Greater China Sector Update | Automobile In 4Q25, the upstream segments (battery and battery materials) outperformed the mid-stream (auto parts) and downstream (auto OEMs) segments. China’s auto sector profits should have bottomed in 1Q26 and will likely recover along with PV sales from 2Q26 as: a) the front-loading effect is fading, b) local subsidies are coming through; c) OEMs are launching new techs; and d) overseas sales remain buoyant. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely, Min...
Singapore equities fell 2.2% in March to 4,885.45 amid escalating Middle East tensions and rising oil prices. Volatility increased as retail investors stayed active, favouring industrial and tech stocks. Corporate catalysts included Oiltek’s major contract win, CLAR’s capital raising and UI Boustead REIT’s SGX debut. Markets remained cautious, with heightened geopolitical risks amplifying concerns over supply disruptions and oil-price pressures.
We publish today our comprehensive quarterly bible: 243 pages of detailed analyses on what happened in the last 3 months, and how we interpret it, in light of our current convictions. The first section acts as a PM summary, outlining our key findings, and latest thoughts on the semi cycle, in 6 slides:
Top Stories Strategy | Singapore Stock Picks In A Turbulent Market With war clouds, an oil shock, and market volatility, we focus on Singapore’s defensive sectors and quality blue-chip names. Deployment of funds from MAS’ Equity Market Development Programme could provide some respite in March and April. Key stock picks are CLAR, CLI, CIT, DBS, DFI, KEP, SE, ST, YZJSGD, ASL, CAREIT, CSE, DELFI, FEH, IFAST, UGAI and VALUE. Market Spotlight US stocks were higher on Monday, with all indexes risi...
Greater China Economics | China China set a 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5-5.0% yoy, in line with expectations, while maintaining a 4% fiscal deficit ratio. Fiscal policy remains the main growth driver, supported by Rmb4.4t in local government special bonds and Rmb1.3t in ultra-long treasury bonds, while monetary policy stays accommodative. Policy priorities focus on AI+, New Quality Productive Forces, industrial upgrading, and targeted consumption support, alongside welfare improvements and ...
Singapore equities extended gains in February, with the STI rising 1.8% to near the 5,000 level after reaching a record high above 5,040. Market sentiment was supported by steady manufacturing expansion and selective corporate strength, including Yangzijiang Shipbuilding’s strong earnings. Global markets remained cautious amid AI-related concerns, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East raised risks of higher oil prices.
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls Chinese equities recovered in January, with the HSI and MSCI China rising 6.9% and 5.0% mom, respectively. Given the supportive macro policy environment, we maintain a constructive view on the markets despite risk of further volatility in February. Accordingly, we are adding Alibaba, Ganfeng Lithium, and Minth to our BUY list, while adding Meituan to our SELL list. Indonesia Company Results | Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ/B...
Singapore equities delivered a strong January performance, with the STI rising 5.6% to fresh record highs amid heightened geopolitical tensions that drove flight-to-safety flows. Manufacturing activity remained in mild expansion, led by electronics and AI-related demand. Market/corporate catalysts during the month include REIT earnings, IPO interest in Catalist and continued strength in gold-linked counters.
We publish today our comprehensive quarterly bible: 242 pages of detailed analysis on what happened in the last 3 months, and how we interpret it, in light of our current convictions. The first section acts as a PM summary, outlining our key findings, and latest thoughts on the semi cycle, in 6 slides:
Back to Near-Term Bullish on SPX and QQQ We downgraded our near-term outlook on the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) to neutral last week (11/19/25 Compass), after being bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 Compass). Crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ held last week, and we are right back to being near-term bullish as long as these support levels continue to hold. Just know that SPX could see...
n this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
Tower revenue trends were stable at a slower pace across the board except for India’s Indus Tower as it benefited from VIL’s network catch up spend. However, EBITDA margins continue to generally improve except in Indonesia which faces the near-term pressure of the XL-Smartfren consolidation. We continue to see IHS as our preferred EM Towerco as it recovers from the numerous challenges of the past few years. We have upgraded our price targets for HIS (to US$10) and Helios (to £1.80).
We publish today our comprehensive quarterly bible: 229 pages of detailed analyses on what happened in the last 3 months, and how we interpret it, in light of our current convictions. The first section acts as a PM summary, outlining our key findings, and latest thoughts on the semi cycle, in 6 slides. Please follow the link below for more details.
Attractive yield differentials. With Singapore government bond yields trending lower, the yield differential between fixed income and equities has narrowed in 2025, thus reinforcing the relative appeal of companies offering high, sustainable dividend payouts. Equity yields in the 4-6% range now offer a compelling pickup versus the 10-year Singapore Government Bond yield (1.8579% as at 4 Sep 25), while also providing potential for capital gains. In our view, this widening yield gap should support...
Following a similar note we published on the EM Telco sector, we apply the same consistent approach to Equity FCF for Global EM Towers. We have preferred Telcos over Towers for some time, as the drivers of upside for the Telcos (consolidation and declining capital intensity) is a headwind for the Towers.
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