We have made limited estimate revisions on sales and EBITDA following the Q3 report. With net debt below the company’s target (2.5–3x), we believe Tele2 will return to paying a special dividend in 2025e, where we forecast a 9% dividend yield. We reiterate our SEK120 target price and have upgraded to BUY (HOLD).
Invitation to Telenor Group’s results for the third quarter 2024 Join us for Telenor Group’s results for the third quarter 2024 When: Wednesday 30th October, 0900 CET / 0800 UKT. To view the webcast, without participating in the live Q&A, please visit: or visit Telenor.com/investors The presentation will be available via Webcast only. For media: A separate press meeting will be held at 10.30 CET at Telenor HUB, Snarøyveien 30, Fornebu. The media session will be held in Norwegian. To RSVP, please email: This information is subject to the disclosure requirements pursua...
While we are only just below consensus on 2024–2026e adj. EBITDA, we are well below on FCF before M&A, and reiterate our SELL given our concerns Telenor will struggle to meet its 2025 capex-cutting ambitions for the Nordics amid headwinds, e.g. the ongoing fibre roll-out. Longer-term, we struggle to get excited about easing capex requirements, particularly in Norway, where competitive pressure is only likely to ratchet up. However, we have raised our target price to NOK125 (110).
We reiterate our BUY and SEK38 target price ahead of the Q3 report (due at 07:00 CET on 24 October). Telia has indicated negative EBITDA growth YOY on tough comparables in the quarter, but we believe cost savings should lead to high-single-digit EBITDA growth for 2025.
Telenor has been a good YTD performer, with the shares +17%. This has been in the large part driven by the impressive share price performance of TRUE, >100% YTD. We recently held an NDR with TRUE management (HERE) and continue to be very bullish on the outlook. Following those meetings we are lifting our target on TRUE to THB18/share from THB15/share.
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