Tele2 (Buy, TP: SEK120.00) - 9% sustainable dividend yield

We have made limited estimate revisions on sales and EBITDA following the Q3 report. With net debt below the company’s target (2.5–3x), we believe Tele2 will return to paying a special dividend in 2025e, where we forecast a 9% dividend yield. We reiterate our SEK120 target price and have upgraded to BUY (HOLD).

Decent Q3 but unfavourable mix

Tele2 (Neutral, TP: SEK 109, -2%) Q3 24: A slightly weak set of numbe...

Tele2 has reported a slightly weak set of Q3 numbers with end-user SR -1.0% light of consensus expectations, and EBITDAaL -0.8% light, and EFCF -16% light (thanks to NWC and tax). All guidance has been reiterated

Swedish deceleration explains small miss

Heads-up for report 22 October

Appoints Jean Marc Harion as CEO

Awaiting Freya actions

Q3e: underlying EBITDAaL growth of 4% on tougher pricing comps. Limited underlying revisions, but inserting '24e EO dividend of SEK 1. Triggers exist, and we still favour Tele2 vs.Telia, but keep HOLD.

Tele2 (Hold, TP: SEK120.00) - Down to HOLD on strong performance

Tele2’s share price is up ~36% YTD and we believe it is time for investors to take a breather. We are marginally below consensus for Q3e and we believe expectations from the effect of iliad as a new owner is reflected in the share price. Thus, we have downgraded to HOLD (BUY) and raised our target price to SEK120 (115).

CEO stepping down, but no drama

Tele2 AB: 2 directors

A director at Tele2 AB bought 6,531,199 shares at 97.550SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly ...

Balancing improvements with tougher comps

Tele2 (Buy, TP: SEK115.00) - Meeting the guidance

With a solid H1 report, we believe Tele2 is about to reach the upper end of its 2024 guidance on service revenue and EBITDA, and that the solid balance sheet offers room for a special dividend. We reiterate our BUY and SEK115 target price.

Tele2 (Neutral, TP: SEK109, +4%) Q2 24: A solid set of numbers, guid...

Tele2 has reported a solid set of Q2 numbers with end-user SR +0.4% ahead of consensus expectations, and EBITDAaL -0.3% light. All guidance has been reiterated. Guidance for 2025 implies some upside to consensus numbers, but visibility is low as beats will probably come from cost cutting as SR trends have been broadly stable for 2+ years.

In line and unchanged guidance

Heads-up for report 17 July

Tele2 (Buy, TP: SEK115.00) - Upside potential on guidance

We are marginally above Q2 consensus on service revenue and EBITDA (we forecast c4% growth YOY), and see potential for a raised 2024 EBITDA guidance (results due at 07:00 CET on 17 July). We reiterate our BUY, and have increased our target price to SEK115 (110).

Re-rated, time to catch a breath

We forecast end-user service revenue and adj. EBITDAaL of SEK 5.47bn and SEK 2.61bn, respectively, for 4% organic growth and a margin of 35.6%.

Tele2 (Buy, TP: SEK110.00) - Solid start to 2024

Tele2 reported 2.1% growth in the quarter it expected to be the weakest of the year, suggesting upside potential for its 2024 guidance of 1–3% growth. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK110 (106).

Tele2 (Neutral, TP: SEK 110, +13%) Q1 24: A good start to the Europea...

Tele2 has reported a good set of Q1 numbers with EBITDAal +1.2% ahead of consensus expectations and at EFCF +24% ahead. Total end-user SR accelerated to +4.3% YoY (+3.4% in Q4), supported by the earlier phasing of price rises in Sweden this year. EBITDAaL growth (ex energy) slowed to +2.5% y/y (+4.0% in Q4), although this was better than had been messaged by the company in the pre results call, which probably explains the strong share price move today.

Tele2 (Buy, TP: SEK106.00) - New owner increases appeal

We do not view the Q1 report as a trigger event, as Tele2 has guided for flat EBITDA growth. We prefer Telia over Tele2 over the quarter. That said, we note Xavier Niel’s achievements in costs and cash flow at Millicom in a short time and believe investors could piggy-back on a strong industrial owner. We reiterate our BUY and have raised target price to SEK106 (100).