German FTTH Deep-Dive: It should be worth the wait Rational structure...

Growth in German broadband market volumes is slowing, but that isn’t the end of the world as we see ever-increasing evidence of a rational market structure evolving with fibre overbuild likely to be far lower than in most other markets. This should support a rational pricing outlook and de-risk the payback on high levels of FTTH capex per premise.

Vodafone (Buy, £1.20, +40%) Q1 26: Clearer evidence of value over volu...

Vodafone’s Q1 results do show some signs of improving revenue growth in Germany with a more disciplined approach to pricing. We think Vodafone still looks very attractively priced at the moment, but we believe a longer-term outlook from management would help to underpin more confidence in the investment case.

Vodafone (Buy, £1.20, +50%) Tele Columbus (Overweight) German TV refr...

Over the past year, Vodafone and TeleColumbus have been hugely affected by the MDU bulk migration. However, going into the second half of 2025, we will start to lap this impact so trends will revert to something more “normal”.

Tele Columbus - ESG Report - Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: PeopleCert, Stada, Kiloutou, Loxam, CeramTec, Progroup, Playtech, Tele Columbus, CBR Fashion, Best Secret (Schustermann & Borenstein), Grunenthal, Novafives, Intrum, Profine, Flos B&B Italia (formerly International Design Group), Odido, Multiversity, Paprec Group, Cheplapharm, Engineering Group, Itelyum Group, Motel One, Tereos, Iberconsa, Stena AB, Mooney (formerly SisalPay)

TeleColumbus (Overweight) Updated model and outlook post Q1 results

TeleColumbus reported Q1 results last night – and for our detailed review of the quarter, please see our note HERE.Now, following the management call, we publish an updated model to reflect the comments around the more competitive environment in the market. In this note, we run through our changes to estimates, liquidity and valuation.

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Progroup, Atalian, Loxam, Salt, United Group, Altice France (SFR), TeamSystem, Altice International, VodafoneZiggo, Tele Columbus, Kiloutou, Techem, THOM Europe, EnQuest Plc, Grunenthal, Cirsa, SIG plc, Derichebourg, Forgital, Vallourec, Mahle, CABB, Stena AB, Bertrand Franchise, Canpack, Benteler International, Azelis, Motel One, Grupo Antolin

TeleColumbus (Overweight) Q1 25: Pricing power leads to KPI wobble

TeleColumbus Q1 results would suggest the introduction of some long-awaited pricing power on their broadband product, but this has been offset by weaker KPIs. EBITDA in Q1 was also slightly weaker than expected on higher costs.

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Kiloutou, Tele Columbus, Odido, Guala Closures, Tereos, Sasol, Novafives, Paprec Group, CMA CGM, Bertrand Franchise, CBR Fashion, Grunenthal

Europe HY Trade Book - May 2025 - Lucror Analytics

The Europe HY Trade Book for May 2025 includes current trade recommendations drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry. We also discuss the US tariff situation and key related impacts.

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: AMS Osram, Nexans, Lowell, Aston Martin, Constellium, Pfleiderer, Loewen Play, Pasubio, Motel One, Synthomer, Ineos Quattro, Air France-KLM, Tele Columbus, Selecta, Progroup, SIG plc, Modulaire, Hapag-Lloyd, Adler Pelzer, International Personal Finance, Stena AB, Standard Profil, Bombardier, Ontex, Vedanta Resources, Cirsa

Tele Columbus - Earnings Flash - Q4 FY 2024 Results - Lucror Analytics

Tele Columbus has published its Q4 and FY 2024 results, with revenues down 15.2% y-o-y for Q4 and 5.7% for the full year. The Q4 figures were largely in line with trends observed earlier in the year, though the impact of the pay-TV bulk to individual contract migration was more severe over the quarter. Meanwhile, broadband revenues continued to expand at a fast pace. However, cash generation was very weak due to capex needs, and we believe leverage is excessive. 

TeleColumbus Q4 results and 2025 outlook – Bullish thesis intact

TeleColumbus has just reported their 2024 results and provided 2025 guidance for the first time. We remain bullish on the credit story for the company and see increased conviction from the management team on their path to a fibre stronghold in their footprint.

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Neopharmed, PureGym, Rexel, Flos B&B Italia (formerly International Design Group), David Lloyd Leisure, Odido, Liberty Global, Infopro Digital, Eircom, Tele Columbus, McLaren, Nexans, Fedrigoni, Stada, Grupo Antolin, Cerba, Klockner Pentaplast, Cheplapharm, Crown Holdings, Motel One, Stena AB, Casino Guichard-Perrachon

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Eircom, Tele Columbus, Stada, Ahlstrom, AMS Osram, Aston Martin, Axactor, Constellium, Lowell, Vallourec, Versuni (formerly Philips Domestic Appliances), CEMEX, Engineering Group, Infopro Digital, Ineos, Motel One, Cerba, Polynt, Standard Profil, Air France-KLM, Crown Holdings, Recordati

TeleColumbus (Overweight) Potential ServCo sale: Implications and ref...

TeleColumbus’ NetCo/ ServCo separation is progressing quicker than we had expected and we believe the company is now seriously exploring a ServCo sale as a route to reduce debt and enhance equity value. TeleColumbus’ current 10% PIK note arguably sees an excessive transfer of value from equity holders to debt holders given our view that the company has asset coverage > 100%.

EU TELCOS: What a recessionary scenario might look like

When the news of the Trump tariffs first hit the tapes, we didn’t write anything initially as a) we didn’t think we had much of value to add to the thousands of column inches already written on the topic, and b) the direct impact from the tariffs to the EU telecoms sector is minimal – resulting in relative outperformance for the group over the past few days.

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Tele Columbus, EVOCA, Softbank Group, Forvia (formerly Faurecia), Motel One, Allwyn (formerly Sazka), Vallourec, Oriflame, Intrum

European High Yield Investment Outlook 2025 - Lucror Analytics

In this publication, we review the past year and discuss our outlook for the next 12 months. We begin our discussion with the macro factors at play, including GDP forecasts, the geopolitical landscape and our expectations for cost inflation. We also trace the development of primary markets in the European HY space, and give our view on defaults in general as well as for our coverage universe. We then discuss sector trends and expectations, along with earnings development for companies under our ...

Europe HY Trade Book - December 2024 - Lucror Analytics

The Europe HY Trade Book for December 2024 includes current trade recommendations drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry.