. From an equity, and non-PR debt holders’ perspective clearly (very) positive, for PR debt holders more mixed but still on balance positive.
Liberty Global (LG) has released its Q2/25 numbers. Revenues for consolidated entities amounted to USD 1.17 bn, with a 20.0% y-o-y rebased increase. Adjusted EBITDA rose 5.8% in rebased terms to USD 335 mn, supported by improvements at LG and Telenet. Subscriber trends remained weak overall. Reported total debt grew to USD 9.9 bn, and the cash balance dropped to USD 1.8 bn. Reported net senior leverage stood at 3.8x, and total net leverage at 4.2x.
In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: SIG plc, Playtech, Flos B&B Italia, Liberty Global, Almaviva, Engineering Group, Trivium, Tata Motors, Nissan Motor, Froneri, Modulaire, Clarios, Itelyum Group, Italmatch Chemicals, Synthomer
In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Trivium, Applus, Altice France (SFR), Casino Guichard-Perrachon, International Personal Finance, TeamSystem, Aston Martin, Virgin Media O2, Liberty Global, TalkTalk, Recordati, Tata Motors, Nexans, Italmatch Chemicals, Itelyum Group, Teva
VMO2’s Q2 results show that customer losses and ARPU trends have slipped further in Q2. Although all guidance has been reiterated supported by hopes of a B2B turnaround and near-term cost measures, we think these KPI trends will make it more difficult to sustain organic EBITDA growth into FY26.
Earlier this month we published on how Global EM Telco Capex is falling rapidly, in large part driven by consolidation. On average EM Telco markets have fallen from a peak of 7 players to under 3. We expect many to end up with 2, or even a single network. How much further far might this cut capex?
The Europe HY Trade Book for May 2025 includes current trade recommendations drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry. We also discuss the US tariff situation and key related impacts.
In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Vallourec, Aggreko, TK Elevator, Aston Martin, Techem, Bite, Virgin Media O2, NewDay, Sunrise, Digi Communications, Telecom Italia, Banijay, Liberty Global, Solenis, Air France-KLM, Flos B&B Italia (formerly International Design Group), Forvia (formerly Faurecia), Flora Food Group (formerly Upfield), Premier Foods, The Very Group, Lecta, Air Baltic, Teva, Standard Profil
Group headline trends improved materially, although the recovery in Puerto Rico is slower than we expected. Subscriber losses in PR were also higher than expected. However, capex in PR fell 30%, and as a result, PR net debt also fell by $15m. Headlines are disappointing but the cash flow picture in PR seems to be improving.
Liberty Global (LG) has released disappointing Q1/25 numbers, owing to weak subscriber dynamics. Revenues and adjusted EBITDA grew y-o-y. Cash-flow performance was mixed, with OCF rising while taxes paid and capex increased. Total debt was up, while the cash balance improved slightly. Management aims to reduce leverage, with asset sales ongoing at VodafoneZiggo. However, LG still plans to pay material dividends. Market conditions are set to remain very difficult, and the near-term outlook is...
In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Playtech, Scan Global Logistics, Liberty Global, Clarios, TalkTalk, Modulaire, Klockner Pentaplast, EnQuest Plc, Tata Motors, Cirsa, Ineos, Motel One, Ineos Quattro
The weaker broadband adds at VMO2 reported this morning were only half the story. With the full Liberty Global results, there has also been a material guidance reduction for VodafoneZiggo. We addressed the VMO2 numbers in more detailed in our earlier note here – and now in this note we do a more detailed dive into VodafoneZiggo and how leverage trends could develop over the next few years based on the new guidance and the potential tower sale.
Despite global volatility our EM Top Picks posted positive returns again in April and now up 34% YTD on average. As we have been arguing for some time EM Telco is a much better space than it used to be and this is now being reflected by the market it seems.
In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Neopharmed, PureGym, Rexel, Flos B&B Italia (formerly International Design Group), David Lloyd Leisure, Odido, Liberty Global, Infopro Digital, Eircom, Tele Columbus, McLaren, Nexans, Fedrigoni, Stada, Grupo Antolin, Cerba, Klockner Pentaplast, Cheplapharm, Crown Holdings, Motel One, Stena AB, Casino Guichard-Perrachon
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