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James Ratzer
  • James Ratzer

Liberty LA (Buy, TP: $14.5, +110% ) / LCPR HY Deep dive on Puerto Ric...

We focus on Puerto Rico (PR). Following our call with the CFO we now see monthly EBITDA rising to $34m by y/e 2025 (and $40m by y/e 2026), driven by bad debt and credits normalizing, and revenue growth as net adds inflect.

Felix Fischer ... (+5)
  • Felix Fischer
  • Haidje Rustau
  • Jayanth Kandalam
  • Si Yong Ng
  • Tanvi Arora

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Liberty Global, Ineos, Intrum, Recordati, Ineos Quattro, TUI, David Lloyd Leisure, Aston Martin, Lowell

James Ratzer
  • James Ratzer

Liberty Global to buy out VodafoneZiggo? Our Take.

It is being reported that Liberty Global is in talks with Vodafone about potentially buying out their 50% stake in VodafoneZiggo.

Haidje Rustau
  • Haidje Rustau

Liberty Global - Earnings Flash - Q4 FY 2024 Results - Lucror Analytic...

Liberty Global’s Q4/24 results were disappointing overall, with weak top-line and margin trends. Subscriber development was not as strong as we had forecast, though we note positively the improved outlook for the UK.

Haidje Rustau ... (+6)
  • Haidje Rustau
  • Ian Wong
  • Jayanth Kandalam
  • Peter Low
  • Si Yong Ng
  • Tanvi Arora

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Nexans, TK Elevator, The Very Group, Liberty Global, Tereos, Ontex, Recordati, TI Fluid Systems, THOM Europe, Borr Drilling, Klockner Pentaplast, Casino Guichard-Perrachon

James Ratzer
  • James Ratzer

VirginMedia-O2 Deeper-dive post-results: Path back to 5x leverage un...

After the Liberty Global results last night (see our take here), we now have the more detailed results from VMO2. With lower than expected FCF guidance, weak on-net subscriber trends, ongoing price competition across the market, cash out for spectrum and ongoing dividend upstreaming, we think the path back to 4-5x leverage could be a challenge. As a result, we remain Underweight on the bonds.

Felix Fischer ... (+6)
  • Felix Fischer
  • Haidje Rustau
  • Ian Wong
  • Jayanth Kandalam
  • Peter Low
  • Trung Nguyen

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Odigeo, TGS ASA, Constellium, United Group, Liberty Global, Klockner Pentaplast, evoke (formerly 888 Holdings), Azelis, Recordati, Vedanta Resources

James Ratzer
  • James Ratzer

Liberty Global (Neutral, $16, +42%) Q4 24 - A tough FCF outlook for 20...

Liberty Global faces a challenging time ahead with the continual trade-off of financial engineering vs. underlying fundamentals – and we think the latter will always win in the end.

Haidje Rustau ... (+5)
  • Haidje Rustau
  • Ian Wong
  • Jayanth Kandalam
  • Si Yong Ng
  • Tanvi Arora

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Nexans, TK Elevator, Liberty Global, Ontex, Allwyn (formerly Sazka), Merlin Entertainments, Borr Drilling, Neopharmed

Felix Fischer
  • Felix Fischer

European High Yield Investment Outlook 2025 - Lucror Analytics

In this publication, we review the past year and discuss our outlook for the next 12 months. We begin our discussion with the macro factors at play, including GDP forecasts, the geopolitical landscape and our expectations for cost inflation. We also trace the development of primary markets in the European HY space, and give our view on defaults in general as well as for our coverage universe. We then discuss sector trends and expectations, along with earnings development for companies under our ...

Felix Fischer ... (+8)
  • Felix Fischer
  • Haidje Rustau
  • Ian Wong
  • Jayanth Kandalam
  • Peter Low
  • Si Yong Ng
  • Tanvi Arora
  • Trung Nguyen

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Air Baltic, TAP, Liberty Global, United Group, Techem, THOM Europe, Flora Food Group (formerly Upfield), Softbank Group, Aggreko, Ineos, Premier Foods, Elior

Felix Fischer
  • Felix Fischer

Europe HY Trade Book - December 2024 - Lucror Analytics

The Europe HY Trade Book for December 2024 includes current trade recommendations drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry.

James Ratzer
  • James Ratzer

Liberty Global (Neutral, $14, +14%) Post-Sunrise spin review: New tar...

The Sunrise spin has now been completed. In our Q3 results note, we set out our preliminary views on how Liberty post-Sunrise spin could look.

Haidje Rustau
  • Haidje Rustau

Liberty Global - Earnings Flash - Q3 FY 2024 Results - Lucror Analytic...

Liberty Global (LG) has reported its consolidated Q3/24 results and held an earnings call. The Q3 revenue figures were in line with our expectations, while EBITDA exceeded our forecasts. Top-line pressures continued, but cash-flow development was solid overall and liquidity remained very strong. We expect the group to continue using large share buybacks as a means to return cash to shareholders.

Felix Fischer ... (+6)
  • Felix Fischer
  • Haidje Rustau
  • Ian Wong
  • Jayanth Kandalam
  • Peter Low
  • Tanvi Arora

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Lottomatica (formerly Gamenet), Rexel, Nexans, Liberty Global, Sunrise, Aston Martin, Techem, Synlab, evoke (formerly 888 Holdings), Boparan, Borr Drilling, PureGym

James Ratzer
  • James Ratzer

VirginMedia-O2 Detailed review - with focus on nexfibre and leverage ...

After the Q3 results last night from Liberty Global, this morning we have the more detailed disclosure from VMO2.

Felix Fischer ... (+6)
  • Felix Fischer
  • Haidje Rustau
  • Ian Wong
  • Jayanth Kandalam
  • Peter Low
  • Tanvi Arora

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Liberty Global, SPIE, Nexans, Techem, McLaren, Axactor, CABB, Codere, Takko

Felix Fischer ... (+6)
  • Felix Fischer
  • Haidje Rustau
  • Jayanth Kandalam
  • Peter Low
  • Si Yong Ng
  • Tanvi Arora

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Techem, CEMEX, Liberty Global, Aston Martin, Playtech, Ineos Quattro, Boparan, OPmobility (formerly Plastic Omnium)

Ben Rickett
  • Ben Rickett

EU Towers CTIL transaction at markdown multiple

The FT is reporting that VMO2 is selling a further stake in CTIL to an infrastructure fund. The transaction multiple has not been disclosed, but we estimate could be as low as 15x – the lowest in recent years. In this Quick Take we discuss reasons for the discount and implications for VMO2.

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