Expert speaker call: latent market share gains

Tele2 AB: 2 directors

A director at Tele2 AB bought 4,500 shares at 144.000SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 71/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly show...

Telenor ASA: 1 director

A director at Telenor ASA bought 3,247 shares at 154.000NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 69/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly s...

True EBITDA flat q-o-q, but above ABGSC

Telenor (Sell, TP: NOK142.00) - Mixed set of results

While Telenor reported decent Q1 headline results adjusted for a one-off VAT provision in Norway, slightly above consensus and our estimates, the FCF beat was seemingly driven by lower-quality transitory tailwinds, leaving us still uncertain about its ability to cover its dividends with underlying FCF before M&A this year and in 2026. Thus, given our view of a stretched company and sector valuation, we reiterate our SELL, while we have raised our target price to NOK142 (140).

Stretched valuation and likely slowdown ahead

Telenor (Buy, TP: NOK 183, +17%) Q1 25: Strong results support contin...

Telenor has reported a good set of Q1 numbers, with SR c0.5% ahead of consensus and EBITDA in line; 2025 guidance was re-iterated, which is now in line with consensus expectations, but we think this could be raised later in the year if the further OpEx efficiencies management are expecting are realised.

Coffee, Croissants & Credit/Telenor, Heimstaden Bostad, Castellum

Telecom - Telenor reports good 1Q25 results

Nordics above, but other segments below

Tele2 (Hold, TP: SEK140.00) - Drivers of cash flow to be reversed

Tele2 reported a solid Q1 with a beat on EBITDA, and especially strong cash flow, which was related to one-off items that are mostly expected to be reversed in coming quarters. We reiterate our HOLD and SEK140 target price.

Executing margin improvements

Tele2 (Neutral, TP: SEK 130, -1%) Q1 25: A strong start to the year

Tele2 has reported a good set of results, with a strong inflection in EBITDAaL trends, and EBITDAaL is +2.6% ahead of consensus (albeit c50% of the EBITDAaL beat is due to a Lithuania cost deferral). The key question is whether or not this is a pull forward of the already announced cost savings, or a new higher level?

Cost control on point

Telenor (Sell, TP: NOK140.00) - Q1e slightly below consensus

We have made only limited estimate changes (except for an accounting change for the treatment of write-offs in associates) and are slightly below consensus on Q1e revenues, service revenues, adj. EBITDA, net profit and FCF. With Nordics opex cuts looking set to be back-end loaded this year, we expect Q1 to be a relatively uneventful quarter. We will look for more clarity on lower-quality cash flow tailwinds with regard to Telenor’s ability to cover its dividends with FCF before M&A this year, wh...

Heads-up for report 23 April

Tele2 (Hold, TP: SEK140.00) - Beneficiary of peak uncertainty

With the new main owner doubling down on costs, and a limited FX/tariff impact, Tele2 has significantly outperformed the OMX Benchmark index over the past two years. We believe a solid Q1 report is priced in, and have downgraded the stock to HOLD (BUY), but have raised our target price to SEK140 (135) on prospects of a tower deal.