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Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

Telenor (Buy, TP: NOK 180, +30%) Q3 24: Nordic guidance lifted, and y...

Telenor has reported a solid set of Q3 numbers (c1% EBITDA beat) and has lifted some key Nordic guidance parameters: Group FCF guidance for 2024 and 2025 is now +6% and +11% ahead of consensus respectively.

ABGSC Telecom Operators Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Telecom Operators Research
  • Herman Caspersen
  • Oscar Rönnkvist
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
ABGSC Telecom Operators Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Telecom Operators Research
  • Herman Caspersen
  • Oscar Rönnkvist
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
Stefan Gauffin
  • Stefan Gauffin

Telia Company (Buy, TP: SEK38.00) - Performing despite weaker top line

Telia reported a soft top line, but still reported 1.7% EBITDA growth YOY. For Q4e, we see an acceleration of EBITDA growth to 6%, which we expect to continue into 2025. We reiterate our BUY and SEK38 target price.

ABGSC Telecom Operators Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Telecom Operators Research
  • Oscar Rönnkvist
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
  • Simon Granath
Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

Telia (Neutral, TP: SEK 35, +7%) Q3 24: Good numbers, Sept CMD provid...

Telia has reported a good set of numbers at the EBITDA level but a little weak at SR. This might be the pattern for the next few quarters, as cost is taken out, but SR stagnates in the run-up to price increases.

Jan Frederik Slijkerman ... (+5)
  • Jan Frederik Slijkerman
  • Jeroen van den Broek
  • Jesse Norcross
  • Nadège Tillier
  • Timothy Rahill

Coffee, Croissants & Credit/Telia, Orange

Telecom: Telia 3Q24 results look solid. Orange 3Q24 revenue update has no surprises

ABGSC Telecom Operators Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Telecom Operators Research
  • Oscar Rönnkvist
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
  • Simon Granath
Stefan Gauffin
  • Stefan Gauffin

Tele2 (Buy, TP: SEK120.00) - 9% sustainable dividend yield

We have made limited estimate revisions on sales and EBITDA following the Q3 report. With net debt below the company’s target (2.5–3x), we believe Tele2 will return to paying a special dividend in 2025e, where we forecast a 9% dividend yield. We reiterate our SEK120 target price and have upgraded to BUY (HOLD).

ABGSC Telecom Operators Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Telecom Operators Research
  • Oscar Rönnkvist
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
  • Simon Granath
Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

Tele2 (Neutral, TP: SEK 109, -2%) Q3 24: A slightly weak set of numbe...

Tele2 has reported a slightly weak set of Q3 numbers with end-user SR -1.0% light of consensus expectations, and EBITDAaL -0.8% light, and EFCF -16% light (thanks to NWC and tax). All guidance has been reiterated

ABGSC Telecom Operators Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Telecom Operators Research
  • Oscar Rönnkvist
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
  • Simon Granath
ABGSC Telecom Operators Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Telecom Operators Research
  • Oscar Rönnkvist
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
  • Simon Granath
ABGSC Telecom Operators Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Telecom Operators Research
  • Oscar Rönnkvist
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
  • Simon Granath
 PRESS RELEASE

Invitation to Telenor Group’s results for the third quarter 2024

Invitation to Telenor Group’s results for the third quarter 2024 Join us for Telenor Group’s results for the third quarter 2024 When: Wednesday 30th October, 0900 CET / 0800 UKT. To view the webcast, without participating in the live Q&A, please visit:   or visit Telenor.com/investors The presentation will be available via Webcast only. For media: A separate press meeting will be held at 10.30 CET at Telenor HUB, Snarøyveien 30, Fornebu. The media session will be held in Norwegian.  To RSVP, please email: This information is subject to the disclosure requirements pursua...

ABGSC Telecom Operators Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Telecom Operators Research
  • Oscar Rönnkvist
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
  • Simon Granath
Christoffer Wang Bjørnsen
  • Christoffer Wang Bjørnsen

Telenor (Sell, TP: NOK125.00) - 2025 Nordics capex risk remains

While we are only just below consensus on 2024–2026e adj. EBITDA, we are well below on FCF before M&A, and reiterate our SELL given our concerns Telenor will struggle to meet its 2025 capex-cutting ambitions for the Nordics amid headwinds, e.g. the ongoing fibre roll-out. Longer-term, we struggle to get excited about easing capex requirements, particularly in Norway, where competitive pressure is only likely to ratchet up. However, we have raised our target price to NOK125 (110).

Stefan Gauffin
  • Stefan Gauffin

Telia Company (Buy, TP: SEK38.00) - Solid 2025e EBITDA momentum

We reiterate our BUY and SEK38 target price ahead of the Q3 report (due at 07:00 CET on 24 October). Telia has indicated negative EBITDA growth YOY on tough comparables in the quarter, but we believe cost savings should lead to high-single-digit EBITDA growth for 2025.

Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

Telenor (Buy, TP: NOK180, +32%) Telenor – Target up to NOK180, +32%, ...

Telenor has been a good YTD performer, with the shares +17%. This has been in the large part driven by the impressive share price performance of TRUE, >100% YTD. We recently held an NDR with TRUE management (HERE) and continue to be very bullish on the outlook. Following those meetings we are lifting our target on TRUE to THB18/share from THB15/share.

ABGSC Telecom Operators Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Telecom Operators Research
  • Oscar Rönnkvist
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
  • Simon Granath

Awaiting Freya actions

Q3e: underlying EBITDAaL growth of 4% on tougher pricing comps. Limited underlying revisions, but inserting '24e EO dividend of SEK 1. Triggers exist, and we still favour Tele2 vs.Telia, but keep HOLD.

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