reports
- Chris Hoare
Japanese Telcos Q4 FY24 review: Inflationary telco market
Japan’s mobile sector accelerated again in Q4 and we think is heading to above inflation. With both KDDI and DCM recently announcing price increases the environment is increasingly benign and should be helped by NTT’s recent acquisition of SBI Sumishin Net Bank. Our recent trip to Japan highlighted how positive the environment is; NTT stays our preferred pick, with KDDI closely behind.
- Chris Hoare
Takeaways from Meetings with the Japanese Telcos + Rakuten in Tokyo. D...
We met with all 3 of the incumbent Japanese Telcos & Rakuten in Tokyo last week, as well as visiting Osaka to talk to NTT in more depth about IOWN. Overall, we remain bullish on Japanese telcos operationally and buyers of all three incumbents. NTT remains our top pick followed by KDDI.
- Chris Hoare
KDDI (Buy, ¥3,150, +22%) Q4 24 Quick Take: Good revenue growth; big b...
KDDI reported a better top-line, and generous shareholder remuneration. However, guidance is largely in line and leaves us wondering what happens after the company hits it in March ’26. Within this space, NTT remains our preferred pick on potential upside catalysts (IOWN revenue optionality, NTT Data and Fixed line rebound) while KDDI remains a close second with a ¥3,150 price target.
- Pelham Smithers
PSA Strategy: Japan Stock Market Quarterly for 2025 Q2
In this quarterly strategy report, we look to evaluate where we are with regards the bull market conditions, and where those indicators might be headed, factoring in the downside risks, from Trump tariffs and the US economy, BoJ actions, Japanese earnings and valuations.
AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS INC.
6146 DISCO CORPORATION
5108 BRIDGESTONE CORPORATION
7751 CANON INC.
9697 CAPCOM CO. LTD.
4519 CHUGAI PHARMACEUTICAL CO. LTD.
4755 RAKUTEN INC.
9684 SQUARE ENIX HOLDINGS CO. LTD.
8473 SBI HOLDINGS INC.
6954 FANUC CORPORATION
4324 DENTSU GROUP INC.
6861 KEYENCE CORPORATION
6869 SYSMEX CORPORATION
8306 MITSUBISHI UFJ FINANCIAL GROUP INC.
6501 HITACHI LTD.
6305 HITACHI CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY CO. LTD.
7267 HONDA MOTOR CO. LTD.
6301 KOMATSU LTD.
6503 MITSUBISHI ELECTRIC CORP.
6723 RENESAS ELECTRONICS CORPORATION
7974 NINTENDO CO. LTD.
6594 NIDEC CORPORATION
7731 NIKON CORP.
8604 NOMURA HOLDINGS INC.
7733 OLYMPUS CORP.
4666 PARK24 CO. LTD.
2371 KAKAKU.COM INC.
9984 SOFTBANK GROUP CORP.
1803 SHIMIZU CORPORATION
4063 SHIN-ETSU CHEMICAL CO LTD
6758 SONY CORPORATION
7269 SUZUKI MOTOR CORP.
1801 TAISEI CORP
6857 ADVANTEST CORP.
4186 TOKYO OHKA KOGYO CO. LTD.
8035 TOKYO ELECTRON LTD.
7203 TOYOTA MOTOR CORP.
2413 M3 INC.
2160 GNI GROUP LTD.
3659 NEXON CO. LTD.
6098 RECRUIT HOLDINGS CO. LTD.
3769 GMO PAYMENT
6460 JP SEGA SAMMY
4385 MERCARI INC.
3993 PKSHA TECHNOLOGY INC.
9434 SOFTBANK CORP.
78320 BANDAI NAMCO
45870 PEPTIDREAM INC
3491 JT GA TECHNOLOGIES
3394 JT MONEY FOWARD
6532 JT BAYCURRENT CONSULTING (6532 JT)
4483 JMDC
4180 JP APPIER GROUP
TSE: 2980 SRE HOLDINGS CORP
4194 VISIONAL INC
6526 SOCIONEXT INC
5032 JT ANYCOLOR INC
5838 RAKUTEN BANK LTD.
5253 JT COVER CORPORATION (5253 JT)
9616 JT KYORITSU MAINTENANCE (9616 JT)
- Chris Hoare
KDDI (Buy, ¥6,600, +25%) Q3 24 Quick Take: Improving bottom-line; exp...
KDDI reported an improved bottom-line trend, supported by its steady topline and Lawson’s contribution. While mobile ARPU was marginally down in Q3, it was still growing sequentially, and the company anticipates mobile communication ARPU revenue to inflect back to growth in the next quarter on the back of continued up-trading and UQ to AU brand migration.
- Pelham Smithers
TTWO TAKE-TWO INTERACTIVE SOFTWARE INC.
9697 CAPCOM CO. LTD.
9684 SQUARE ENIX HOLDINGS CO. LTD.
9766 KONAMI HOLDINGS CORP
7974 NINTENDO CO. LTD.
6758 SONY CORPORATION
3659 NEXON CO. LTD.
EA ELECTRONIC ARTS INC.
MSFT MICROSOFT CORPORATION
6460 JP SEGA SAMMY
78320 BANDAI NAMCO
36350 KOEI TECMO
- Chris Hoare
Japanese Telcos & Internet What to expect in 2025: Mixed
After 3 good years, 2024 was not great for the Japanese incumbents; with KDDI and SoftBank rising modestly and NTT falling, but all underperforming the Nikkei. In our view, risk is rising in Mobile, although we continue to see the sector as fundamentally undervalued. Rakuten performed well in 2024, but this was really to do with balance sheet risk easing on the back of cost cutting/refinancing rather than better traction in Mobile.
- Chris Hoare
Japanese Telcos Q2 FY24 review: Stable growth with better profitabili...
Service revenue slowed for the incumbents but stayed in the low-single digit band, with Softbank still ahead followed by NTT. Mobile divergence continues to play out with SB leading the pack and is likely to remain so in our view. Industry EBITDA improved as NTT inflected to growth and led to a strong EBIT beat this quarter.
- Pelham Smithers
- Pelham Smithers
PSA Media & Entertainment: Nexon (3659 JT) FY24 Q3
With a disappointing Q3, 2024 is proving to be a disappointment for Nexon, with revenues and profits not much improved from 2023 despite the augmented content. However, if earnings haven’t increased this year, neither has the share price, and that is really the only saving grace about this performance, which perhaps suggests that the lacklustre performance is now in the price.
- Chris Hoare
KDDI (Buy, TP: ¥6,600, +39%) KDDI indicating a structural step up in S...
KDDI today announced an increase in their share buyback from ¥300-¥400bn this year. On the call, the company indicated that this pace could be maintained at least for next year suggesting a structural increase in share buybacks. Thoughts below.
- Chris Hoare
KDDI (Buy, TP: ¥6,600, +39%) Q2 24 Quick Take: Softer against tougher ...
KDDI’s results were okay in Q2 as it was pegged against a tougher comparable. Topline remained ahead of expectations while EBIT was slightly behind YTD though we believe it is likely to improve on the back of DX, synergies from Lawson, mobile and declining roaming losses from Rakuten
- Chris Hoare
- Pelham Smithers
PSA Strategy: Japan Stock Market Quarterly 2024 Q4
When the BoJ raised rates in March, it had been 17 years since it had last done so, though the world was very different then. While the July rate hike was unlikely to move the economic needle, the question now is what else might follow the subsequent financial market maelstrom. Pelham Smithers discusses the outlook for Japan’s macro environment, what new fiscal policies the new PM might introduce, how the BoJ might react and the all-important trend in corporate earnings. This then leads us to...
6754 ANRITSU CORPORATION
7751 CANON INC.
4519 CHUGAI PHARMACEUTICAL CO. LTD.
4751 CYBERAGENT INC.
4755 RAKUTEN INC.
3107 DAIWABO HOLDINGS CO. LTD.
8473 SBI HOLDINGS INC.
6954 FANUC CORPORATION
4324 DENTSU GROUP INC.
6861 KEYENCE CORPORATION
4902 KONICA MINOLTA INC.
6988 NITTO DENKO CORP.
7752 RICOH COMPANY LTD.
6869 SYSMEX CORPORATION
3064 MONOTARO CO. LTD.
5801 FURUKAWA ELECTRIC CO. LTD.
5715 FURUKAWA CO. LTD.
7205 HINO MOTORS LTD.
6501 HITACHI LTD.
6305 HITACHI CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY CO. LTD.
7267 HONDA MOTOR CO. LTD.
7012 KAWASAKI HEAVY INDUSTRIES LTD.
9107 KAWASAKI KISEN KAISHA LTD.
6971 KYOCERA CORPORATION
8316 SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GROUP INC.
6503 MITSUBISHI ELECTRIC CORP.
5632 MITSUBISHI STEEL MANUFACTURING CO. LTD.
5706 MITSUI MINING AND SMELTING COMPANY LIMITED
6966 MITSUI HIGH-TEC INC.
6902 DENSO CORPORATION
6701 NEC CORP.
6594 NIDEC CORPORATION
7201 NISSAN MOTOR CO. LTD.
4666 PARK24 CO. LTD.
6268 NABTESCO CORPORATION
2371 KAKAKU.COM INC.
9984 SOFTBANK GROUP CORP.
8136 SANRIO COMPANY LTD.
6758 SONY CORPORATION
5802 SUMITOMO ELECTRIC INDUSTRIES LTD.
6762 TDK CORPORATION
6976 TAIYO YUDEN CO. LTD.
6315 TOWA CORPORATION
7203 TOYOTA MOTOR CORP.
4208 UBE INDUSTRIES LTD.
8698 MONEX GROUP INC.
3774 INTERNET INITIATIVE JAPAN
3765 GUNGHO ONLINE ENTERTAINMENT INC.
2160 GNI GROUP LTD.
3659 NEXON CO. LTD.
3445 RS TECHNOLOGIES CO. LTD.
6269 MODEC INC
3769 GMO PAYMENT
68900 FERROTEC CORPORATION
9519 RENOVA
4385 MERCARI INC.
3993 PKSHA TECHNOLOGY INC.
3626 JT TIS INC
9434 SOFTBANK CORP.
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
TGIF 1933 INDUSTRIES
7071 AMVIS HOLDINGS
78320 BANDAI NAMCO
45870 PEPTIDREAM INC
4443 JT SANSAN (4443 JT)
3491 JT GA TECHNOLOGIES
3394 JT MONEY FOWARD
4480 MEDLEY
RRRP3 3R PETROLEUM OLEO E GAS
6532 JT BAYCURRENT CONSULTING (6532 JT)
3697 JT SHIFT INCORPORATED (3697 JT)
4483 JMDC
4180 JP APPIER GROUP
TSE: 2980 SRE HOLDINGS CORP
4194 VISIONAL INC
9552 M&A RESEARCH INSTITUTE
123F 123FAHRSCHULE SE
9616 JT KYORITSU MAINTENANCE (9616 JT)
9552 JT M&A RESEARCH INSTITUTE (9552 JT)
6544 JT JAPAN ELEVATOR SERVICES HOLDINGS (6544 JT)
6200 JT INSOURCE (6200 JT)
2154 JT OPEN UP GROUP (2154 JT)
- Chris Hoare
Japanese Telcos - Takeaways from Meetings with the Japanese Telcos + R...
We met with all 3 of the incumbent Japanese Telcos & Rakuten in Tokyo this week. Every time we visit, we are reminded of how much better the telco industry is in Japan vs other DMs, as the MNOs continue to expand their scope of operations beyond traditional telco driving higher returns and growth.
- Pelham Smithers
- Pelham Smithers
A117ME ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD. SPONSORED ADR
9697 CAPCOM CO. LTD.
4751 CYBERAGENT INC.
9684 SQUARE ENIX HOLDINGS CO. LTD.
3656 KLAB INC.
9766 KONAMI HOLDINGS CORP
7974 NINTENDO CO. LTD.
6758 SONY CORPORATION
2432 DENA CO. LTD.
3765 GUNGHO ONLINE ENTERTAINMENT INC.
3659 NEXON CO. LTD.
6460 JP SEGA SAMMY
36350 KOEI TECMO
ONEM 1LIFE HEALTHCARE
- Pelham Smithers
6146 DISCO CORPORATION
AJIT ABERDEEN JAPAN INVESTMENT TRUST
7735 SCREEN HOLDINGS CO. LTD
9684 SQUARE ENIX HOLDINGS CO. LTD.
4902 KONICA MINOLTA INC.
7752 RICOH COMPANY LTD.
3064 MONOTARO CO. LTD.
6305 HITACHI CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY CO. LTD.
7974 NINTENDO CO. LTD.
7201 NISSAN MOTOR CO. LTD.
6758 SONY CORPORATION
8035 TOKYO ELECTRON LTD.
7203 TOYOTA MOTOR CORP.
ADSB ABU DHABI SHIP BUILDING
8086 ADVANCED WIRELESS SEMICONDUCTOR
6632 JVCKENWOOD
3659 NEXON CO. LTD.
78320 BANDAI NAMCO
- Chris Hoare
KDDI (Buy, TP: ¥6,600, +51%) Q1 24 Quick Take: Solid
KDDI reported after close today, with both topline and EBIT tracking slightly ahead of full year guidance. Enterprise continued to show good momentum and helped support the topline beat. With Lawson delisted since July, the deal is expected to be completed by September, as planned. Multi-brand mobile revenue continues to trend positively, with positive commentary around the transition from UQ mobile to AU brand.
- Pelham Smithers
9684 SQUARE ENIX HOLDINGS CO. LTD.
3656 KLAB INC.
3932 AKATSUKI INC.
9766 KONAMI HOLDINGS CORP
6758 SONY CORPORATION
2432 DENA CO. LTD.
3765 GUNGHO ONLINE ENTERTAINMENT INC.
3659 NEXON CO. LTD.
6460 JP SEGA SAMMY
GRVY GRAVITY CO. LTD. ADS
21210 MIXI
651 GREE ELECTRIC APPLIANCES
78320 BANDAI NAMCO
36350 KOEI TECMO
1954.T NIPPON KOEI CO LTD
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