reports
- James Ratzer
VMO2 (Underweight) Q3 25 – Core pressures still present on fixed broa...
A big day for VMO2 – not only do we have the Q3 results which we analyse in detail here – and which show further pressures in the core fixed business….but we also have an FT article suggesting VMO2/ nexfibre is interested in buying netomnia, and which we assessed in our earlier note….
- James Ratzer
VMO2 to buy Netomnia? Our Quick Take
As we were waiting for the VMO2 results to arrive and making our final preparations, the FT has published an article suggesting that VMO2 is in advanced stages to buy Netomnia for c.£2bn. However, the VMO2 Q3 results which have just been published make no mention of this. Earlier this month, we recently published a deep-dive note looking at Netomnia.
- James Ratzer
Nexfibre/ VMO2 What can we learn from the newly published accounts
nexfibre (the Liberty Global/ Telefonica/ InfraVia UK fibre venture) has just published their 2024 accounts, which helps to give more insight on their network build, their customer trends and financials. We believe customer numbers on nexfibre were higher than previously expected, implying lower customer volumes on the legacy VMO2 footprint. In this quick note we analyse the key takeaways from this and the impact on VMO2.
- James Ratzer
UK consolidation Should VMO2 consider shutting down its HFC network?
Two of the most common questions we get asked at the moment are: 1) How will the UK broadband market consolidate?, and 2) What can VMO2 do to turn around their performance? We believe an interesting answer to both of these questions could be for VMO2 to consider shutting down their HFC network and moving to wholebuy Openreach’s FTTH network. This could be both value accretive for VMO2 and BT – and allow for a more rational UK market structure. In this thought-piece, we explore further how this...
Liberty Global Ltd: 2 directors
A director at Liberty Global Ltd sold 45,000 shares at 11.459USD and the significance rating of the trade was 64/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clea...
- James Ratzer
- James Ratzer
VirginMedia-O2 (Underweight) Q2 25 – Customer losses and ARPU growth ...
VMO2’s Q2 results show that customer losses and ARPU trends have slipped further in Q2. Although all guidance has been reiterated supported by hopes of a B2B turnaround and near-term cost measures, we think these KPI trends will make it more difficult to sustain organic EBITDA growth into FY26.
- James Ratzer
- James Ratzer
- James Ratzer
VirginMedia-O2 Deeper-dive post-results: Path back to 5x leverage un...
After the Liberty Global results last night (see our take here), we now have the more detailed results from VMO2. With lower than expected FCF guidance, weak on-net subscriber trends, ongoing price competition across the market, cash out for spectrum and ongoing dividend upstreaming, we think the path back to 4-5x leverage could be a challenge. As a result, we remain Underweight on the bonds.
- James Ratzer
- James Ratzer
Liberty Global (Neutral, $23, +8%) Record low service revenue trends a...
This is meant to be the quarter when the upcoming Sunrise spin should be attracting most attention and helping to crystallise value. However, we can't help but be distracted by a sharp deterioration in underlying service revenue trends as the impact of lapping lower inflation price rises and a sustained KPI loss is starting to catch up with Liberty Global.
- Ben Rickett
EU Towers CTIL transaction at markdown multiple
The FT is reporting that VMO2 is selling a further stake in CTIL to an infrastructure fund. The transaction multiple has not been disclosed, but we estimate could be as low as 15x – the lowest in recent years. In this Quick Take we discuss reasons for the discount and implications for VMO2.
- James Ratzer
Liberty Global (Neutral, $23, +16%) Sunrise CMD feedback and Liberty ...
The Sunrise CMD has just wrapped up – with the official spin-off from Liberty Global coming later this year. We provide our initial thoughts here on the new guidance, the valuation impact and the longer-term potential questions as the industry migrates towards higher-speed infrastructure
- James Ratzer
Liberty Global (Neutral, $24, +24%) Q2 24: Deeper dive on VMO2 result...
As Liberty Global continues its transitional journey, we see two key areas of focus from the recent announcements, where we dig deeper in this note - the newly announced Belgian FTTH network sharing arrangement, and the VMO2 results & outlook.
- James Ratzer
Liberty Global (Neutral) Q1 24 - The challenge of subscriber momentum
After the excitement of the strategic announcements in Q4, this is a quieter quarter with all FY financial guidance re-iterated. However, some of the issues that concerned shareholders with the Q4 results persist in the Q1 results: weak KPIs at VMO2 and VodafoneZiggo with limited signs of growth on the new UK nexfibre footprint. On a more positive note, Swiss broadband adds recovered to growth for the first time in a year and could help to support momentum into the Q4 demerger
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- James Ratzer
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- James Ratzer
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