reports
- James Ratzer
VirginMedia-O2 Deeper-dive post-results: Path back to 5x leverage un...
After the Liberty Global results last night (see our take here), we now have the more detailed results from VMO2. With lower than expected FCF guidance, weak on-net subscriber trends, ongoing price competition across the market, cash out for spectrum and ongoing dividend upstreaming, we think the path back to 4-5x leverage could be a challenge. As a result, we remain Underweight on the bonds.
Liberty Global Ltd: 1 director
A director at Liberty Global Ltd sold 20,230 shares at 13.651USD and the significance rating of the trade was 77/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clea...
- James Ratzer
- James Ratzer
Liberty Global (Neutral, $23, +8%) Record low service revenue trends a...
This is meant to be the quarter when the upcoming Sunrise spin should be attracting most attention and helping to crystallise value. However, we can't help but be distracted by a sharp deterioration in underlying service revenue trends as the impact of lapping lower inflation price rises and a sustained KPI loss is starting to catch up with Liberty Global.
- Ben Rickett
EU Towers CTIL transaction at markdown multiple
The FT is reporting that VMO2 is selling a further stake in CTIL to an infrastructure fund. The transaction multiple has not been disclosed, but we estimate could be as low as 15x – the lowest in recent years. In this Quick Take we discuss reasons for the discount and implications for VMO2.
- James Ratzer
Liberty Global (Neutral, $23, +16%) Sunrise CMD feedback and Liberty ...
The Sunrise CMD has just wrapped up – with the official spin-off from Liberty Global coming later this year. We provide our initial thoughts here on the new guidance, the valuation impact and the longer-term potential questions as the industry migrates towards higher-speed infrastructure
- James Ratzer
Liberty Global (Neutral, $24, +24%) Q2 24: Deeper dive on VMO2 result...
As Liberty Global continues its transitional journey, we see two key areas of focus from the recent announcements, where we dig deeper in this note - the newly announced Belgian FTTH network sharing arrangement, and the VMO2 results & outlook.
- James Ratzer
Liberty Global (Neutral) Q1 24 - The challenge of subscriber momentum
After the excitement of the strategic announcements in Q4, this is a quieter quarter with all FY financial guidance re-iterated. However, some of the issues that concerned shareholders with the Q4 results persist in the Q1 results: weak KPIs at VMO2 and VodafoneZiggo with limited signs of growth on the new UK nexfibre footprint. On a more positive note, Swiss broadband adds recovered to growth for the first time in a year and could help to support momentum into the Q4 demerger
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- James Ratzer
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- James Ratzer
- James Ratzer
Liberty Global The end of the cash pile?
We have already written earlier on the Liberty Global results and a deeper dive on the VMO2 guidance. In this note we now write specifically on the 5 new strategic announcements made and why this could imply the end of Liberty Global’s excess cash pile. We show full modelling of the "New Liberty Global" in this note.
- James Ratzer
Virgin Media O2: Deeper dive on the disappointing outlook Liberty Glo...
After the initial results out from Liberty Global last night, we get more detailed results this morning from VMO2, so we are able to further analyse the disappointing guidance given for VMO2 which implies a higher cost base than previously expected to support the current revenue trajectory. In this note, we dive deeper into the implications of this and what it means for Liberty Global and Telefonica.
- James Ratzer
- James Ratzer
VirginMediaO2 Deeper dive on the Q3 results
After the main set of results from Liberty Global last night, we now get the full set of results from VMO2, which include some encouraging signs in their fixed-line business. In this note, we assess the details, what is still needed in Q4 and also thoughts on their CTIL tower sale and how they keep to 5x leverage this year.
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
Liberty Global (Buy, $29, +87%) Q3 23 - A teasing outlook for Q4 - bo...
Liberty Global’s Q3 results have a lot to unpack and a teasing outlook for what is to come in Q4. There are points in there for the bulls (improving UK KPIs; fixed revenue inflection in the Continental markets on the back of price rises helping an overall improvement in service revenues; an acceleration in the buyback and almost all guidance metrics maintained) – but also points for the bears (UK revenue outlook cut from “growth” to “stable” on the back of (we believe) weaker fixed ARPU trends; ...
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
No Halloween nightmare from rising bond yields Impact should be modes...
When rates go up, the knee jerk reaction can be to panic. However bond yield rises in 2023 have been more muted than the changes seen in 2022 and with >90% of telco debt as fixed rate, the impact from rising yields is spread out over many years for the sector.
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
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