Tele2 (Hold, TP: SEK140.00) - Drivers of cash flow to be reversed

Tele2 reported a solid Q1 with a beat on EBITDA, and especially strong cash flow, which was related to one-off items that are mostly expected to be reversed in coming quarters. We reiterate our HOLD and SEK140 target price.

Executing margin improvements

Tele2 (Neutral, TP: SEK 130, -1%) Q1 25: A strong start to the year

Tele2 has reported a good set of results, with a strong inflection in EBITDAaL trends, and EBITDAaL is +2.6% ahead of consensus (albeit c50% of the EBITDAaL beat is due to a Lithuania cost deferral). The key question is whether or not this is a pull forward of the already announced cost savings, or a new higher level?

Cost control on point

Heads-up for report 23 April

Tele2 (Hold, TP: SEK140.00) - Beneficiary of peak uncertainty

With the new main owner doubling down on costs, and a limited FX/tariff impact, Tele2 has significantly outperformed the OMX Benchmark index over the past two years. We believe a solid Q1 report is priced in, and have downgraded the stock to HOLD (BUY), but have raised our target price to SEK140 (135) on prospects of a tower deal.

Improving cash flows, but still pricey

Ready for '25 acceleration

Tele2 (Buy, TP: SEK135.00) - Higher ambitions outlined

Tele2 reported a soft Q4, but launched a cost reduction programme, reducing its workforce by c15%. We believe this will lead to improved EBITDA growth from 2025e. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to SEK135 (130).

Efficiencies in the making

Tele2 (Neutral, TP: SEK 115, 0%) Q4 24: A slightly weak set of Q4 numb...

Tele2 has reported a slightly weak set of Q4 numbers, with end-user SR -0.3% light of consensus, and EBITDAaL -1.0% light. EFCF is -15% light, but this is due to a change in a coupon payment timing and cash tax (hard to forecast) – adjusting for both, EFCF is 6% ahead. Away from Q4, new guidance for 2025 is strong, with an upgrade to EBITDAaL guidance to “mid to high single digit” from “MSD”; implied capex is slightly lower than expected, meaning that OpFCF for 2025 is 6% ahead of consensus. The...

DPS disappointment but accelerated savings

Heads-up for report 29 January

Tele2 (Buy, TP: SEK130.00) - Iliad likely to act on costs

On tougher comparables, we expect slower EBITDA growth YOY in Q4 than in the previous quarters, which could also affect the 2025 guidance. However, in our view, we should also start to see what Iliad can do to improve performance from 2025. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK130 (120).

Growth uncertainty as inflation tapers off

Tough comps for 1% EBITDAaL growth

Expert speaker takeaways: ARPU and capex plans

Tele2 (Buy, TP: SEK120.00) - 9% sustainable dividend yield

We have made limited estimate revisions on sales and EBITDA following the Q3 report. With net debt below the company’s target (2.5–3x), we believe Tele2 will return to paying a special dividend in 2025e, where we forecast a 9% dividend yield. We reiterate our SEK120 target price and have upgraded to BUY (HOLD).

Decent Q3 but unfavourable mix

Tele2 (Neutral, TP: SEK 109, -2%) Q3 24: A slightly weak set of numbe...

Tele2 has reported a slightly weak set of Q3 numbers with end-user SR -1.0% light of consensus expectations, and EBITDAaL -0.8% light, and EFCF -16% light (thanks to NWC and tax). All guidance has been reiterated